Happy Halloween everyone!
We are coming up on a pivotal week of football. Must win games for the Chargers, Ravens, and Bears. Each team sits at 3-3, each has shown signs of promise, as well as inconsistency. If these teams have hopes of contention, they need to get it going this week. 8-8 is not going to win a division this year (not even the NFC West). Any team who lingers under .500 at this point in the season can pretty much be written off. So a loss this week for any of those 3 teams, could spell disaster.
That being said, here are my selections for week 8:
BALTIMORE (-3.5) over Denver
Must win #1. This is where the miraculous Broncos run ends. The Ravens are too good of a team to lose 4 straight games, especially at home. Ray Rice has been one of the pleasant surprises of the season, and the Ravens offense might be able to figure out the Broncos defense, which has given opposing offenses fits so far. The Ravens cannot (and will not) slide to 3-4.
CHICAGO (-13.5) over Cleveland
Must win #2. There were some people who were very high on the Bears before the season. I was not one of them, but still, they have been somewhat of a disappointment. They should come out in this game and crush the Browns. Good news for Matt Forte fantasy owners, I think this is the game where he finally breaks out, goes for at least 2 TDs. He, as well as the offensive line, has done very little thus far, maybe the Browns defense is just what they need.
Houston (-3.5) over BUFFALO
What can I say, I like the Texans. Get used to it. I don't think the Bills are any good. Who did they beat? The winless Buccaneers, the hapless Panthers, and Mark Sanchez (a rookie qb) in bad weather. I don't believe, sorry Buffalo. Texans win easily.
GREEN BAY (-3) over Minnesota
Gooooood game. The Vikings were brought back down to Earth last week, when Brett Favre completely blew the game in Pittsburgh. On the other hand, the Packers have come on strong following a lackluster first few games. The Vikings were unable to get the running game going last time these 2 played, and that could be a major problem in cold weather at Lambeau field (what with Favre's 59-year old arm). The Vikings D is number 1 in number of sacks, but when they don't get that pressure, they are vulnerable to the big play. Think Rodgers to Jennings for 65 yards.
INDIANAPOLIS (-12.5) over San Francisco
Why would you pick against Peyton Manning? At this point, it's just foolish.
Miami (+3) over NEW YORK JETS
I didn't think I would be saying this anytime this season, but I like the Dolphins offense. The Wildcat seems to be working nicely (although I doubt whether the formation is the real reason for success, I would contribute it more to talented RBs and good blocking) and Chad Henne has been just fine in the starting role. He is not going to continually make big plays for you, but that offense isn't asking him to. I only worry about the Dolphins falling behind early, they are not a team that plays well from behind. But they did already beat the Jets this year and Mark Sanchez has not impressed me much since the Patriots game (the Raiders defense doesn't count). Ballsy Pick of the Week - Dolphins win 31-24.
DETROIT (-4) over St. Louis
Uggh, the worst team last year vs. the worst team this year. Gee thanks NFL! Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson are both questionable and the Lions need at least one of them to play. They are not going to beat many teams with Daunte "remember me?" Culpepper and Dennis "heard of me?" Northcutt. Still, I'm going to take the Lions because I think the Rams have already decided to go after Sam Bradford.
Seattle (+9.5) over DALLAS
2 reasons for this pick. First, I don't think Miles Austin can carry the entire Cowboys team for 3 straight games. And second, I am forced to start Hasselbeck because Tom Brady has a stupid bye, and I really need him to do well. I think the Seahawks can keep it within 10.
SAN DIEGO (-16.5) over Oakland
Must win #3. Largest spread I have seen so far this season. I can see this game going one of 2 ways. 1) We see a repeat of week 1, where it's a one possession game in the 4th quarter, but the Chargers ultimately pull out the win because they are the better team and we cannot afford a home loss to Oakland. Or 2) the Chargers win 52-6. I think it's about 50/50 one way or the other. And based on what I saw from the Raiders last week, I'm gonna say we win by 46.
Jacksonville (+3) over TENNESSEE
The 2 RBs in this game are the only reasons to watch. The Titans are hoping that Vince Young will provide a spark to the offense that was so explosive last season (especially in the running game). The Jaguars are most likely looking to give MJD the ball 70 times and just letting him have at the Titans depleted defense. Not a high-scoring affair in this one. I'll take the points.
ARIZONA (-10) over Carolina
Two words: Jake and Delhomme... I'm adding two more: is and awful. You do the math.
New York Giants (Pick) over PHILADELPHIA
So I'm supposed to believe everything is fine in Philadelphia because they beat the Redskins by 10? Not buying it. I need to see a signature win before I forgive them for losing to Oakland. Perhaps a win over the Giants? Too bad it's not going to happen. The Giants have lost to 2 very good offenses the past 2 weeks, and I don't see the Eagles as a great offense. You take away DeSean Jackson and you should be fine.
Atlanta (+10) over NEW ORLEANS
Going with the Falcons again. This pick is very simple. I think the game is going to be closer than 10 points. That's it. I'm thinking 38-31 Saints.
Fantasy time. I am being hit hard by injuries at the wide receiver position so these rosters are subject to change if certain players are pulled late.
WeLikeSportz - Matt Hasselbeck, Steven Jackson, Steve Slaton, Calvin Johnson, Vincent Jackson, Hakeem Nicks, Todd Heap, David Akers, Vikings D
League of Imported Spirits - Peyton Manning, Michael Turner, Pierre Thomas, Andre Johnson, Hakeem Nicks, Johnny Knox, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Owen Daniels, Kris Brown, Ravens D
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Week 7 Mistakes
8-4-1.
Wooo! And the crowd goes wild!!! Best week of football yet. The Chargers had a field day against a horrible KC team. I demolished everyone in my fantasy league (WeLikeSportz), and I had good luck with my line picks. The only way it could have been better is if the Broncos had lost, but alas, they were on their bye. Well at least they didn't win again.
I mentioned in my last post (when I noticed it myself) that I was picking a lot of away teams this week. Well, that paid off for me. Do you know how many home teams won this week? 4. The other 9 home teams lost by a combined 200 points (300-100... Isn't it weird that all those numbers are so nice and even? Kinda freaky...) It appears that home field advantage means much less than it used to. The only real advantage I see is the possibility of bad weather. But even then, both teams have to play in the same weather...
Anyways, here we go, look at this LONG list of games I picked correctly:
San Diego (-4.5) over KANSAS CITY 37-7
Indianapolis (-13.5) over ST. LOUIS 42-6
Green Bay (-8.5) over CLEVELAND 31-3
New England (-13.5) over TAMPA BAY 35-7
Buffalo (+7) over CAROLINA 20-9 (Ballsy Pick of the Week SUCCESSFUL)
New York Jets (-6.5) over OAKLAND 38-0
New Orleans (-7) over MIAMI 46-34
Philadelphia (-7) over WASHINGTON 27-17
Look at all those away teams. I went 8-3 with my away picks this week. Unfortunately, I coupled that with a 0-1-1 record in home team picks. I could have put up an even better record this week.
Chicago (+1.5) over CINCINNATI
Score: CIN 45, CHI 10
Ummm...... whoops?
Minnesota (+5) over PITTSBURGH
Score: PIT 27, MIN 17
Gahh!! Stupid Brett Favre! I knew he was gonna start turning the ball over. A sack/fumble that was returned for a TD, and a crushing pick 6 late in the 4th quarter that sealed it for the Steelers. I was so sure I had this one. The Vikings were driving down the field with less than 90 seconds to go, down by just 3. Even if they don't score the winning TD, they cover the +5 line. Even if he throws a pick and the guy gets tackled, the Steelers would just take a knee or 2 and I would cover. But NO!!! Brett Favre throws a heater at Chester Taylor's left shoulder, it bounces off and gets picked, and then Favre completely whiffs on an opportunity to tackle the defender. Atrocious. Unbelievable. He is out to get me, I know it.
Atlanta (+4) over DALLAS
Score: DAL 37, ATL 21
This Tony Romo to Miles Austin thing is really working for the Cowboys. 2 more TDs, 171 more yards. Hey if it ain't broke, don't fix it. I may have underestimated the Cowboys D. It finally seems like that team is getting on track. They got some help from the Giants (who just look awful all of a sudden) and they are back in the NFC East race. Speaking of the Giants...
NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) over Arizona
Score: ARI 24, NYG 17
I may have also underestimated the Cardinals D. They looked like the 2008 playoff Cardinals defense in this one. Eli just never seemed to get it going, and the 1 TD he did throw, was a deflected pass that soared straight to an uncovered Hakeem Nicks (shades of the immaculate deflection in week 1). If you take away that lucky break, he was 18/37 for 181 yards and 3 INTs. That is quite Jamarcus Russell-esque.
HOUSTON (-3) over San Francisco
Score: HOU 24, SF 21 (PUSH)
The Texans should have covered. They were up 21-0 at half time, Slaton was scoring all over the place, and they just kind of disappeared in the second half. I should have had this one. I should have been 9-4 this week. Unfair.
Fantasy Update:
League: WeLikeSportz
Defeated Team Weed 152.4-55.38
Tom Brady 25.9
Steve Slaton 22.17
Steven Jackson 15.33
Vincent Jackson 21.47
Mario Manningham 7.13
Cedric Benson 26.9
Chris Cooley 3.4 (broken ankle in first quarter, out for the year)
David Akers 11.1 (that .1 came from a tackle on a kickoff... pretty badass right?)
Green Bay D 19
Complete and utter annihilation. Highest score of the week. I chose the wrong Giants receiver in Manningham over Nicks, but I can live with that. And it hurts that Cooley is out for the year, but I have Todd Heap so I should be alright there. Things are definitely looking up.
Current Record: 3-4 (5th place)
League: League of Imported Spirits
Lost by like 14 to some other team
Peyton Manning 27.3
Michael Turner 11
Pierre Thomas 4.4
Andre Johnson 6.2
Anquan Boldin 7.5
Steve Breaston 2.35
Hines Ward 0.3
Owen Daniels 18.3
Kris Brown 8
New York Jets D 21
This league is just making me sad. My team looks so good on paper but they have all just been so... blah. Manning and Andre Johnson have been the only bright spots, and Johnson took a big hit on Sunday and came up coughing blood. Never a good sign.
Current Record 2-5 (7th place)
Wooo! And the crowd goes wild!!! Best week of football yet. The Chargers had a field day against a horrible KC team. I demolished everyone in my fantasy league (WeLikeSportz), and I had good luck with my line picks. The only way it could have been better is if the Broncos had lost, but alas, they were on their bye. Well at least they didn't win again.
I mentioned in my last post (when I noticed it myself) that I was picking a lot of away teams this week. Well, that paid off for me. Do you know how many home teams won this week? 4. The other 9 home teams lost by a combined 200 points (300-100... Isn't it weird that all those numbers are so nice and even? Kinda freaky...) It appears that home field advantage means much less than it used to. The only real advantage I see is the possibility of bad weather. But even then, both teams have to play in the same weather...
Anyways, here we go, look at this LONG list of games I picked correctly:
San Diego (-4.5) over KANSAS CITY 37-7
Indianapolis (-13.5) over ST. LOUIS 42-6
Green Bay (-8.5) over CLEVELAND 31-3
New England (-13.5) over TAMPA BAY 35-7
Buffalo (+7) over CAROLINA 20-9 (Ballsy Pick of the Week SUCCESSFUL)
New York Jets (-6.5) over OAKLAND 38-0
New Orleans (-7) over MIAMI 46-34
Philadelphia (-7) over WASHINGTON 27-17
Look at all those away teams. I went 8-3 with my away picks this week. Unfortunately, I coupled that with a 0-1-1 record in home team picks. I could have put up an even better record this week.
Chicago (+1.5) over CINCINNATI
Score: CIN 45, CHI 10
Ummm...... whoops?
Minnesota (+5) over PITTSBURGH
Score: PIT 27, MIN 17
Gahh!! Stupid Brett Favre! I knew he was gonna start turning the ball over. A sack/fumble that was returned for a TD, and a crushing pick 6 late in the 4th quarter that sealed it for the Steelers. I was so sure I had this one. The Vikings were driving down the field with less than 90 seconds to go, down by just 3. Even if they don't score the winning TD, they cover the +5 line. Even if he throws a pick and the guy gets tackled, the Steelers would just take a knee or 2 and I would cover. But NO!!! Brett Favre throws a heater at Chester Taylor's left shoulder, it bounces off and gets picked, and then Favre completely whiffs on an opportunity to tackle the defender. Atrocious. Unbelievable. He is out to get me, I know it.
Atlanta (+4) over DALLAS
Score: DAL 37, ATL 21
This Tony Romo to Miles Austin thing is really working for the Cowboys. 2 more TDs, 171 more yards. Hey if it ain't broke, don't fix it. I may have underestimated the Cowboys D. It finally seems like that team is getting on track. They got some help from the Giants (who just look awful all of a sudden) and they are back in the NFC East race. Speaking of the Giants...
NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) over Arizona
Score: ARI 24, NYG 17
I may have also underestimated the Cardinals D. They looked like the 2008 playoff Cardinals defense in this one. Eli just never seemed to get it going, and the 1 TD he did throw, was a deflected pass that soared straight to an uncovered Hakeem Nicks (shades of the immaculate deflection in week 1). If you take away that lucky break, he was 18/37 for 181 yards and 3 INTs. That is quite Jamarcus Russell-esque.
HOUSTON (-3) over San Francisco
Score: HOU 24, SF 21 (PUSH)
The Texans should have covered. They were up 21-0 at half time, Slaton was scoring all over the place, and they just kind of disappeared in the second half. I should have had this one. I should have been 9-4 this week. Unfair.
Overall Record: 48-38-1
Ballsy Pick of the Week Record: 5-1
Fantasy Update:
League: WeLikeSportz
Defeated Team Weed 152.4-55.38
Tom Brady 25.9
Steve Slaton 22.17
Steven Jackson 15.33
Vincent Jackson 21.47
Mario Manningham 7.13
Cedric Benson 26.9
Chris Cooley 3.4 (broken ankle in first quarter, out for the year)
David Akers 11.1 (that .1 came from a tackle on a kickoff... pretty badass right?)
Green Bay D 19
Complete and utter annihilation. Highest score of the week. I chose the wrong Giants receiver in Manningham over Nicks, but I can live with that. And it hurts that Cooley is out for the year, but I have Todd Heap so I should be alright there. Things are definitely looking up.
Current Record: 3-4 (5th place)
League: League of Imported Spirits
Lost by like 14 to some other team
Peyton Manning 27.3
Michael Turner 11
Pierre Thomas 4.4
Andre Johnson 6.2
Anquan Boldin 7.5
Steve Breaston 2.35
Hines Ward 0.3
Owen Daniels 18.3
Kris Brown 8
New York Jets D 21
This league is just making me sad. My team looks so good on paper but they have all just been so... blah. Manning and Andre Johnson have been the only bright spots, and Johnson took a big hit on Sunday and came up coughing blood. Never a good sign.
Current Record 2-5 (7th place)
Friday, October 23, 2009
NFL Week 7
I am coming to you with a special Friday edition of my sports blog!! Why, you ask? Because I have the necessary time, energy, and mindset today. And I probably won't tomorrow. Now stop asking questions and listen up. I'm going to have a big week here, I can feel it.
San Diego (-4.5) over KANSAS CITY
We gotta have this one. We never play well @KC, they always seem to surprise us. That cannot happen this time. We need to prepare for a scrappy team that is going to keep it close. It is very possible that we might win, but not cover, but I refuse to pick the Chiefs. The thought of another loss is just too much right now.
Indianapolis (-13.5) over ST. LOUIS
If Peyton Manning doesn't score 50 points for me this week, I am going to be outraged. There is no reason he shouldn't throw at least 5 TDs against the Rams defense. I recommend starting any and all Colts offense players you have. This game should be decided by half time. And if I catch so much as a glimpse of Jim Sorgi, I am going to put my foot through the TV. The Patriots didn't slow down last week, why should the Colts?
Chicago (+1.5) over CINCINNATI
So I was listening to old Bill Simmons podcasts this week (when I say "old", I mean from like 2 months ago) and something I heard greatly surprised me. He was talking with some guy who works for the Sports Almanac online or something like that. Obviously, I wasn't paying attention to the details, so don't quote me on this. Anyways, they talked about how the Chargers, Colts, and Patriots were the big 3 in the AFC (2 out of 3 ain't bad). Yada yada, everyone knew that. But then they brought up the NFC. The guy said that not only were the Bears the number 1 projected team in the conference, they were the number 1 team in the whole league. Obviously they did not anticipate losing Urlacher for the entire season, which is a tremendous blow to that defense. However, I can see why the Bears are an appealing choice. A good hard-throwing QB (which they have not had in years), a top 5 ranked RB, and plenty of young talent at the WR position. I think they are better than people think.
Green Bay (-8.5) over CLEVELAND
I thought about this as a potential Ballsy pick of the Week candidate, but then I remembered that the Browns are awful. Despite the fact that the Packers have won convincingly against bad teams (STL, DET), won in a close a game against CHI, and lost only 2 close games to good opponents (CIN, MIN), they just don't seem to have that spark that everyone (including myself) anticipated. They came out hot after the bye week and destroyed the Lions sans Stafford and Johnson, and I think that will set them off on a little run here. Easy opponent in Cleveland to stoke the fire, they should head into a big home game against Minnesota week 8 firing on all cylinders.
Minnesota (+5) over PITTSBURGH
Best game of the week right here. I like the Vikings offense more than Pittsburgh's, but I think this might be the game where we see the turnover-prone side of Brett Favre emerge. I think the Steelers O-line is the difference in the game. If they dominate like they did 2 weeks ago against the Chargers, they can beat anyone. If Big Ben gets time (which you know he loooves) he can pick apart any defense. Mendenhall has stepped up to fill the void left by Slow Willie Parker, and it really looks like it's coming together. But... don't the Vikings look like the team of destiny right now? Who is going to beat them? They should have lost to San Francisco. You should not be able to score in that situation. They should have lost to Baltimore last week. The Ravens had every bit of momentum, the Vikings defense could do nothing against them, and they miss the game winning field goal as time expires. Oh Steven Hauschka, bless his heart, he must be the sickest man on the planet. But they didn't lose those games. They didn't lose any game. I think someone up there is a Brett Favre fan. That's all I'm gonna say.
New England (-14.5) over TAMPA BAY
I don't particularly like taking these gigantic 2 TD lines, but if the Patriots are going to win 59-0 against Tennessee in the snow, don't you think they could win 42-10 on a neutral field in London? This game should not be close, and I don't know if I would take Tampa Bay even if the spread was 30... I would have to think about it...
Buffalo (+7) over CAROLINA
Has anyone noticed that I have yet to pick to a home team? Anyways, you are probably expecting me to fill this space with justification for the Bills winning a game on the road. Well, I don't have any. The Panthers are a better team, but not by much, and the Bills did pull the upset last week. Look for T.O. to reemerge this week. Ballsy Pick - BUF 20, CAR 16.
HOUSTON (-3) over San Francisco
Ah, there's the home team. Thank goodness. I continue to be enthralled by the talent of the Houston Texans. I think they could easily be 5-1 at this point, if only they had some consistency in their play. The offense is high-powered and the defense has loads of potential, especially with Super Mario Williams and the pass rush. I think San Francisco is good, but got a little big-headed after beating up on their division. They were embarrassed by Atlanta and they had a lot to think about over the bye week.
New York Jets (-6.5) over OAKLAND
As long as Sanchez keeps the ball away from Nnamdi Asomugha, I see no reason we should see a repeat loss for the Jets or a repeat win for the Raiders. The Jets might be in trouble if they throw 6 interceptions again, but I feel like that is unlikely. Also, look for this Jets defense to return to early season form. They should have a field day against Jamarcus "Why am I still starting?" Russell.
New Orleans (-7) over MIAMI
I have heard murmurs, nothing substantial yet, but some people think this might be the week the Saints slip up. I completely disagree. They have given me no reason to think they would do such a thing. Had I picked a week for them to falter, it would have been last week. They didn't slow down at all. What is it about the Dolphins defense that makes people think they can stop Drew Brees? If someone has an answer to that, please enlighten me. I think the Dolphins offense is better than people realize, but that's just not enough against the Saints. Also, the argument that the Saints might lose because they are being taken out of the dome is ridiculous. It's Miami. It's not Foxborough or Pittsburgh, ok? It's Miami.
Atlanta (+4) over DALLAS
If you haven't noticed by now, I usually pick the Chargers (because they are my team), the Texans (because they make up most of my fantasy rosters), and the Falcons (just beacuse I think they have the potential to be very good). The Falcons have sort of flown under the radar this year. They have quietly gotten off to a 4-1 start (their only loss @ the Patriots) and just like the Texans, I can't stay away from them. I think they have a decent chance to win every week. I really like that team.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) over Arizona
Last week, the Giants looked dreadful and the Cardinals looked unstoppable, on both sides of the ball. I think that gets switched this week. The Giants are at home, and they are pissed that the Saints embarrassed them in the biggest game of their season so far. Eli comes out and shreds the Cardinals D (throwing to Hakeem Nicks, not Mario Manningham). And the defense has a point to prove. They want us to know that the Saints got the best of the them but it's not going to happen again. That's not who they are. Big win for the Giants, by more than 14 points.
Philadelphia (-7) over WASHINGTON
Same principle applies for Philly here. Even though they only lost by 4, they way they played last week was embarrassing. It would have been embarrassing even if they had won it in the end. They just played so poorly, so uncaringly, that they HAVE to come out in this game and crush the Redskins. They are in a tough division and they need to show us that they can win the games they are supposed to win, along with the tough ones.
San Diego (-4.5) over KANSAS CITY
We gotta have this one. We never play well @KC, they always seem to surprise us. That cannot happen this time. We need to prepare for a scrappy team that is going to keep it close. It is very possible that we might win, but not cover, but I refuse to pick the Chiefs. The thought of another loss is just too much right now.
Indianapolis (-13.5) over ST. LOUIS
If Peyton Manning doesn't score 50 points for me this week, I am going to be outraged. There is no reason he shouldn't throw at least 5 TDs against the Rams defense. I recommend starting any and all Colts offense players you have. This game should be decided by half time. And if I catch so much as a glimpse of Jim Sorgi, I am going to put my foot through the TV. The Patriots didn't slow down last week, why should the Colts?
Chicago (+1.5) over CINCINNATI
So I was listening to old Bill Simmons podcasts this week (when I say "old", I mean from like 2 months ago) and something I heard greatly surprised me. He was talking with some guy who works for the Sports Almanac online or something like that. Obviously, I wasn't paying attention to the details, so don't quote me on this. Anyways, they talked about how the Chargers, Colts, and Patriots were the big 3 in the AFC (2 out of 3 ain't bad). Yada yada, everyone knew that. But then they brought up the NFC. The guy said that not only were the Bears the number 1 projected team in the conference, they were the number 1 team in the whole league. Obviously they did not anticipate losing Urlacher for the entire season, which is a tremendous blow to that defense. However, I can see why the Bears are an appealing choice. A good hard-throwing QB (which they have not had in years), a top 5 ranked RB, and plenty of young talent at the WR position. I think they are better than people think.
Green Bay (-8.5) over CLEVELAND
I thought about this as a potential Ballsy pick of the Week candidate, but then I remembered that the Browns are awful. Despite the fact that the Packers have won convincingly against bad teams (STL, DET), won in a close a game against CHI, and lost only 2 close games to good opponents (CIN, MIN), they just don't seem to have that spark that everyone (including myself) anticipated. They came out hot after the bye week and destroyed the Lions sans Stafford and Johnson, and I think that will set them off on a little run here. Easy opponent in Cleveland to stoke the fire, they should head into a big home game against Minnesota week 8 firing on all cylinders.
Minnesota (+5) over PITTSBURGH
Best game of the week right here. I like the Vikings offense more than Pittsburgh's, but I think this might be the game where we see the turnover-prone side of Brett Favre emerge. I think the Steelers O-line is the difference in the game. If they dominate like they did 2 weeks ago against the Chargers, they can beat anyone. If Big Ben gets time (which you know he loooves) he can pick apart any defense. Mendenhall has stepped up to fill the void left by Slow Willie Parker, and it really looks like it's coming together. But... don't the Vikings look like the team of destiny right now? Who is going to beat them? They should have lost to San Francisco. You should not be able to score in that situation. They should have lost to Baltimore last week. The Ravens had every bit of momentum, the Vikings defense could do nothing against them, and they miss the game winning field goal as time expires. Oh Steven Hauschka, bless his heart, he must be the sickest man on the planet. But they didn't lose those games. They didn't lose any game. I think someone up there is a Brett Favre fan. That's all I'm gonna say.
New England (-14.5) over TAMPA BAY
I don't particularly like taking these gigantic 2 TD lines, but if the Patriots are going to win 59-0 against Tennessee in the snow, don't you think they could win 42-10 on a neutral field in London? This game should not be close, and I don't know if I would take Tampa Bay even if the spread was 30... I would have to think about it...
Buffalo (+7) over CAROLINA
Has anyone noticed that I have yet to pick to a home team? Anyways, you are probably expecting me to fill this space with justification for the Bills winning a game on the road. Well, I don't have any. The Panthers are a better team, but not by much, and the Bills did pull the upset last week. Look for T.O. to reemerge this week. Ballsy Pick - BUF 20, CAR 16.
HOUSTON (-3) over San Francisco
Ah, there's the home team. Thank goodness. I continue to be enthralled by the talent of the Houston Texans. I think they could easily be 5-1 at this point, if only they had some consistency in their play. The offense is high-powered and the defense has loads of potential, especially with Super Mario Williams and the pass rush. I think San Francisco is good, but got a little big-headed after beating up on their division. They were embarrassed by Atlanta and they had a lot to think about over the bye week.
New York Jets (-6.5) over OAKLAND
As long as Sanchez keeps the ball away from Nnamdi Asomugha, I see no reason we should see a repeat loss for the Jets or a repeat win for the Raiders. The Jets might be in trouble if they throw 6 interceptions again, but I feel like that is unlikely. Also, look for this Jets defense to return to early season form. They should have a field day against Jamarcus "Why am I still starting?" Russell.
New Orleans (-7) over MIAMI
I have heard murmurs, nothing substantial yet, but some people think this might be the week the Saints slip up. I completely disagree. They have given me no reason to think they would do such a thing. Had I picked a week for them to falter, it would have been last week. They didn't slow down at all. What is it about the Dolphins defense that makes people think they can stop Drew Brees? If someone has an answer to that, please enlighten me. I think the Dolphins offense is better than people realize, but that's just not enough against the Saints. Also, the argument that the Saints might lose because they are being taken out of the dome is ridiculous. It's Miami. It's not Foxborough or Pittsburgh, ok? It's Miami.
Atlanta (+4) over DALLAS
If you haven't noticed by now, I usually pick the Chargers (because they are my team), the Texans (because they make up most of my fantasy rosters), and the Falcons (just beacuse I think they have the potential to be very good). The Falcons have sort of flown under the radar this year. They have quietly gotten off to a 4-1 start (their only loss @ the Patriots) and just like the Texans, I can't stay away from them. I think they have a decent chance to win every week. I really like that team.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) over Arizona
Last week, the Giants looked dreadful and the Cardinals looked unstoppable, on both sides of the ball. I think that gets switched this week. The Giants are at home, and they are pissed that the Saints embarrassed them in the biggest game of their season so far. Eli comes out and shreds the Cardinals D (throwing to Hakeem Nicks, not Mario Manningham). And the defense has a point to prove. They want us to know that the Saints got the best of the them but it's not going to happen again. That's not who they are. Big win for the Giants, by more than 14 points.
Philadelphia (-7) over WASHINGTON
Same principle applies for Philly here. Even though they only lost by 4, they way they played last week was embarrassing. It would have been embarrassing even if they had won it in the end. They just played so poorly, so uncaringly, that they HAVE to come out in this game and crush the Redskins. They are in a tough division and they need to show us that they can win the games they are supposed to win, along with the tough ones.
Before I wrap up this post, I thought I would start listing my starting fantasy rosters here, just so you can get a taste of how much my teams have been underperforming. On paper, my teams are AWESOME. And yet I am 2-4 in both leagues. Go figure
WeLikeSportz - QB Tom Brady, RB1 Steven Jackson, RB2 Steve Slaton, WR1 Vincent Jackson, WR2 Hakeem Nicks, RB/WR Cedric Benson, TE Chris Cooley, K David Akers, DEF Green Bay.
League of Imported Spirits - QB Peyton Manning, RB1 Michael Turner, RB2 Pierre Thomas, WR1 Andre Johnson, WR2 Anquan Boldin, RB/WR1 Hines Ward, RB/WR2 Steve Breaston, TE Owen Daniels, K Kris Brown, DEF New York Jets.
I need to win both match ups. This is a huge week. There is one team in each league who is 6-0 and I need to start making my comebacks now.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Week 6 Mistakes
7-7.
I know I'm a little tardy to the party this week when it comes to posting, but I had somewhat of a football hangover the past 2 days. It was a rough week all over.
First, I had to get up at 5:45 to catch a flight back from San Fran. Which lead directly to me falling asleep during the Cardinals-Seahawks games... although it might have been the game itself... Second, the Chargers lost a very important game and I am now forced to accept that the Broncos are most likely going to win the division. Third, I lost both of my fantasy match ups (one because I once again played the person with the highest score in the league, and one because I am a HUGE idiot).
You may recall that I briefly mentioned that I would be starting Hasselbeck over Brady in my last blog post. I would love to tell you that I changed my mind at the last second and went with Brady, but that would be a lie. Here was my thought process in choosing Hasselbeck:
1) I lost in week 5 because I DIDN'T start Hasselbeck. He had a huge 4 TD week and Brady just looked completely out of sync with everyone. He was throwing balls behind people, over their heads, missing wide open guys.
2) Although Brady was playing a horrible Tennessee pass D, Hasselbeck's opponent was even worse. I'm sure it has changed now, but before this week, Arizona had the 32nd ranked pass defense.
3) Brady had scores of 9, 16, 20, and 23 points in his last 4 games. Hasselbeck had only played 3 games total and had 2 scores (25, 30) that were higher than all of Brady's.
Even after I had decided on Hasselbeck early in the week, I almost switched to Brady multiple times before Sunday. The last straw was when I woke up on Sunday morning and found out that a freak snowstorm had hit New England. It was freezing cold and snowing, not exactly ideal passing conditions.
Also, I was not aware at the time that Tennessee would be without both starting cornerbacks. As I hinted at earlier, I was in Berkeley Thursday through Sunday and I was not sitting in the hotel room watching ESPN or checking injury updates on my laptop all weekend.
But enough of my whining. I made a mistake, it won't happen again.
Here are the games I picked correctly:
ATLANTA (-3.5) over Chicago 21-14
Houston (+5) over CINCINNATI 28-17
Kansas City (+6.5) over WASHINGTON 14-6
St. Louis (+9.5) over JACKSONVILLE 20-23 (Ballsy Pick of the Week SUCCESSFUL)
Carolina (-3) over TAMPA BAY 28-21
GREEN BAY (-14) over Detroit 26-0
NEW ENGLAND (-9.5) over Tennessee 59-0
Here are the games I didn't:
MINNESOTA (-3) over Baltimore
Score: MIN 33, BAL 31
What happened to the Vikings in the 4th quarter? They went up 30-17 with 10 minutes left and their defense completely imploded. It was like watching a visual time line of Lindsay Lohan's life. I can't believe they didn't cover a field goal spread up 14 in the 4th. They almost lost the game too! If Steven Hauschka wasn't such a failure at life...
New York Giants (+3) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Score: NO 48, NYG 27
The Saints have a good offense. Real good. Scary good. Apparently unstoppable good. They did whatever they wanted against the Giants secondary. They ripped through that defense like Andy Reid rips through Sour Cream and Onion potato chips. There was no resistance. I think the Colts and Saints are interchangeable at the 1 and 2 spots right now. That match up would be REALLY good.
SEATTLE (-3) over Arizona
Score: ARI 27, SEA 3
I don't want to talk about Matt Hasselbeck right now. It might make my head explode.
SAN DIEGO (-3.5) over Denver
Score: DEN 34, SD 23
I don't want to talk about the Chargers right now. It might make my head explode.
PITTSBURGH (-14) over Cleveland
Score: PIT 27, CLE 14
I did not give Derek Anderson near enough credit. I didn't think he would have more than 3 completions this week. He had 9. You really showed me, Derek. This game was never in any doubt. The Steelers scored 17 points in the 2nd quarter and just coasted through the second half. It would have been nice if they could have added another field goal, or even a safety, but no.
Philadelphia (-14) over OAKLAND
Score: OAK 13, PHI 9
FLUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUKE!!!
NEW YORK JETS (-9.5) over Buffalo
Score: BUF16, NYJ 13
This game was a fluke too, but not as much as the Raiders victory was. I told the Jets it was silly to put all their eggs in the Mark Sanchez basket. He threw 5 picks in the game and is, for all intents and purposes, the reason they lost the game. On the other side, we saw a quarterback play for the Bills who wasn't Trent Edwards!!! He wasn't much better, but that's not the point. I watched the overtime portion of this game, and I had all kinds of jokes ready to text out if the Bills had lost - "Only the Bills could manage to lose a game in which the opposing QB and place holder combined for 6 INTs." But no!! Thanks a lot Bills!
Overall Record: 40-34
Ballsy Pick of the Week Record: 4-1
I'm so angry about fantasy football that you guys aren't getting a formal update this week. Deal with it.
I lost both match ups. I am currently 2-4 in both leagues, and I will never sit Tom Brady... EVER ... AGAIN.
I know I'm a little tardy to the party this week when it comes to posting, but I had somewhat of a football hangover the past 2 days. It was a rough week all over.
First, I had to get up at 5:45 to catch a flight back from San Fran. Which lead directly to me falling asleep during the Cardinals-Seahawks games... although it might have been the game itself... Second, the Chargers lost a very important game and I am now forced to accept that the Broncos are most likely going to win the division. Third, I lost both of my fantasy match ups (one because I once again played the person with the highest score in the league, and one because I am a HUGE idiot).
You may recall that I briefly mentioned that I would be starting Hasselbeck over Brady in my last blog post. I would love to tell you that I changed my mind at the last second and went with Brady, but that would be a lie. Here was my thought process in choosing Hasselbeck:
1) I lost in week 5 because I DIDN'T start Hasselbeck. He had a huge 4 TD week and Brady just looked completely out of sync with everyone. He was throwing balls behind people, over their heads, missing wide open guys.
2) Although Brady was playing a horrible Tennessee pass D, Hasselbeck's opponent was even worse. I'm sure it has changed now, but before this week, Arizona had the 32nd ranked pass defense.
3) Brady had scores of 9, 16, 20, and 23 points in his last 4 games. Hasselbeck had only played 3 games total and had 2 scores (25, 30) that were higher than all of Brady's.
Even after I had decided on Hasselbeck early in the week, I almost switched to Brady multiple times before Sunday. The last straw was when I woke up on Sunday morning and found out that a freak snowstorm had hit New England. It was freezing cold and snowing, not exactly ideal passing conditions.
Also, I was not aware at the time that Tennessee would be without both starting cornerbacks. As I hinted at earlier, I was in Berkeley Thursday through Sunday and I was not sitting in the hotel room watching ESPN or checking injury updates on my laptop all weekend.
But enough of my whining. I made a mistake, it won't happen again.
Here are the games I picked correctly:
ATLANTA (-3.5) over Chicago 21-14
Houston (+5) over CINCINNATI 28-17
Kansas City (+6.5) over WASHINGTON 14-6
St. Louis (+9.5) over JACKSONVILLE 20-23 (Ballsy Pick of the Week SUCCESSFUL)
Carolina (-3) over TAMPA BAY 28-21
GREEN BAY (-14) over Detroit 26-0
NEW ENGLAND (-9.5) over Tennessee 59-0
Here are the games I didn't:
MINNESOTA (-3) over Baltimore
Score: MIN 33, BAL 31
What happened to the Vikings in the 4th quarter? They went up 30-17 with 10 minutes left and their defense completely imploded. It was like watching a visual time line of Lindsay Lohan's life. I can't believe they didn't cover a field goal spread up 14 in the 4th. They almost lost the game too! If Steven Hauschka wasn't such a failure at life...
New York Giants (+3) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Score: NO 48, NYG 27
The Saints have a good offense. Real good. Scary good. Apparently unstoppable good. They did whatever they wanted against the Giants secondary. They ripped through that defense like Andy Reid rips through Sour Cream and Onion potato chips. There was no resistance. I think the Colts and Saints are interchangeable at the 1 and 2 spots right now. That match up would be REALLY good.
SEATTLE (-3) over Arizona
Score: ARI 27, SEA 3
I don't want to talk about Matt Hasselbeck right now. It might make my head explode.
SAN DIEGO (-3.5) over Denver
Score: DEN 34, SD 23
I don't want to talk about the Chargers right now. It might make my head explode.
PITTSBURGH (-14) over Cleveland
Score: PIT 27, CLE 14
I did not give Derek Anderson near enough credit. I didn't think he would have more than 3 completions this week. He had 9. You really showed me, Derek. This game was never in any doubt. The Steelers scored 17 points in the 2nd quarter and just coasted through the second half. It would have been nice if they could have added another field goal, or even a safety, but no.
Philadelphia (-14) over OAKLAND
Score: OAK 13, PHI 9
FLUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUKE!!!
NEW YORK JETS (-9.5) over Buffalo
Score: BUF16, NYJ 13
This game was a fluke too, but not as much as the Raiders victory was. I told the Jets it was silly to put all their eggs in the Mark Sanchez basket. He threw 5 picks in the game and is, for all intents and purposes, the reason they lost the game. On the other side, we saw a quarterback play for the Bills who wasn't Trent Edwards!!! He wasn't much better, but that's not the point. I watched the overtime portion of this game, and I had all kinds of jokes ready to text out if the Bills had lost - "Only the Bills could manage to lose a game in which the opposing QB and place holder combined for 6 INTs." But no!! Thanks a lot Bills!
Overall Record: 40-34
Ballsy Pick of the Week Record: 4-1
I'm so angry about fantasy football that you guys aren't getting a formal update this week. Deal with it.
I lost both match ups. I am currently 2-4 in both leagues, and I will never sit Tom Brady... EVER ... AGAIN.
Saturday, October 17, 2009
NFL Week 6
So I'm going to have to make this post short and sweet. I apologize, but I just had an 11 hour orientation and I'm tired and a little cranky. So just hang with me here.
Really Good Games
MINNESOTA (-3) over Baltimore
The Vikings are flying high at 5-0, whereas the Ravens are coming off 2 pretty tough losses, one of which was at home against Cincy. 2 very good defenses, but I have seen more holes in the Ravens' D than usual. Jared Allen and that Minnesota D line could create problems for Flacco.
New York Giants (+3) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
I struggled with this game a lot. I changed my mind about 74 times over the past week. Both teams are undefeated. Both teams can throw the ball with the best of them. Both teams have defenses that cause turnovers. I finally landed on the Giants, but I can't tell you why... I really can't, I don't know myself.
ATLANTA (-3.5) over Chicago
This game just made it into the "Really good games" category simply because I really like the teams playing in it. Ever since the Tony Gonzalez trade, I have looked at the Falcons as a strong Superbowl contender. And the Bears are 3-1, the sole loss coming in a very good game against a worthy Green Bay opponent. The Bears are going to have to win games like this to keep up in the NFC North, but I don't think they have enough to beat Atlanta in a close one.
Games Worth Watching
Houston (+5) over CINCINNATI
I don't know why, but it seems like every week I am unable to shake the feeling that the Texans offense, which has thus far been more inconsistent than Oprah's dieting, will awaken from its slumber and do something. Also, the Bengals have won their last 3 games by a total of 9 points (3 each game). They are really digging this last minute heroics routine.
SEATTLE (-3) over Arizona
I can't believe I'm actually saying this, but this is a big game in the NFC West. I know its early, but if the Seahawks win, I think they make it clear that its a 2 horse race in that division. Also, I'm starting Hasselbeck over Brady this week, and I am going to be so pissed if last week was just a fluke.
SAN DIEGO (-3.5) over Denver
Umm... To be honest, I'm really not sure why the Chargers are favored this week. We are 2-2. We got crushed in our last game (I know it was only a 10 point game but the defense was abysmal and the offense was apparently using the Oakland Raiders playbook for the first 3 quarters). And we are playing a 5-0 team, fresh off an "Eff you, you can't doubt us anymore" win over New England. I can only hope that we fixed our defense over the bye week. I think that's the x factor in the game. Do we continue to play a "Here have 10-15 yards, we don't want them" zone? Or do we pin our ears back and go after Orton? I want to see him beat us. I don't think he can.
Games I Would Only Watch If the Previous 6 Were All on a Simultaneous Commercial Break
Kansas City (+6.5) over WASHINGTON
Whoever created this spread is out of their mind. Washington is horrible. People aren't giving the Chiefs enough credit. Cassel is a good QB. Bowe is a serviceable number 1 WR. And Larry Johnson has been running better of late. I think the Chiefs win this game. Plain and simple.
St. Louis (+9.5) over JACKSONVILLE
This game is only in this section because of the pick I am making. Don't get me wrong, this game is going to be awful. The Rams have the longest losing streak now (which means, by rule, they have replaced the Lions as the worst team in the NFL). And the Jags got absolutely steamrolled last week by a team that was considered by many to be "decent at best." I don't think we are gonna see much scoring here, which I why I'm taking the 9.5 points. But I'm not stopping there. Oh no. Ballsy Pick of the Week: Rams 17, Jaguars 16. Let's get off the snide, Rams!!!
Games I Wouldn't Watch Even if Megan Fox Begged Me To
(That is completely untrue, I would do anything she asked me to. But you get my point)
PITTSBURGH (-14) over Cleveland
How many passes will Derek Anderson complete this week? Over/Under 3? I'm gonna go under.
Carolina (-3) over TAMPA BAY
You know what's interesting about this game? Nothing.
GREEN BAY (-14) over Detroit
I like what the Lions are putting together on offense, but I don't think it's quite there yet. Packers need a win. They have greatly underachieved so far.
Philadelphia (-14) over OAKLAND
If ever a team is going to beat the NFL record for points in a game (72, set by Washington in 1966), it is right here.
NEW YORK JETS (-9.5) over Buffalo
The Bills just aren't any good at all. The Jets need a win. They should come in a little ticked off about losing a game they should have won last Monday.
NEW ENGLAND (-9.5) over Tennessee
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. I mean come on, if someone bet you $1 million that the Titans would start 0-6, you take that in a heart beat.
Really Good Games
MINNESOTA (-3) over Baltimore
The Vikings are flying high at 5-0, whereas the Ravens are coming off 2 pretty tough losses, one of which was at home against Cincy. 2 very good defenses, but I have seen more holes in the Ravens' D than usual. Jared Allen and that Minnesota D line could create problems for Flacco.
New York Giants (+3) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
I struggled with this game a lot. I changed my mind about 74 times over the past week. Both teams are undefeated. Both teams can throw the ball with the best of them. Both teams have defenses that cause turnovers. I finally landed on the Giants, but I can't tell you why... I really can't, I don't know myself.
ATLANTA (-3.5) over Chicago
This game just made it into the "Really good games" category simply because I really like the teams playing in it. Ever since the Tony Gonzalez trade, I have looked at the Falcons as a strong Superbowl contender. And the Bears are 3-1, the sole loss coming in a very good game against a worthy Green Bay opponent. The Bears are going to have to win games like this to keep up in the NFC North, but I don't think they have enough to beat Atlanta in a close one.
Games Worth Watching
Houston (+5) over CINCINNATI
I don't know why, but it seems like every week I am unable to shake the feeling that the Texans offense, which has thus far been more inconsistent than Oprah's dieting, will awaken from its slumber and do something. Also, the Bengals have won their last 3 games by a total of 9 points (3 each game). They are really digging this last minute heroics routine.
SEATTLE (-3) over Arizona
I can't believe I'm actually saying this, but this is a big game in the NFC West. I know its early, but if the Seahawks win, I think they make it clear that its a 2 horse race in that division. Also, I'm starting Hasselbeck over Brady this week, and I am going to be so pissed if last week was just a fluke.
SAN DIEGO (-3.5) over Denver
Umm... To be honest, I'm really not sure why the Chargers are favored this week. We are 2-2. We got crushed in our last game (I know it was only a 10 point game but the defense was abysmal and the offense was apparently using the Oakland Raiders playbook for the first 3 quarters). And we are playing a 5-0 team, fresh off an "Eff you, you can't doubt us anymore" win over New England. I can only hope that we fixed our defense over the bye week. I think that's the x factor in the game. Do we continue to play a "Here have 10-15 yards, we don't want them" zone? Or do we pin our ears back and go after Orton? I want to see him beat us. I don't think he can.
Games I Would Only Watch If the Previous 6 Were All on a Simultaneous Commercial Break
Kansas City (+6.5) over WASHINGTON
Whoever created this spread is out of their mind. Washington is horrible. People aren't giving the Chiefs enough credit. Cassel is a good QB. Bowe is a serviceable number 1 WR. And Larry Johnson has been running better of late. I think the Chiefs win this game. Plain and simple.
St. Louis (+9.5) over JACKSONVILLE
This game is only in this section because of the pick I am making. Don't get me wrong, this game is going to be awful. The Rams have the longest losing streak now (which means, by rule, they have replaced the Lions as the worst team in the NFL). And the Jags got absolutely steamrolled last week by a team that was considered by many to be "decent at best." I don't think we are gonna see much scoring here, which I why I'm taking the 9.5 points. But I'm not stopping there. Oh no. Ballsy Pick of the Week: Rams 17, Jaguars 16. Let's get off the snide, Rams!!!
Games I Wouldn't Watch Even if Megan Fox Begged Me To
(That is completely untrue, I would do anything she asked me to. But you get my point)
PITTSBURGH (-14) over Cleveland
How many passes will Derek Anderson complete this week? Over/Under 3? I'm gonna go under.
Carolina (-3) over TAMPA BAY
You know what's interesting about this game? Nothing.
GREEN BAY (-14) over Detroit
I like what the Lions are putting together on offense, but I don't think it's quite there yet. Packers need a win. They have greatly underachieved so far.
Philadelphia (-14) over OAKLAND
If ever a team is going to beat the NFL record for points in a game (72, set by Washington in 1966), it is right here.
NEW YORK JETS (-9.5) over Buffalo
The Bills just aren't any good at all. The Jets need a win. They should come in a little ticked off about losing a game they should have won last Monday.
NEW ENGLAND (-9.5) over Tennessee
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. I mean come on, if someone bet you $1 million that the Titans would start 0-6, you take that in a heart beat.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Week 5 Mistakes
6-8.
Crap.
First week under .500, and I am not pleased with myself. This should not have been a hard week to pick. Besides the question of whether or not Eli would play, I didn't see much that would sway any of my decisions one way or the other. After seeing the Giants-Raiders game, David Carr probably could have covered that spread. So that's my bad. But who thought the Bengals, Broncos, and Dolphins would upset? No one. And if you did, you are crazy. Period.
Anyways, here are the few games I got right
Minnesota (-10) over ST. LOUIS 38-10
KANSAS CITY (+8) over Dallas 20-26
Cleveland (+6) over BUFFALO 6-3 (Ballsy Pick of the Week SUCESSFUL)
(Quick Note) This game was absolutely dreadful. The Cleveland Browns quarterback (who played the whole game mind you) went 2/17 for 23 yards and 1 INT. The Bills, on the other hand, lost to a team who's quarterback went 2/17 for 23 yards and 1 INT. Honestly, they should be embarrassed. This game was so bad that it has been named: The Worst 2 Teams that Aren't from Oakland or St. Louis Bowl.
Atlanta (+2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO 45-10
SEATTLE (-1.5) over Jacksonville 41-0
Indianapolis (-4) over TENNESSEE 31-9
I was very happy with 4 of the these 6 results (the 3 upsets and the Seahawks destruction of the Jaguars). The other 2 were not exactly surprises. Anyways, if you had told me I would get those 4 games right, I would assume I got at least 11 or 12 games right... not 6.
Here's where I messed up.
CAROLINA (-3.5) over Washington
Score: CAR 20, WAS 17
I thought it was a 2.5 point spread... Life is unfair.
Tampa Bay (+15) over PHILADELPHIA
Score: PHI 33, TB 14
The Buccs kept it relatively close to the 15 point spread. I remember thinking if they just added a field goal in the 4th quarter, the score would be 31-17 and I would cover. Unfortunately, at that exact moment, the Eagles added a safety. Crap. But it is never a good sign when your quarterback is your leading rusher... with 40 yards. You won't win many games like that.
Oakland (+15) over NEW YORK GIANTS
Score: NYG 44, OAK 7
Yeah, yeah, it was a dumb pick. I'm an idiot. Let's move on.
BALTIMORE (-6) over Cincinnati
Score: CIN 17, BAL 14
Cover or not, the Ravens should have won this game. Their offense performed well below its ability, and the defense gave up stupid penalty after stupid penalty and left the door open for the Bengals. And they still had a 4 point lead with half a minute to go. The D makes one big play and they win, but Ray Lewis decides to take a completely unnecessary shot at Ochocinco (drawing a 15 yard penalty) and Palmer beat them when it counted. By the way, that winning touchdown throw was a thing of beauty. I really hope the announcer said "ZING!" when it happened. Amazing throw.
Pittsburgh (-10.5) over Detroit
Score: PIT 28, DET 20
The Lions just live to ruin me don't they? I choose them to cover a 10 point spread against Chicago, they lose by 24. I DON'T choose them to cover a 10.5 point spread against Pittsburgh, they lose by 8. Ridiculous. Pick a side Lions. Team that gets blown out or team that keeps it close but ultimately loses? It's a lose-lose for you but I would like to know.
New England (-3) over DENVER
Score: DEN 20, NE 17 (OT)
(Stunned Silence...)
Houston (+5.5) over ARIZONA
Score: ARI 28, HOU 21
The Texans were down 21-0 at halftime. I was thinking "Oh great, here we go again. I have 30 fantasy players on the Texans offense, and they are letting me down AGAIN." But wait, someone gave them a shot of HGH during the half, and they came out hot. 2 TDs from Schaub to Johnson, plus a rush TD tied the game at 21-21. They had all the momentum, the Cardinals were against the ropes. All they had to do was land one final blow, and... Schaub gift-wraps one for Rogers-Cromartie, throws it right into his gut. Easy 6 the other way and all the momentum (and the lead) vanish. Houston fights back however, getting the ball to the 1 yard line with under a minute left. 2nd and goal from the 1 and Chris Brown (NFL runningback, not to be confused with Kris Brown, NFL kicker, or Chris Brown, muscial artist and domestic abuser) can't get it in. Stupid game.
New York Jets (-2) over MIAMI
Score: MIA 31, NYJ 27
Ronnie Brown is a much better player than I have given him credit for. He means more to his offense than perhaps any other player in the league, short of Peyton Manning. Everyone gets all excited when the wildcat creates a big play, but I don't think that's reason the Dolphins won. Sure the wildcat puts a different spin on defensive packages, but I feel like it was just staright-up blocking and running back talent. Doesn't matter what formation you line up in, if you win the battle in the trenches, your running game will be fine. Give credit to the Dolphins. And give credit to Chad Henne for not making the big mistake.
Curent Record: 33-27
Ballsy Pick of the Week Record: 3-1
Fantasy Update:
League: WeLikeSportz
Lost to Team Like a BOSS! 112.77 - 94.68
If there is one thing I hate, it is leaving points on the bench. If I start Hasselbeck (over Brady), Nicks (over C. Johnson, who left the game after 1 catch, the baby), Benson (over Berrian in my flex position), and Heap (over Cooley, who laid a big fat goose egg this week) I would have scored 146.72 points. Fantasy football is a very stupid game.
Current Record: 2-3 (7th place)
League: League of Imported Spirits
Lost to Team JC 176.38 - 130.36
Let me just give you a quick run-down of how the scoring went this week:
1. 176.38 (JC)
2. 130.36 (me)
3. 113.31
4. 103.48
5. 84.04
6. 79.04
7. 78.82
8. 71.68
I HATE fantasy football...
Current Record: 2-3 (5th place)
Crap.
First week under .500, and I am not pleased with myself. This should not have been a hard week to pick. Besides the question of whether or not Eli would play, I didn't see much that would sway any of my decisions one way or the other. After seeing the Giants-Raiders game, David Carr probably could have covered that spread. So that's my bad. But who thought the Bengals, Broncos, and Dolphins would upset? No one. And if you did, you are crazy. Period.
Anyways, here are the few games I got right
Minnesota (-10) over ST. LOUIS 38-10
KANSAS CITY (+8) over Dallas 20-26
Cleveland (+6) over BUFFALO 6-3 (Ballsy Pick of the Week SUCESSFUL)
(Quick Note) This game was absolutely dreadful. The Cleveland Browns quarterback (who played the whole game mind you) went 2/17 for 23 yards and 1 INT. The Bills, on the other hand, lost to a team who's quarterback went 2/17 for 23 yards and 1 INT. Honestly, they should be embarrassed. This game was so bad that it has been named: The Worst 2 Teams that Aren't from Oakland or St. Louis Bowl.
Atlanta (+2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO 45-10
SEATTLE (-1.5) over Jacksonville 41-0
Indianapolis (-4) over TENNESSEE 31-9
I was very happy with 4 of the these 6 results (the 3 upsets and the Seahawks destruction of the Jaguars). The other 2 were not exactly surprises. Anyways, if you had told me I would get those 4 games right, I would assume I got at least 11 or 12 games right... not 6.
Here's where I messed up.
CAROLINA (-3.5) over Washington
Score: CAR 20, WAS 17
I thought it was a 2.5 point spread... Life is unfair.
Tampa Bay (+15) over PHILADELPHIA
Score: PHI 33, TB 14
The Buccs kept it relatively close to the 15 point spread. I remember thinking if they just added a field goal in the 4th quarter, the score would be 31-17 and I would cover. Unfortunately, at that exact moment, the Eagles added a safety. Crap. But it is never a good sign when your quarterback is your leading rusher... with 40 yards. You won't win many games like that.
Oakland (+15) over NEW YORK GIANTS
Score: NYG 44, OAK 7
Yeah, yeah, it was a dumb pick. I'm an idiot. Let's move on.
BALTIMORE (-6) over Cincinnati
Score: CIN 17, BAL 14
Cover or not, the Ravens should have won this game. Their offense performed well below its ability, and the defense gave up stupid penalty after stupid penalty and left the door open for the Bengals. And they still had a 4 point lead with half a minute to go. The D makes one big play and they win, but Ray Lewis decides to take a completely unnecessary shot at Ochocinco (drawing a 15 yard penalty) and Palmer beat them when it counted. By the way, that winning touchdown throw was a thing of beauty. I really hope the announcer said "ZING!" when it happened. Amazing throw.
Pittsburgh (-10.5) over Detroit
Score: PIT 28, DET 20
The Lions just live to ruin me don't they? I choose them to cover a 10 point spread against Chicago, they lose by 24. I DON'T choose them to cover a 10.5 point spread against Pittsburgh, they lose by 8. Ridiculous. Pick a side Lions. Team that gets blown out or team that keeps it close but ultimately loses? It's a lose-lose for you but I would like to know.
New England (-3) over DENVER
Score: DEN 20, NE 17 (OT)
(Stunned Silence...)
Houston (+5.5) over ARIZONA
Score: ARI 28, HOU 21
The Texans were down 21-0 at halftime. I was thinking "Oh great, here we go again. I have 30 fantasy players on the Texans offense, and they are letting me down AGAIN." But wait, someone gave them a shot of HGH during the half, and they came out hot. 2 TDs from Schaub to Johnson, plus a rush TD tied the game at 21-21. They had all the momentum, the Cardinals were against the ropes. All they had to do was land one final blow, and... Schaub gift-wraps one for Rogers-Cromartie, throws it right into his gut. Easy 6 the other way and all the momentum (and the lead) vanish. Houston fights back however, getting the ball to the 1 yard line with under a minute left. 2nd and goal from the 1 and Chris Brown (NFL runningback, not to be confused with Kris Brown, NFL kicker, or Chris Brown, muscial artist and domestic abuser) can't get it in. Stupid game.
New York Jets (-2) over MIAMI
Score: MIA 31, NYJ 27
Ronnie Brown is a much better player than I have given him credit for. He means more to his offense than perhaps any other player in the league, short of Peyton Manning. Everyone gets all excited when the wildcat creates a big play, but I don't think that's reason the Dolphins won. Sure the wildcat puts a different spin on defensive packages, but I feel like it was just staright-up blocking and running back talent. Doesn't matter what formation you line up in, if you win the battle in the trenches, your running game will be fine. Give credit to the Dolphins. And give credit to Chad Henne for not making the big mistake.
Curent Record: 33-27
Ballsy Pick of the Week Record: 3-1
Fantasy Update:
League: WeLikeSportz
Lost to Team Like a BOSS! 112.77 - 94.68
If there is one thing I hate, it is leaving points on the bench. If I start Hasselbeck (over Brady), Nicks (over C. Johnson, who left the game after 1 catch, the baby), Benson (over Berrian in my flex position), and Heap (over Cooley, who laid a big fat goose egg this week) I would have scored 146.72 points. Fantasy football is a very stupid game.
Current Record: 2-3 (7th place)
League: League of Imported Spirits
Lost to Team JC 176.38 - 130.36
Let me just give you a quick run-down of how the scoring went this week:
1. 176.38 (JC)
2. 130.36 (me)
3. 113.31
4. 103.48
5. 84.04
6. 79.04
7. 78.82
8. 71.68
I HATE fantasy football...
Current Record: 2-3 (5th place)
Saturday, October 10, 2009
NFL Week 5
In my opinion, 4 weeks is enough to get a feel for the season. Of course, I am not so near-sighted that I believe the current standings are going to hold until January, but I can tell which teams are in contention and which teams are just not going to cut it. I'm just gonna give you a quick run down of what I have seen so far:
AFC
1. Patriots
2. Ravens
3. Colts
4. Chargers
Wild Card Contenders: Jets, Steelers, Broncos, Bengals (in that order)
In Between Teams: Texans, Jaguars (these teams are here because I can't bring myself to put them in playoff contention at this point, but I'm not ready to write them off entirely)
Stinky Teams: Browns, Dolphins, Bills, Titans, Chiefs, Raiders (not necessarily in that order, but it really doesn't matter)
NFC
1. Giants
2. Vikings
3. Saints
4. 49ers
Wild Card Contenders: Eagles, Falcons, Bears, Packers, Cowboys
In Between Team: Cardinals, Seahawks
Stinky Teams: Redskins, Lions, Panthers, Buccaneers, Rams
Just to clarify, this is my playoff projection based on the first quarter of the year. I am anticipating changes come week 17. These are not, in any way, set in stone... although I have completely written off the 11 stinky teams, sorry.
Anyways, let's get started with the week 5 games:
Minnesota (-10) over ST. LOUIS
The Rams could play 16 home games and I'm not sure they could win any. I have no incentive to choose them to cover against the Vikings, especially if Favre is still alive... He is, right?.. Use the mirror, see if he's breathing... Ok good. Yeah I'm not going to pick them against anyone with a 4-0 record. Not even Denver.
KANSAS CITY (+8) over Dallas
Following the Cowboys-Broncos game last week, my buddy Kyle texted me and said something real snarky about how his fantasy defense (Denver) had come up big again. I had previously made fun of him for picking them up... but that's not important. I responded with this: "Yada, yada. They got lucky. Dallas has lost all signs of offensive competency". Just to clarify, I only used "yada, yada" because he puts it in texts all the time. I was mocking him. Anyways, if I'm being honest, I only said that because I hate Denver. Did I really believe it at the time? No. I wanted an excuse for why the Broncos are 4-0. But now that I think about it, it's true. The Cowboys offense looks lost without T.O. Injuries have slowed down the run game, and Romo's touch seems to be gone. Can they beat the Chiefs? Probably. By more than a TD? I think not.
CAROLINA (-3.5) over Washington
Just shoot me now. This game is going to be awful. Why did I pick the Panthers? I don't know. They have better uniforms, how about that?
Tampa Bay (+15) over PHILADELPHIA
The Eagles are still a little banged up, and Josh Johnson (hey, at least it isn't John Johnson) did well enough to keep the Buccs in the game. He didn't win but he was better than Byron "how poorly do I have to play before I get benched?" Leftwich. I just think the 15 point spread is kind of ridiculous. I think the Buccs could easily lose by only 14 points. Eagles win though, no questions there.
Oakland (+15) over NEW YORK GIANTS
Jamarcus Russell (or as I like to call him, "Alex Smith 2.0") continues to impress as he completed a miraculous 36% of his passes last week, for a mind-boggling 128 yards. If I asked you what you thought his rank was in terms of completion percentage and QB rating, you would say 32nd right? Well you would be wrong. He is 33rd. Go ahead look it up. He is sooo bad, that despite the fact there are only 31 OTHER TEAMS in the NFL, he still can't secure the spot of 32nd. Sad. Oh wait... I chose them to cover... crap... um... (searching for justification...). Oh that's right, Eli is questionable and the spread is -15. That is enough for me. Do you know who his backup is? David Carr. Yeah... let that sink in for a while.
Cleveland (+6) over BUFFALO
The Browns have to win a game sometime, right? We aren't going to have another 0-16 season. So why not now? The Bills looked equally crappy last week as they took a pounding from Chad Henne and the Dolphins. The Browns barely lost to a much improved Bengals team and I still believe the game should have been a tie. Derek Anderson has much more experience than Brady Quinn and he did lead the Browns to a 10-6 record just a few years ago. I think he is the man to start in Cleveland. So, in conclusion, my Ballsy Pick of The Week goes to the Browns, upsetting the Bills 20-17!!!
BALTIMORE (-6) over Cincinnati
Despite their impressive start, the Bengals just aren't as good as the Ravens. There is a huge discrepancy in defensive talent and I would give a pretty decent offensive edge to Baltimore as well. Add in the fact that it is a Ravens home game and they are coming in pissed after losing to New England, Cincy doesn't have much of a chance. I don't think it's gonna be close.
Pittsburgh (-10.5) over DETROIT
I picked the Lions to cover a +10 spread last week and they let me down. That defense just isn't ready for NFL offenses. Stafford and the offense pleasantly surprised me again, but he went down in the 2nd half and they lost by 24. He might not play and I don't think they'll be able to stick with the Steelers.
Atlanta (+2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO
This should be a good game. Atlanta comes in fresh after a bye week and they HAVE to be thinking up ways to get Tony Gonzalez and Michael Turner going. The 49ers are coming in hot after an absolute destruction of the Rams. Their defense is fast and physical, and they roughed up poor Kyle Boller. Matt Ryan better be ready. Shaun Hill still needs to prove he can be a starting NFL QB, and the Atlanta D is a good challenge. I think the Falcons win a close one.
New England (-3) over DENVER
At this point, I am begging for a Broncos loss. Please, Tom Brady. Please shred their defense into little tiny pieces. If they beat the Patriots, it's all over. I will have to admit that they are as good as their record. I am hoping the Patriots win by 30 but I don't think that's going to happen. Denver's defense IS good and they will be able to keep it close. Patriots by 7.
Houston (+5.5) over ARIZONA
I think it's time to give up on the Cardinals. We all enjoyed their Cinderella story last year, but that's over now. This is 2009 and the Cardinals have turned back into a pumpkin. Maybe a squash... which vegetable is most depressing? Anyways, I also think it's about time for the Texans offense to wake up and get going. The way I see it, as of right now, there are only 2 or 3 teams separating them from a wild card. They need to get it in gear. Texans win by 10.
SEATTLE (-1.5) over Jacksonville
If Hasselbeck plays, the Seahawks have a good chance in this one. They always play better when he is in the lineup. He is the heart and sole of the team. The defense is definitely capable of stopping Garrard, but they need to focus on Jones-Drew. If they can't stop him early, it's going to be a long day. Now, I'm not saying Seneca Wallace is a bad QB, but this team needs Hasselbeck. I say he plays and they win.
Indianapolis (-4) over TENNESSEE
I saw an article this week that was entitled "Are the Titans the best 0-4 team ever?" I thought to myself, "They very well could be. Has a team ever started so poorly after finishing with the league's best record the year before?" I did some research, and here's what I found: The 1955 Detroit Lions started 0-6, one year after going 9-2-1 and appearing in the NFL Championship game. Also the 1987 Giants, 1999 Broncos, and 2002 Rams all started 0-4 following 14-2 seasons. The Titans play the Colts and Patriots next so I would not be at all surprised to see them tie the Lions for that record. Oh as for the Colts... Peyton Manning is real good.
New York Jets (-2) over MIAMI
Don't get too excited Dolphins fans. It's only a 2 point spread because you rolled over a terrible Bills team last week, and you are at home. That's it. Don't get tricked into thinking the game is going to be decided by a field goal. Because it is. The Jets are the better team and you can't just run the Wildcat, their defense is too good. Also, make sure you can protect Henne because the Jets are gonna blitz all over the place. If he starts getting knocked down and sacked, it's not going to turn out well.
AFC
1. Patriots
2. Ravens
3. Colts
4. Chargers
Wild Card Contenders: Jets, Steelers, Broncos, Bengals (in that order)
In Between Teams: Texans, Jaguars (these teams are here because I can't bring myself to put them in playoff contention at this point, but I'm not ready to write them off entirely)
Stinky Teams: Browns, Dolphins, Bills, Titans, Chiefs, Raiders (not necessarily in that order, but it really doesn't matter)
NFC
1. Giants
2. Vikings
3. Saints
4. 49ers
Wild Card Contenders: Eagles, Falcons, Bears, Packers, Cowboys
In Between Team: Cardinals, Seahawks
Stinky Teams: Redskins, Lions, Panthers, Buccaneers, Rams
Just to clarify, this is my playoff projection based on the first quarter of the year. I am anticipating changes come week 17. These are not, in any way, set in stone... although I have completely written off the 11 stinky teams, sorry.
Anyways, let's get started with the week 5 games:
Minnesota (-10) over ST. LOUIS
The Rams could play 16 home games and I'm not sure they could win any. I have no incentive to choose them to cover against the Vikings, especially if Favre is still alive... He is, right?.. Use the mirror, see if he's breathing... Ok good. Yeah I'm not going to pick them against anyone with a 4-0 record. Not even Denver.
KANSAS CITY (+8) over Dallas
Following the Cowboys-Broncos game last week, my buddy Kyle texted me and said something real snarky about how his fantasy defense (Denver) had come up big again. I had previously made fun of him for picking them up... but that's not important. I responded with this: "Yada, yada. They got lucky. Dallas has lost all signs of offensive competency". Just to clarify, I only used "yada, yada" because he puts it in texts all the time. I was mocking him. Anyways, if I'm being honest, I only said that because I hate Denver. Did I really believe it at the time? No. I wanted an excuse for why the Broncos are 4-0. But now that I think about it, it's true. The Cowboys offense looks lost without T.O. Injuries have slowed down the run game, and Romo's touch seems to be gone. Can they beat the Chiefs? Probably. By more than a TD? I think not.
CAROLINA (-3.5) over Washington
Just shoot me now. This game is going to be awful. Why did I pick the Panthers? I don't know. They have better uniforms, how about that?
Tampa Bay (+15) over PHILADELPHIA
The Eagles are still a little banged up, and Josh Johnson (hey, at least it isn't John Johnson) did well enough to keep the Buccs in the game. He didn't win but he was better than Byron "how poorly do I have to play before I get benched?" Leftwich. I just think the 15 point spread is kind of ridiculous. I think the Buccs could easily lose by only 14 points. Eagles win though, no questions there.
Oakland (+15) over NEW YORK GIANTS
Jamarcus Russell (or as I like to call him, "Alex Smith 2.0") continues to impress as he completed a miraculous 36% of his passes last week, for a mind-boggling 128 yards. If I asked you what you thought his rank was in terms of completion percentage and QB rating, you would say 32nd right? Well you would be wrong. He is 33rd. Go ahead look it up. He is sooo bad, that despite the fact there are only 31 OTHER TEAMS in the NFL, he still can't secure the spot of 32nd. Sad. Oh wait... I chose them to cover... crap... um... (searching for justification...). Oh that's right, Eli is questionable and the spread is -15. That is enough for me. Do you know who his backup is? David Carr. Yeah... let that sink in for a while.
Cleveland (+6) over BUFFALO
The Browns have to win a game sometime, right? We aren't going to have another 0-16 season. So why not now? The Bills looked equally crappy last week as they took a pounding from Chad Henne and the Dolphins. The Browns barely lost to a much improved Bengals team and I still believe the game should have been a tie. Derek Anderson has much more experience than Brady Quinn and he did lead the Browns to a 10-6 record just a few years ago. I think he is the man to start in Cleveland. So, in conclusion, my Ballsy Pick of The Week goes to the Browns, upsetting the Bills 20-17!!!
BALTIMORE (-6) over Cincinnati
Despite their impressive start, the Bengals just aren't as good as the Ravens. There is a huge discrepancy in defensive talent and I would give a pretty decent offensive edge to Baltimore as well. Add in the fact that it is a Ravens home game and they are coming in pissed after losing to New England, Cincy doesn't have much of a chance. I don't think it's gonna be close.
Pittsburgh (-10.5) over DETROIT
I picked the Lions to cover a +10 spread last week and they let me down. That defense just isn't ready for NFL offenses. Stafford and the offense pleasantly surprised me again, but he went down in the 2nd half and they lost by 24. He might not play and I don't think they'll be able to stick with the Steelers.
Atlanta (+2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO
This should be a good game. Atlanta comes in fresh after a bye week and they HAVE to be thinking up ways to get Tony Gonzalez and Michael Turner going. The 49ers are coming in hot after an absolute destruction of the Rams. Their defense is fast and physical, and they roughed up poor Kyle Boller. Matt Ryan better be ready. Shaun Hill still needs to prove he can be a starting NFL QB, and the Atlanta D is a good challenge. I think the Falcons win a close one.
New England (-3) over DENVER
At this point, I am begging for a Broncos loss. Please, Tom Brady. Please shred their defense into little tiny pieces. If they beat the Patriots, it's all over. I will have to admit that they are as good as their record. I am hoping the Patriots win by 30 but I don't think that's going to happen. Denver's defense IS good and they will be able to keep it close. Patriots by 7.
Houston (+5.5) over ARIZONA
I think it's time to give up on the Cardinals. We all enjoyed their Cinderella story last year, but that's over now. This is 2009 and the Cardinals have turned back into a pumpkin. Maybe a squash... which vegetable is most depressing? Anyways, I also think it's about time for the Texans offense to wake up and get going. The way I see it, as of right now, there are only 2 or 3 teams separating them from a wild card. They need to get it in gear. Texans win by 10.
SEATTLE (-1.5) over Jacksonville
If Hasselbeck plays, the Seahawks have a good chance in this one. They always play better when he is in the lineup. He is the heart and sole of the team. The defense is definitely capable of stopping Garrard, but they need to focus on Jones-Drew. If they can't stop him early, it's going to be a long day. Now, I'm not saying Seneca Wallace is a bad QB, but this team needs Hasselbeck. I say he plays and they win.
Indianapolis (-4) over TENNESSEE
I saw an article this week that was entitled "Are the Titans the best 0-4 team ever?" I thought to myself, "They very well could be. Has a team ever started so poorly after finishing with the league's best record the year before?" I did some research, and here's what I found: The 1955 Detroit Lions started 0-6, one year after going 9-2-1 and appearing in the NFL Championship game. Also the 1987 Giants, 1999 Broncos, and 2002 Rams all started 0-4 following 14-2 seasons. The Titans play the Colts and Patriots next so I would not be at all surprised to see them tie the Lions for that record. Oh as for the Colts... Peyton Manning is real good.
New York Jets (-2) over MIAMI
Don't get too excited Dolphins fans. It's only a 2 point spread because you rolled over a terrible Bills team last week, and you are at home. That's it. Don't get tricked into thinking the game is going to be decided by a field goal. Because it is. The Jets are the better team and you can't just run the Wildcat, their defense is too good. Also, make sure you can protect Henne because the Jets are gonna blitz all over the place. If he starts getting knocked down and sacked, it's not going to turn out well.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Week 4 Mistakes
8-6.
Ugggggggggggggly.
Ugly week of football. I watched many of the games this past Sunday (switching between games mainly to follow fantasy players) and I saw a lot of stuff that made the football fan in me groan. Firstly, I saw a lot of poor blocking and tackling. Secondly, I saw horribly devised defensive packages (mainly soft zones that allow for 10-15 yards EVERY play). And lastly, I saw teams simply overwhelmed by the sheer incompetence of their own performance. As for the 13 games that didn't involve the Chargers, well... they were fine.
On the bright side, I got more than half the game right:
HOUSTON (-9) over Oakland 29-6
NEW ENGLAND (-2) over Baltimore 27-21
New York Giants (-8.5) over KANSAS CITY 27-16
Tampa Bay (+7.5) over WASHINGTON 13-16
INDIANAPOLIS (-10) over Seattle 34-17
MIAMI (+1) over Buffalo 38-10
SAN FRANCISCO (-9.5) over St. Louis 35-0
MINNESOTA (-3.5) over Green Bay 30-23
But those were the easy ones. You can't be a pro unless you get the really tough games right.
Tennessee (-3) over JACKSONVILLE
Score: JAC 37, TEN 17
Well I was off on this one just a little bit. The odds makers lured me in with the 3 point spread, and then BAM! I woke up in a bathtub full of ice with a very peculiar incision in my left lower abdomen. I shouldn't have trusted them...
Cincinnati (-6) over CLEVELAND
Score: CIN 23, CLE 20 (OT)
So now we know why Eric Mangini didn't want us all to know who he was starting. Because he was intentionally starting the wrong guy to sabotage the franchise!! Nice try, Mangini. But after 3 straight weeks of Brady Quinn in you face, he was forced to put in his REAL quarterback. And they almost WON. This game really had it all, didn't it? Rivalry, controversy, comebacks, late game heroics. The only thing missing was this exchange at the beginning of overtime:
(Referee flips coin)
Referee: It is tails. Cleveland has won the toss.
Derek Anderson: We want the ball. We're gonna score
(If you don't get the joke, click here)
Anyways, these 2 offensive juggernauts used up 14:56 of the allotted 15 minutes of overtime (surely for dramatic effect) and the game was finally won on a Shayne Graham field goal (by the way, I have seen the replay 8 times, and Graham has missed 8 consecutive field goals. There is no way this ball is not wide right). So if the refs had gotten the call right and Cleveland gets the ball back with 4 seconds, do they take a knee? I think they have to.
Offensive Coordinator Brian Daboll: Coach, what play do you want to run here?
Coach Eric Mangini: What? What do you mean "play"?
Offensive Coordinator Brian Daboll: ... Well um... we only have 4 seconds, do you wanna run the hook and ladder?
Coach Eric Mangini: Are you kidding me? We have a non-loss result locked up here! I'm not risking that! (Yelling towards field) TAKE A KNEE, DEREK, TAKE A KNEE!!!
(sorry that last one took so long, I couldn't resist the monologues)
Detroit (+10) over CHICAGO
Score: CHI 48, DET 24
Well it looked pretty good for me at halftime. The Lions were keeping up with the Bears and had the game tied 21-21. Unfortunately, Chicago remembered that they have the option and the ability to play defense when the other team has the ball. They did so. If you had told me that the Lions would score 24 points, I would have said "sweet, I'll take them to cover the spread". I may have underestimated this Bears offense... or overestimated the Lions defense. Anyways, don't look now, but the Bears are 3-1.
New York Jets (+7) over NEW ORLEANS (Ballsy Pick of the Week FAILED)
Score: NO 24, NYJ 10
This Jets defense did exactly what I wanted. They shut down Drew Brees (190 yards, 0 TDs) and that high-powered offense. They only gave up 10 points. The problem was Mark Sanchez. Remember how I predicted that Sanchez would struggle in his first few games? And then how I apologized for that after he won his first 3? Well, APOLOGY RESCINDED!!! Sanchez turned the ball over 4 times (3 Int, 1 fumble) which led to 2 TDs for the Saints defense. Sanchez lost this game. Plain and simple.
Dallas (-3) over DENVER
Score: DEN 17, DAL 10
Sigh... I am forced by a statement I made last post to give some respect to the Denver Broncos. I did not think they could win this game. They did. What can I say? Congrats Broncos. Your defense looked great. There. Respect. On the other hand, the Cowboys have lost all sign of offensive competency. They are competing with the undefeated Giants, and an Eagles team that is 2-1 and will be getting all their starters back soon. The Cowboys better pick it up. Tony Romo better pick it up.
San Diego (+6.5) over PITTSBURGH
Score: PIT 38, SD 28
I don't want to talk about it. Seriously.
Overall Record: 27-19
Ballsy Pick of the Week Record: 2-1
Fantasy Update:
League: WeLikeSportz
Won against Team Johnny 130.4 - 106.01
Another big win for me this week. I had the third highest score and I defeated our league's reigning champion. Brady had over 250 yards and 2 TDs for 23 points. Slaton FINALLY got on track, pulling in 20 points for me with 1 rushing and 1 receiving TD. Calvin Jonson had 19 and Chris Cooley remains the only noteworthy part of Washington's offense, catching another TD pass and finishing with 15 points. But I have to give this week's MVP to my defense. That's right, my DEFENSE. Minnesota had 8 sacks. Let me say that again. Minnesota had 8 sacks, 4.5 from Jared Allen. They also had an interception and a safety. 29 big points. They were the difference this week.
Current Record: 2-2 (4th place)
League: League of Imported Spirits
Lost to Team Unicorns 115.76 - 106.87
Peyton Manning continues to be... the best thing ever. He had another big game and scored 24 points. The PT cruiser (Pierre Thomas, if I forgot to clarify that last time) rode again with 19 points. Every one else had between 4.8 and 11 points, so I was a little disappointed with that production. On the other side, Steve Slaton and Chris Cooley came back to bite me because team Unicorns has them in this league. Also, Chad... sigh... Ochocinco made a nice contribution (14) and Aaron "not Brett Favre" Rodgers ended up with a very nice fantasy score of 25, despite being sacked 8 times. This was a big match up. I would have grabbed a share of first place with a win. Instead I drop 2 games back of team Unicorns, along with everyone else in the league.
Current Record: 2-2 (2nd place)
Ugggggggggggggly.
Ugly week of football. I watched many of the games this past Sunday (switching between games mainly to follow fantasy players) and I saw a lot of stuff that made the football fan in me groan. Firstly, I saw a lot of poor blocking and tackling. Secondly, I saw horribly devised defensive packages (mainly soft zones that allow for 10-15 yards EVERY play). And lastly, I saw teams simply overwhelmed by the sheer incompetence of their own performance. As for the 13 games that didn't involve the Chargers, well... they were fine.
On the bright side, I got more than half the game right:
HOUSTON (-9) over Oakland 29-6
NEW ENGLAND (-2) over Baltimore 27-21
New York Giants (-8.5) over KANSAS CITY 27-16
Tampa Bay (+7.5) over WASHINGTON 13-16
INDIANAPOLIS (-10) over Seattle 34-17
MIAMI (+1) over Buffalo 38-10
SAN FRANCISCO (-9.5) over St. Louis 35-0
MINNESOTA (-3.5) over Green Bay 30-23
But those were the easy ones. You can't be a pro unless you get the really tough games right.
Tennessee (-3) over JACKSONVILLE
Score: JAC 37, TEN 17
Well I was off on this one just a little bit. The odds makers lured me in with the 3 point spread, and then BAM! I woke up in a bathtub full of ice with a very peculiar incision in my left lower abdomen. I shouldn't have trusted them...
Cincinnati (-6) over CLEVELAND
Score: CIN 23, CLE 20 (OT)
So now we know why Eric Mangini didn't want us all to know who he was starting. Because he was intentionally starting the wrong guy to sabotage the franchise!! Nice try, Mangini. But after 3 straight weeks of Brady Quinn in you face, he was forced to put in his REAL quarterback. And they almost WON. This game really had it all, didn't it? Rivalry, controversy, comebacks, late game heroics. The only thing missing was this exchange at the beginning of overtime:
(Referee flips coin)
Referee: It is tails. Cleveland has won the toss.
Derek Anderson: We want the ball. We're gonna score
(If you don't get the joke, click here)
Anyways, these 2 offensive juggernauts used up 14:56 of the allotted 15 minutes of overtime (surely for dramatic effect) and the game was finally won on a Shayne Graham field goal (by the way, I have seen the replay 8 times, and Graham has missed 8 consecutive field goals. There is no way this ball is not wide right). So if the refs had gotten the call right and Cleveland gets the ball back with 4 seconds, do they take a knee? I think they have to.
Offensive Coordinator Brian Daboll: Coach, what play do you want to run here?
Coach Eric Mangini: What? What do you mean "play"?
Offensive Coordinator Brian Daboll: ... Well um... we only have 4 seconds, do you wanna run the hook and ladder?
Coach Eric Mangini: Are you kidding me? We have a non-loss result locked up here! I'm not risking that! (Yelling towards field) TAKE A KNEE, DEREK, TAKE A KNEE!!!
(sorry that last one took so long, I couldn't resist the monologues)
Detroit (+10) over CHICAGO
Score: CHI 48, DET 24
Well it looked pretty good for me at halftime. The Lions were keeping up with the Bears and had the game tied 21-21. Unfortunately, Chicago remembered that they have the option and the ability to play defense when the other team has the ball. They did so. If you had told me that the Lions would score 24 points, I would have said "sweet, I'll take them to cover the spread". I may have underestimated this Bears offense... or overestimated the Lions defense. Anyways, don't look now, but the Bears are 3-1.
New York Jets (+7) over NEW ORLEANS (Ballsy Pick of the Week FAILED)
Score: NO 24, NYJ 10
This Jets defense did exactly what I wanted. They shut down Drew Brees (190 yards, 0 TDs) and that high-powered offense. They only gave up 10 points. The problem was Mark Sanchez. Remember how I predicted that Sanchez would struggle in his first few games? And then how I apologized for that after he won his first 3? Well, APOLOGY RESCINDED!!! Sanchez turned the ball over 4 times (3 Int, 1 fumble) which led to 2 TDs for the Saints defense. Sanchez lost this game. Plain and simple.
Dallas (-3) over DENVER
Score: DEN 17, DAL 10
Sigh... I am forced by a statement I made last post to give some respect to the Denver Broncos. I did not think they could win this game. They did. What can I say? Congrats Broncos. Your defense looked great. There. Respect. On the other hand, the Cowboys have lost all sign of offensive competency. They are competing with the undefeated Giants, and an Eagles team that is 2-1 and will be getting all their starters back soon. The Cowboys better pick it up. Tony Romo better pick it up.
San Diego (+6.5) over PITTSBURGH
Score: PIT 38, SD 28
I don't want to talk about it. Seriously.
Overall Record: 27-19
Ballsy Pick of the Week Record: 2-1
Fantasy Update:
League: WeLikeSportz
Won against Team Johnny 130.4 - 106.01
Another big win for me this week. I had the third highest score and I defeated our league's reigning champion. Brady had over 250 yards and 2 TDs for 23 points. Slaton FINALLY got on track, pulling in 20 points for me with 1 rushing and 1 receiving TD. Calvin Jonson had 19 and Chris Cooley remains the only noteworthy part of Washington's offense, catching another TD pass and finishing with 15 points. But I have to give this week's MVP to my defense. That's right, my DEFENSE. Minnesota had 8 sacks. Let me say that again. Minnesota had 8 sacks, 4.5 from Jared Allen. They also had an interception and a safety. 29 big points. They were the difference this week.
Current Record: 2-2 (4th place)
League: League of Imported Spirits
Lost to Team Unicorns 115.76 - 106.87
Peyton Manning continues to be... the best thing ever. He had another big game and scored 24 points. The PT cruiser (Pierre Thomas, if I forgot to clarify that last time) rode again with 19 points. Every one else had between 4.8 and 11 points, so I was a little disappointed with that production. On the other side, Steve Slaton and Chris Cooley came back to bite me because team Unicorns has them in this league. Also, Chad... sigh... Ochocinco made a nice contribution (14) and Aaron "not Brett Favre" Rodgers ended up with a very nice fantasy score of 25, despite being sacked 8 times. This was a big match up. I would have grabbed a share of first place with a win. Instead I drop 2 games back of team Unicorns, along with everyone else in the league.
Current Record: 2-2 (2nd place)
Saturday, October 3, 2009
NFL Week 4
You have probably become accustomed to me ranting for a few paragraphs about the current state of the NFL before moving on to my predictions for the upcoming week. Well, too bad.
Home team in CAPS. And as always, red font indicates that I think the underdog will beat the spread.
Favorite Spread Underdog
HOUSTON -9 Oakland
Tennessee -3 JACKSONVILLE
NEW ENGLAND -2 Baltimore
Cincinnati -6 CLEVELAND
New York Giants -8.5 KANSAS CITY
CHICAGO -10 Detroit
WASHINGTON -7.5 Tampa Bay
INDIANAPOLIS -10 Seattle
NEW ORLEANS -7 New York Jets
Buffalo -1 MIAMI
SAN FRANCISCO -9.5 St. Louis
Dallas -3 DENVER
PITTSBURGH -6.5 San Diego
MINNESOTA -3.5 Green Bay
This week has possibly the highest number of terrible match ups in the history of professional football. And when I say terrible match ups, I mean either one team is downright awful and they should lose by 50, or both teams are awful and they would be lucky to score 10 combined. Take a look:
1) Houston's offense should go nuts against the Raiders
2) The Titans are the most disappointing team in the NFL and the Jaguars are just plain boring
3) The Browns are playing...
4) The Giants (who some have ranked as the number 1 team in the league) go against the hapless Chiefs (who have thus far given up 14,524 points)
5) The Redskins lost to the Rams and the Bucs are starting Josh Johnson (who is umm... who is he?)
6) The Bills have decided not to throw to their best receiver and apparently think NFL games last 45-55 minutes and the Dolphins have announced that the Wildcat will be used for 100% of their playcalling and they'll just have Ronnie Brown play QB
7) The Rams are playing...
That's half of the games right there!! And I was tempted to put Seattle at Indianapolis in there too because even though Seattle should be a decent team, you know the Colts are gonna win by at least 21. You know what? I am going to add that game. Now it's 8 out of 14. Not good.
And because these games are going to be so bad, I refuse to validate them with formal explanations to my picks for them:
HOUSTON (-9) over Oakland 35-10
Tennessee (-3) over JACKSONVILLE 16-13
Cincinnati (-6) over CLEVELAND 27-3
New York Giants (-8.5) over KANSAS CITY 30-9
Tampa Bay (+7.5) over WASHINGTON 14-9 (Redskins win the game, but don't cover)
INDIANAPOLIS (-10) over Seattle 44-17
MIAMI (+1) over Buffalo 16-14
SAN FRANCISCO (-9.5) over St. Louis 28-6
Good that's over.
Now for the remaining 6 games on the docket, I am expecting fairly good match ups from all of them.
NEW ENGLAND (-2) over Baltimore
Sigh... this one is tough. Toughest one so far this year. I can completely understand why it is only a 2 point spread. And I could see both team being the favorite. I believe New England gets the nod because they are at home. If I was choosing this game purely based on the level of talent of the individual players on the field, I would have to go with Baltimore. But there's more to it. There's Bill Belichick. There's the city of New England. There's that inexplicable... something about Tom Brady, and I just can't pick against him at home. I can't do it. This game is going to be close, I'm 99.9% sure. It should come down to one possession. And if you only had one possession, would you rather have Brady or Flacco under center? Yeah, that's what I thought.
Detroit (+10) over CHICAGO
I don't think people are giving Detroit enough credit. Matthew Stafford has played much better than we could have expected, and I know the Redskins aren't the greatest competition ever, but they are an NFL team, and we have to recognize that Detroit bested them last week. The 10 point spread here seems a little to high for me. The Bears do not have an offense that is going to score more than 30 points, not even against the Lions defense. They pound the run game and chew up the clock and leave the rest to the defense. So let's say the Bears score 28 points, I certainly believe the Lions offense can score 18. There's no escaping the fact that this is a much improved offense. Calvin Johnson and Kevin Jones lead a group of young up-and-comers who can move the ball. I don't think the Lions will win the game, I would put there chances at about 20-1. The Bears D is just too good. But I think they keep it within 10 points.
New York Jets (+7) over NEW ORLEANS
I don't think people are giving the Jets enough credit either. When you have a 3-0 team listed as more of an underdog than the Cleveland Browns... something isn't right. This is a very good defense, and if they can get a consistent run game going with Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, Mark Sanchez definitely looks up to the task of managing games. They beat the Patriots, and in this decade, that has to be recognized as a quality win. The Saints had some problems throwing the ball last week against Buffalo and if they don't get those sorted out, this Jets pass rush could present a lot of problems for Brees. So, in conclusion, I am making my Ballsy Pick of the Week and choosing the Jets to WIN. That's right. Straight up WIN. You play to win the game.
Dallas (-3) over DENVER
I'm not buying the Broncos. No sir, I am selling them hard. Yeah yeah, their defense has given up a total of 16 points in 3 games. Even considering their competition, that's impressive. But still, come on people, this is not going to last. They get a real test with Dallas coming tomorrow and I will give them some credit if they win. However, I do not think they will. The game will be close in the second half, but eventually Dallas will pull away and win by double digits.
San Diego (-6.5) over PITTSBURGH
This is absolutely outrageous. The Steelers are 1-2, they have lost to 2 teams that they definitely should have beaten, and they are still expected to beat us by a touchdown! We should be the favorites. We are one 4th and 2 conversion against the best team in the NFL away from being 3-0 right now and we don't get any respect. The Steelers just don't have it without Polamalu and the running game, ok? Stop trying to make excuses, they just aren't as good anymore. LT is coming back for SD and our passing game has been near unstoppable thus far. We win this game. No doubt in my mind.
MINNESOTA (-3.5) over Green Bay
This game was almost as tough as the the Patriots-Ravens, but not quite. I have much more faith in Minnesota in big games right now than I do in Green Bay. That win last week had to have been a huge boost for the Vikings. The 49ers look like a very good team this year and Favre seems just as magical as ever. Even though the play was complete luck, it doesn't happen if it's Tavaris Jackson out there. Again, I think this game will be close, but ultimately, the Vikings have the better defense and the better running game. They win by 7.
Home team in CAPS. And as always, red font indicates that I think the underdog will beat the spread.
Favorite Spread Underdog
HOUSTON -9 Oakland
Tennessee -3 JACKSONVILLE
NEW ENGLAND -2 Baltimore
Cincinnati -6 CLEVELAND
New York Giants -8.5 KANSAS CITY
CHICAGO -10 Detroit
WASHINGTON -7.5 Tampa Bay
INDIANAPOLIS -10 Seattle
NEW ORLEANS -7 New York Jets
Buffalo -1 MIAMI
SAN FRANCISCO -9.5 St. Louis
Dallas -3 DENVER
PITTSBURGH -6.5 San Diego
MINNESOTA -3.5 Green Bay
This week has possibly the highest number of terrible match ups in the history of professional football. And when I say terrible match ups, I mean either one team is downright awful and they should lose by 50, or both teams are awful and they would be lucky to score 10 combined. Take a look:
1) Houston's offense should go nuts against the Raiders
2) The Titans are the most disappointing team in the NFL and the Jaguars are just plain boring
3) The Browns are playing...
4) The Giants (who some have ranked as the number 1 team in the league) go against the hapless Chiefs (who have thus far given up 14,524 points)
5) The Redskins lost to the Rams and the Bucs are starting Josh Johnson (who is umm... who is he?)
6) The Bills have decided not to throw to their best receiver and apparently think NFL games last 45-55 minutes and the Dolphins have announced that the Wildcat will be used for 100% of their playcalling and they'll just have Ronnie Brown play QB
7) The Rams are playing...
That's half of the games right there!! And I was tempted to put Seattle at Indianapolis in there too because even though Seattle should be a decent team, you know the Colts are gonna win by at least 21. You know what? I am going to add that game. Now it's 8 out of 14. Not good.
And because these games are going to be so bad, I refuse to validate them with formal explanations to my picks for them:
HOUSTON (-9) over Oakland 35-10
Tennessee (-3) over JACKSONVILLE 16-13
Cincinnati (-6) over CLEVELAND 27-3
New York Giants (-8.5) over KANSAS CITY 30-9
Tampa Bay (+7.5) over WASHINGTON 14-9 (Redskins win the game, but don't cover)
INDIANAPOLIS (-10) over Seattle 44-17
MIAMI (+1) over Buffalo 16-14
SAN FRANCISCO (-9.5) over St. Louis 28-6
Good that's over.
Now for the remaining 6 games on the docket, I am expecting fairly good match ups from all of them.
NEW ENGLAND (-2) over Baltimore
Sigh... this one is tough. Toughest one so far this year. I can completely understand why it is only a 2 point spread. And I could see both team being the favorite. I believe New England gets the nod because they are at home. If I was choosing this game purely based on the level of talent of the individual players on the field, I would have to go with Baltimore. But there's more to it. There's Bill Belichick. There's the city of New England. There's that inexplicable... something about Tom Brady, and I just can't pick against him at home. I can't do it. This game is going to be close, I'm 99.9% sure. It should come down to one possession. And if you only had one possession, would you rather have Brady or Flacco under center? Yeah, that's what I thought.
Detroit (+10) over CHICAGO
I don't think people are giving Detroit enough credit. Matthew Stafford has played much better than we could have expected, and I know the Redskins aren't the greatest competition ever, but they are an NFL team, and we have to recognize that Detroit bested them last week. The 10 point spread here seems a little to high for me. The Bears do not have an offense that is going to score more than 30 points, not even against the Lions defense. They pound the run game and chew up the clock and leave the rest to the defense. So let's say the Bears score 28 points, I certainly believe the Lions offense can score 18. There's no escaping the fact that this is a much improved offense. Calvin Johnson and Kevin Jones lead a group of young up-and-comers who can move the ball. I don't think the Lions will win the game, I would put there chances at about 20-1. The Bears D is just too good. But I think they keep it within 10 points.
New York Jets (+7) over NEW ORLEANS
I don't think people are giving the Jets enough credit either. When you have a 3-0 team listed as more of an underdog than the Cleveland Browns... something isn't right. This is a very good defense, and if they can get a consistent run game going with Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, Mark Sanchez definitely looks up to the task of managing games. They beat the Patriots, and in this decade, that has to be recognized as a quality win. The Saints had some problems throwing the ball last week against Buffalo and if they don't get those sorted out, this Jets pass rush could present a lot of problems for Brees. So, in conclusion, I am making my Ballsy Pick of the Week and choosing the Jets to WIN. That's right. Straight up WIN. You play to win the game.
Dallas (-3) over DENVER
I'm not buying the Broncos. No sir, I am selling them hard. Yeah yeah, their defense has given up a total of 16 points in 3 games. Even considering their competition, that's impressive. But still, come on people, this is not going to last. They get a real test with Dallas coming tomorrow and I will give them some credit if they win. However, I do not think they will. The game will be close in the second half, but eventually Dallas will pull away and win by double digits.
San Diego (-6.5) over PITTSBURGH
This is absolutely outrageous. The Steelers are 1-2, they have lost to 2 teams that they definitely should have beaten, and they are still expected to beat us by a touchdown! We should be the favorites. We are one 4th and 2 conversion against the best team in the NFL away from being 3-0 right now and we don't get any respect. The Steelers just don't have it without Polamalu and the running game, ok? Stop trying to make excuses, they just aren't as good anymore. LT is coming back for SD and our passing game has been near unstoppable thus far. We win this game. No doubt in my mind.
MINNESOTA (-3.5) over Green Bay
This game was almost as tough as the the Patriots-Ravens, but not quite. I have much more faith in Minnesota in big games right now than I do in Green Bay. That win last week had to have been a huge boost for the Vikings. The 49ers look like a very good team this year and Favre seems just as magical as ever. Even though the play was complete luck, it doesn't happen if it's Tavaris Jackson out there. Again, I think this game will be close, but ultimately, the Vikings have the better defense and the better running game. They win by 7.
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