Another NFL regular season in the books. If you were wondering (and I know you weren't) I finished 3rd place in fantasy football, carried by the arm of Cam Newton, the leg of David Akers, and the chubby little thighs of Maurice Jones-Drew. It is my best finish in recent memory, although I believe I captured 2nd many years ago, when things were much less organized (my mom and dad both managed teams, which they disregarded, and we had one team play the "average score" each week because we only had 9 participants). Also, after a sub-par start, I rallied to finish 130-126 in my picks. This may not seem impressive... and that's because its not. Moving on.
The playoffs begin tomorrow afternoon. For in-depth analysis, see my podcast posted on January 3 (if you haven't already). But I will also put my picks for the spreads, as well as the over/unders here as a quick reminder (Note: For those of you who are new to the blog and/or to NFL gambling, the "spread" is the number of points a team is expected to win or lose by shown as a + or - number -- so if the Patriots are expected to beat the Bills by 14 points, the line is Patriots -14 or Bills +14, they mean the same thing. The Over/Under is simply the total number of points scored by both teams in the game).
Saturday, January 7, 1:30 PM PST
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans
Blake likes: CIN +3 and UNDER 38.5
Saturday, January 7, 5:00 PM PST
Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints
Blake likes: NO -11 and OVER 59
Sunday January 8, 10:00 AM PST
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants
Blake likes: NYG -3 and UNDER 47
Sunday January 8, 1:30 PM PST
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos
Blake likes: PIT -9 and UNDER 34.5
Now just remember to take this advice with a grain of salt because I did only go 4 games over .500 all year. Just saying.
I want to take this opportunity to congratulate the 11 teams that reached the playoffs. Well done. And I would like to once again tempt fate and NOT congratulate the Broncos. Make me eat my words, Tebow, I dare you.
But for the other 20 teams that will be joining us on our couches to watch the playoffs, let me offer some quick, end of season words of wisdom:
The Downright Awful Teams
Indianapolis Colts (2-14) - Andrew Luck is a "once in a generation" type of prospect, they say. Well, Peyton Manning may be a "once in a NFL HISTORY" type of QB. Ball's in your court Indy.
St. Louis Rams (2-14) - The Rams were the sexy pick to take the supposedly weak NFC West, and what a load of crock that turned out to be. The Rams were a 13-12 win over Cleveland and that SUPERFLUKE game against New Orleans away from matching Detroit's 0-16 mark. Easily the worst team in football.
Minnesota Vikings (3-13) - What a mess. For all the positive things I'm hearing about Christian Ponder and Joe Webb, you would think they could post more than 3 wins, wouldn't you? I suppose AP's injury may have cost them a few close games, but I just don't see where this team is going. Especially in a NFC North division that is going to be tough for the next decade.
Cleveland Browns (4-12) - Poor Colt McCoy. Not only is he a bad quarterback, but he leads the worst offense ever assembled by a professional football team. The Browns scored 20 points in a game just twice all season. You may argue that the Colts or Vikings or Rams have a worse offense but at least I can name their best players - Manning/Wayne, Peterson/Harvin, Jackson/Lloyd. Who are Cleveland's best players? I certainly hope they're not Greg Little and Peyton Hillis.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12) - Maybe we overreacted to 2010 Josh Freeman a little bit. Did you know the Buccs started 4-2 this year? Did you know they beat the Falcons AND Saints in the first 6 weeks? Did you know they then proceeded to lose 10 straight games by a combined 176 points, giving up 349? 17 NFL teams gave up less than 349 points all year (The Steelers gave up a full 122 points less in 16 games than the Buccs did weeks 7-17)
The "How Did They Get to 5 Wins?" Teams
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11) - MJD. MJD is how they got to 5 wins. Blaine Gabbert is terrible. And its not just "unprepared rookie" terrible. Its "I really shouldn't be playing in the NFL because I have no poise or promise and look like I'm scared half the time and asleep the other half" terrible. Whoever decided that Gabbert was so much better than David Garrard that it warranted his removal from the team should be exiled and sent to Siberia or something.
Washington Redskins (5-11) - Now here's an interesting one. The 2011 Washington Redskins should have been contenders. The NFC East has probably never been this weak, and yet the Redskins were done in October. Washington started with a HUGE win over the Giants and won 3 of their first 4. Then, Rex Grossman had ONE bad game against Philly (which the Redskins only lost by 7) and Shanahan benched him for a month. In his absence, the pride of Brigham Young John Beck went 0-3 with 2 TDs and 4 INTs, and was outscored 31-75. Grossman regained his starting job and scored impressive victories in Seattle and New York (for the second time), and played New England within one score, but it was too late. The damage was done. John Beck is utterly worthless and someone is gonna have to remind me why Mike Shanahan is a good coach.
The "Tale of Two Seasons" Teams
Buffalo Bills (6-10) - Started 4-1. Beat New England 34-31 in week 3. Beat the aforementioned John Beck in week 7 to improve to 5-2. Agreed to pay Ryan Fitzpatrick $59 million over 6 years. Everyone stopped playing. Nobody circles the wagons...
Kansas City Chiefs (7-9) - Started 0-3, giving up a whopping 109 points in those games. Then went 4-0, capitalizing on close games that went their way and Philip Rivers fumbling the ball on a kneel down. Then back to an 0-4 stretch, failing to score more than 10 points in any of those games. Finished with a solid 3-2 run, including an OT loss to Oakland they easily could have won. In the end, I am completely unsurprised by the 2011 Kansas City Chiefs. Maybe Kyle Orton is the answer. Stay tuned.
The "Moving in the Right Direction" Teams
Carolina Panthers (6-10) - Please, oh please just give Cam a defense to work with. Cam Newton WILL win a superbowl sometime before 2020. I went there.
Miami Dolphins (6-10) - So it was Mat Moore and Reggie Bush all along huh? I don't know what happened half way through the season, maybe it was the embarrassing Denver loss where they gave up 15 points in 2 minutes and lost in OT, but a flip was switched in Miami. They were absolutely crushing people. Weeks 9-13: 31-3, 20-9, 35-8, 19-20 (tough loss to Dallas), 34-14. Probably brighter days on the horizon in Miami if Mat Moore can sustain this level of play.
The Pleasantly Surprising Teams
Seattle Seahawks (7-9) - Is Tarvaris Jackson a secretly good quarterback???
Arizona Cardinals (8-8) - Is John Skelton a secretly good quarterback???
Tennessee Titans (9-7) - Is Matt Hasselbeck a secr.... No just kidding.
The "They Are Who We Thought They Were" Teams
Chicago Bears (8-8)
Oakland Raiders (8-8)
Eerily similar seasons for these teams. Strong starts - 7-3 for Chicago, 7-4 for Oakland. Loss of good starting QBs to injury - Campbell relieved by Palmer, Cutler relieved by Hanie. Loss of dominant starting RBs to injury - McFadden relieved by Bush, Forte relieved Barber/Bell. Awful Finishes - 1-5 and 1-4 respectively. 8-8 is exactly where I had these teams coming into the year, so Denny Green's immortal line holds true. However, do I think these seasons would have been different without all the injuries? Yes, I do 100%. I think they both waltz into the playoffs, Oakland as the AFC West champ and Chicago as the first NFC wild card. Unfortunately, injuries are just part of the game.
The Terribly Disappointing Teams
San Diego Chargers (8-8) - Vowed to not talk about them until the 2012 NFL Draft.
Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) - I think the Eagles had the most to lose from the lockout that threatened the season and cut training camp way short. During their 4-8 start they looked sloppy, confused, and generally discombobulated. There was no chemistry and clearly there was distension in the ranks with that whole DeSean Jackson ordeal. But I wouldn't put the Eagles outside of my top 8 teams if I had to rank them right now, and I have a sneaking suspicion they are gonna find a way to put together a huge run at the championship next year.
Dallas Cowboys (8-8) - The Cowboys are, without a doubt, the most erratic team in the NFL. They drop points like they are going out of style in the first 3 quarters and then look like a peewee team trying to hold 21 point leads in the fourth. They win a game 34-7, then come back the next week and lose a game 34-7. They rip off a 4 game win streak in November, then drop 4 of 5 in December. Justly, they ended up right at 8-8. I had much higher aspirations for the Cowboys this year and I think their disappointing season begs the question: When do they start to consider a QB not named Tony Romo?
The "Finally the World Makes Sense" Teams
New York Jets (8-8) - And finally Mark Sanchez is exposed for the awful, awful quarterback that he is. I could not be more thrilled that the Jets missed the playoffs and that Rex Ryan's tremendous behind is firmly indented in an increasingly hot seat in New York. Also, I would like to point out that Antonio Cromartie is a terrible CB and he completely neutralizes Revis by giving opposing QBs somewhere to throw.
And thus I place the final seal on the NFL regular season. For those of you who root for teams moving onto the playoffs, cheer hard and root fiercely. For those of you who don't, I feel your pain.
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