Week 3 Mistakes

10-6.

Getting better. I would like to have gotten to the 11, 12, 13 win section but we'll get there, don't you worry. Week 3 was a much more predictable week in the NFL, only 4 teams listed as underdogs came away with victories (one of which was Indy and I refuse to count them as an underdog against Arizona, so really just 3). In my eyes, I made 2 drastic mistakes this week, just 2.

First, I should have trusted my first instinct to pick the Bengals over Pittsburgh. (I actually DID pick them in the pool I'm doing, because I accidentally sent my original picks before I changed them). I knew they would make a game out of it, I just wasn't ready to trust them. That's my bad. And second, I gave the Browns way too much credit. I even said when I picked them to beat the spread against Cleveland that I was probably giving them more credit than they deserved. That was also my bad.

Anyways, I did fairly well and here are the 10 games I picked correctly:

Phildelphia (-9) over Kansas City 34-14
New York Giants (-7) over Tampa Bay 24-0
Detroit (+6) over Washington 19-14 (Ballsy Pick of the Week SUCESSFUL)
Green Bay (-6.5) over St. Louis 36-17
New England (-4) over Atlanta 26-10
New Orleans (-6) over Buffalo 27-7
San Diego (-6) over Miami 23-13
Denver (-1.5) over Oakland 23-3
Indianapolis (+2.5) over Arizona 31-10
Dallas (-9) over Carolina 21-7

Yay for me, those are all good and dandy. Now here are the games I SHOULD have picked correctly:

Tennessee (+2.5) over New York Jets
Score: NYJ 24, TEN 17
I really thought the Titans would be able to gather themselves and come away with a win against young Mark Sanchez. Apparently not. I suppose Albert Haynesworth DID make that much of a difference in the defensive line. The Titans were ok against the run but they applied very little pressure to Sanchez. Is it time to give up on Tennessee? Well, they play Jacksonville next week, so maybe not...

Houston (-4) over Jacksonville
Score: JAX 31, HOU 24
Another rousing performance from the high powered Houston offense. I swear if Slaton doesn't do something against the Raiders next week, he is going on my fantasy bench in favor of Willie Parker. I am not joking around here. The Texans have been a huge disappointment this far, only scraping a win against Tennessee (which is getting less impressive by the minute). Everyone thought this was the year when they finally break out and make the playoffs. Well they are 1-2 and they haven't even played Peyton Manning and the Peyton Manningettes yet. It is not looking good for Houston.

Cleveland (+13.5) over Baltimore
Score: BAL 34, CLE 3
Come on Cleveland, we gave you a two TD cushion and you lose by 31 points!? What's the matter with you? Is it that you all hate Eric Mangini? Is it the Brady Quinn really has no talent at all? What is the problem? The University of Florida could have gone in there and kept it closer than 34-3! Thanks for nothing Cleveland.

Minnesota (-7) over San Francisco
Score: MIN 27, SF 24
Minnesota did win the game, thanks to Admiral Waffler in the back field over there (by the way, everyone needs to chill about Favre. That play was 95% Greg Lewis, 4% blocking, and 1% Favre scrambling and chucking) but they did not cover the 7 point spread. I assumed this game would show us that the Vikings were for real and that the Niners still had some stuff to work out. It showed me quite the opposite. Yes the Vikings won, but they did not look great. Besides the last second miracle, Favre didn't do much and Peterson had a rather pedestrian day running the ball. The 49ers were the team that impressed me. Vernon Davis came out of nowhere and caught 2 big TD passes and the defense really held the Viking in check. In my opinion the 49ers were the better teams for 59 minutes and 58 seconds. The Vikings stole this win.

Seattle (+2) over Chicago
Score: CHI 25, SEA 19
Stupid Jay Cutler and his late game heroics. Neither team looked very good in this game (well that's not true, the Seahawks looked awesome in those green jerseys), but they didn't play very well. Seneca Wallace has proved that he is a servicable back up but there is just something about the Seahawks that seems almost uncaring. They are behaving very lackidaisically and they have forced me to once again change my mind about that division. 49ers all the way!

Pittsburgh (-4) over Cincinnati
Score: CIN 23, PIT 20
Like I said before, I should have gone with my gut. The Steelers defense looks totally lost without Polamalu and Big Ben is being forced to do everything because the run game has completely stalled. Big win for the Bengals, congrats to them.

Overall Record: 19-13
Ballsy Pick of the Week Record: 2-0

Fantasy Update:
League: WeLikeSportz
Won against Team Weed 116.06 - 93.37
Woohoo! Finally got in the win column. I needed this one, I was not ready start 0-3 and fall 3 games back of the leader. Brady gave me 20 which is just what I needed from him. The Jackson twins (Steven and Vincent) again preformed very well, giving me a combined 32.77 points. And Slaton was ALRIGHT, I guess. I am watching for a big game for him next week against the lowly Raiders.
Current Record: 1-2

League: League of Imported Spirits
Won against Team Take Me 2 the River 153.36 - 138.32
Highest score of the week! Alright! Peyton Manning was an absolute beast, scoring over 37 points. And the PT cruiser (kudos to Edward for the awesome nickname) came back from an injury and came up big with 2 TD runs for New Orleans. I got 9.6, 9.7, and 9.8 from Michael Turner, Fred Jackson, and Owen Daniels respectively. Everyone pulled their weight and I was very pleased with my team this week. Keep up the good work.
Current Record: 2-1

NFL Week 3

Injuries are running amok in the NFL. Stars such as LaDainian Tomlinson, Marion Barber, Randy Moss, Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, Kevin Curtis, DeSean Jackson, and Asante Samuel will all most likely be missing action this week (if you were paying attention, you would have realized that the last 5 players I listed all play for Philly... and I STILL picked them to beat KC).

But injuries are a part of the game, always have been. The great teams can adapt and fill those spots, while other teams fall to pieces without their star. That's how we sort out the men from the boys. This week is going to be very telling for teams like Philadelphia, Dallas, and New England. Step up or shut up.

Here are the week 3 match ups (Home team in CAPS):

Favorite Spread Underdog
NEW YORK JETS -2.5 Tennessee
HOUSTON -4 Jacksonville
PHILADELPHIA -9 Kansas City
BALTIMORE -13.5 Cleveland
New York Giants -7 TAMPA BAY
Washington -6 DETROIT
Green Bay -6.5 ST. LOUIS
MINNESOTA -7 San Francisco
NEW ENGLAND -4 Atlanta
Chicago -2 SEATTLE
New Orleans -6 BUFFALO
SAN DIEGO -6 Miami
Pittsburgh -4 CINCINNATI
Denver -1.5 OAKLAND
ARIZONA -2.5 Indianapolis
DALLAS -9 Carolina

Just like last week, the games in red are the ones in which I do not believe the favorite will cover the spread. I will get to those shortly, but first I'm going to quickly run through the other games.

HOUSTON (-4) over Jacksonville
The Texans offense showed up last week, and they pulled out a huge win against Tennessee. Jacksonville does not have nearly as much talent as Tennessee (especially on the defensive side) so I expect a similar performance from Schaub and Houston's offense. Score: 28-13

PHILADELPHIA (-9) over Kansas City
Despite the fact that every notable Eagles starter is injured this week, Kansas City has shown me absolutely nothing to make me think they can go into Philly and get the W. Nothing at all. Even Kevin Kolb and LeSean McCoy can move the ball against the Chiefs defense, and unless Matt Cassel goes...... Matt Cassel on the Eagles, I don't see much hope for floundering KC. Score: 24-13

New York Giants (-7) over TAMPA BAY
The Buccaneers just aren't a very good football team anymore. They were defeated pretty handily by the Buffalo Bills last week. And seriously, have you ever seen a less impressive roster? I'm really starting to think that Dirk Johnson is their best player. He's already got 463 yards in just 2 games! On the other hand, the Giants have loads of talent, including Mario Manningham, who is of right now the number 1 fantasy receiver in the league (and who is now on my fantasy team). Score: 30-17

Green Bay (-6.5) over ST. LOUIS
The Rams are awful. Green Bay is coming in angry after that loss to Cincy last week, and the Rams are powerless to stop them. They will not lose 2 in a row. Period. Only a 6.5 point spread? No contest. Score: 27-6

MINNESOTA (-4) over San Francisco
This is an interesting match up. Both teams are 2-0 and there should be a good battle between Adrian Peterson and a tough 49ers defense. But the Vikings are at home, they also have a very strong defense, and I trust their offense more than I do San Fran's. Good game, but Minnesota proves to be too much for the Niners. Score: 24-14

NEW ENGLAND (-4) over Atlanta
I think the Falcons are going to be a very tough team this year. Most likely a better team than New England when it's all said an done. But I have learned it's never a good idea to doubt Bill Belichick. He knows what he is doing and he will have this team ready to go (no matter who Brady will be throwing to). I just can't see the Patriots slipping to 1-2. Brady bounces back after a lackluster performance against the Jets and pulls out a win in the 4th quarter. Score: 31-24

New Orleans (-6) over BUFFALO
So I was thinking, what's the spread going to be for the Saints game in week 3? Maybe 40, 50 points? I decided that if it was -14 or higher I would really have to think about it. What with a Bills D that looked awfully good against Tampa Bay (and New England for 55 minutes) and the fact that it's going to be cold and wet in Buffalo. However, they made it real easy for me. Only -6?!?! I'll take that all day. Score: 35-21

SAN DIEGO (-6) over Miami
Rivers threw the ball ALL OVER the Ravens defense last week, but the banged up offensive line couldn't come through, and the Chargers dropped a game in which they had many chances to win (oh, and the worst play call in the history of forever didn't help either). The Dolphins really dominated the Colts defense, and proved that they can move the ball with the run game. However, their defense apparently forgot how to do anything remotely related to defensive football, and they lost the game. They will meet a similar fate this week, playing against a much better defense. Score: 38-23

Pittsburgh (-4) over CINCINNATI
I really wanted to pick the Bengals. It would have been a slap across the face of the Steelers Superbowl victory to pick them to lose to Cincy the next year. But I just couldn't do it. The Steelers are not going to start 1-2. Especially when it's pretty certain the Ravens will be 3-0. They have too much talent to lose to Chicago and Cincinnati in back to back weeks. They will be ready to play and the Bengals offense will find themselves under a lot of pressure. Score: 27-21

Denver (-1.5) over OAKLAND
This is just embarrassing. Look at how weak the AFC West is. Denver, who is technically the best team in the AFC West at the moment, is only a 1.5 point favorite over Oakland? As in the Oakland RAIDERS??? Am I missing something??? Anyways, Denver has a decent offense and no defense to speak of, and the opposite is true for Oakland. The game will come down to turnovers and special teams. Yuck, how boring. Score: 20-16

DALLAS (-9) over Carolina
Oh, Tony Romo is so TERRIBLE!! How did we ever let this guy start for an NFL team?? He has no skill whatsoever and we should cut him from the squad. Everyone just shut up ok? Tony Romo is a fine quarterback, top 10 in my opinion. He had one bad game and now everyone wants to castrate him. Everyone just chill for a second. It was one game, against a good defense, and they only lost by 2. Give the guy a break. He has a struggling Panthers team coming in to HIS stadium, and he is going to bounce back and have a good game, just give him the opportunity. Sheesh. Score: 34-21

So those are the games in which I think the favorites will win and cover the spread.

Here are the 5 games in which I am calling upsets.

Tennessee (+2.5) over NEW YORK JETS
Yes I watched the Jets game last week, they looked very good, I'll admit it. But this game isn't about them. This game is about the Tennessee Titans. A team that started 10-0 and ultimately finished with the best record in the NFL at 13-3. And now they have an 0-2 record staring them in the face (and in Jeff Fisher's case, staring him in the mustache). The Jets will have difficulty in moving the ball against a talented D, and they are going to have to figure out how to stop Chris Johnson, who absolutely exploded last week. The Titans won't start 0-3. Score: 23-16

BALTIMORE (-13.5) over Cleveland
Let me make myself quite clear, I am NOT choosing Cleveland to win this game. I mean, a Ravens home game? Against the Browns?? I would have to be out of my mind. However, I think this game will be closer than you might expect. I guess I'm giving the Browns more credit than... well probably more than they deserve. But I don't think the Ravens cover the 2 TD spread. Score: 24-13

DETROIT (+6) over Washington
... Oh wait... Did I write that wrong?... NO I DIDN'T!!! I am choosing the Detroit Lions to win a football game! That's right! Obviously, this is my Ballsy Pick of the Week. The Lions, who haven't won a game since 145 BC, will in fact win tomorrow, at home, against Washington. The Lions offense has scored 40 points in the first 2 games. That's actually not too bad. The problem is that their defense has given up 70 million. But this week they play a Redskins offense that could only muster 9 points against St. Louis. I think this is week, Lions fans! Score: 24-19

SEATTLE (+2) over Chicago
Seattle was humiliated last week. Their offense did very little against the 49ers defense and Hasselbeck went down with Donovan McNabb-itis. Even if Seneca Wallace is the starter, I think the Seahawks win this home game. They have a much better defense than what we saw last week and if the running game and T.J Houshamazilly can get going, this team could be a force in the NFC West...... which isn't saying much... but still... Score: 28-24

Indianapolis (+2.5) over Arizona
It sounds silly, but I just can't seem to pick the Colts to lose. Maybe if they were playing Baltimore or Minnesota or New Orleans. But it's the Cardinals. I just can't go against Peyton Manning. He had the ball for less than 15 minutes, and he had over 300 yards passing and 2 TDs. That just doesn't happen to normal people. How is Arizona's defense going to stop him if he can do stuff like that? It's almost unfair. Score: 31-20

Week 2 Mistakes

9-7

That's not a bad week. I'm not thrilled with my pick record but I'll take it for a week that saw half of its games end in an upset. But it looks like that is to be expected from the NFL this year. After only 2 weeks, there are only 9 teams who don't have a loss, and only 4 of them really deserve it. These 4 are the Jets, Ravens, Falcons, and Giants. These teams have looked great and have played at least one challenging opponent.

The other 5 are the Broncos, Colts, Vikings, Saints, and 49ers. The Broncos have played the Bengals and Browns (and barely beat the former, by the way). The Colts barely squeaked past the Jaguars and controlled the ball for less than 15 minutes against the Dolphins. They could very, VERY easily be 0-2. The Vikings have played the Browns and Lions (and even though they have looked fantastic, I need to see them play a real team before I let them into the "deserved" club). The Saints offense is the best in football yes, but they played Detroit and a McNabb-less Eagles. Again, I need to see how their D responds to a real offense. And the 49ers... well they have played two NFC West games... so yeah...

Anyways, here are the games I got right this week:

Oakland (+3) over Kansas City 13-10
New York Jets (+4) over New England 16-9 (Ballsy Pick of the Week SUCCESSFUL)
Minnesota (-10) over Detroit 27-13
Atlanta (-6.5) over Carolina 28-20
Arizona (+3) over Jacksonville 31-17
Buffalo (-4.5) over Tampa Bay 33-20
Denver (-3) over Cleveland 27-6
Baltimore (+3) over San Diego 31-26
Indianapolis (-3) over Miami 27-23

And here are the games I picked incorrectly (including explanations as to why):

Titans (-6.5) over Houston
Score: HOU 34, TEN 31
Last week, the Texans offense was no where to be found (I would know, I have RB Steve Slaton in one of my fantasy leagues and WR Andre Johnson and TE Owen Daniels in the other). Also, if it weren't for two critical misses by Tennessee kicker Rob Bironas, the Titans would have beaten the Steelers. So yeah, I expected the Titans to win by a TD. I did not expect an offensive explosion. The Titans do not want to play that type of game. The Texans DO want to play that type of game. They were simply better suited to the game style.

Green Bay (-9.5) over Cincinnati
Score: CIN 31, GB 24
I didn't watch this game so I really don't know what happened. The Packers were coming off an emotional comeback win over Chicago. As for the Bengals, well I was convinced they were doomed to lose every game. Seriously, have you ever seen anything more unlucky happen on a football field? I care about the Bengals less than almost every other team, and I felt horrible about that play, like I wanted to give Marvin Lewis a big hug. But give them credit, they won. That's all I can say.

Philadelphia (Even) over New Orleans
Score: NO 48, PHI 22
Ok, so I should have taken the McNabb injury into account. I really thought he was gonna tough it out and play. But still, I thought the Eagles D would put up more of a fight against Brees and his air-it-out offense. I guess the Saints O is the real deal, but how will their D hold up against teams like Atlanta, Dallas, and New York (both of them)?

Washington (-10) over St. Louis
Score: WAS 9, STL 7
So even though I got the winner right, the Redskins did not cover the spread like I said they would. I am completely shocked that the Rams defense held an NFL team to 9 points. The Redskins don't possess the most powerful offense ever, but come on, it's the Rams. The Rams offense performed just as I though they would, but unfortunately for me, the defense actually looked halfway decent.

Seattle (+1.5) over San Francisco
Score: SF 23, SEA 10
Even though the NFC West is weaker than Tila Tequila's neck muscles (never gonna let you live this one down Merriman... even though the charges were dropped), the 49ers defense has looked real good. Almost as good as Megan Fox on the cover of Rolling Stone Magazine... but not quite. However, I'm not buying San Fran just yet. Hasselbeck went out with an injury for Seattle but like I said, they need to play someone from another division (ANY other division) before I make my decision concerning them.

Pittsburgh (-3) over Chicago
Score: CHI 17, PIT 14
Wow, wow, wow. I did not see this one coming. Not at all. Even without Brian Urlacher, the Bears defense was large and in charge. The Steelers even had to resort to giving Big Ben the ball on a play action bootleg to get into the endzone. Cutler played much better this week, against a great D by the way, throwing for 238 yards and 2 TDs. BUT, despite all that, the Steelers should have won the game. Old reliable Jeff Reed completely whiffed on two, count 'em two, makable field goals in the 4th quarter. I feel that if the Bears had been down 6, the Steelers pressure would have been much more substanstial as they drove down the field at the end of the game. But that's football. You cannot leave points on the field against anyone.

Dallas (-3) over New York Giants
Score: NYG 33, DAL 31
I knew this game was going to be close, and I'm not surprised at all that the Giants pulled out the win. I gave Dallas the edge because 1) it was the grand opening premiere of Jerryland Stadium 2) they have a scary good combo of RBs in the backfield and 3) the Giants don't have any established talent at the WR position, unless you count Steve "The Other Steve Smith" Smith. However, Mario Manningham stepped up and had a big game (150 yards and 1 TD). And Eli Manning looked very Peyton-esque as he drove the Giants down the field, down by 1 with less than 4 minutes left. Both defenses looked shaky at times, but Dallas could not get a single finger on Manning when it mattered most.

Overall Record: 9-7
Ballsy Pick of the Week Record: 1-0

Fantasy Update
League: WeLikeSportz
Lost to Team Bill Simmons 154.52-134.02
Tom Brady killed me this week, only scoring 9 points. I need 20-25 from him every week or I am not going to win very much. Both Steven and Vincent Jackson pulled their weight, and Steve Slaton was my only other player in single digits (6.07). He has been a huge disappointment so far. But what really screwed me was the 82.55 combined points for Team Bill Simmons' QB Matt Schaub and RB Frank Gore. RIDICULOUS.
Current Record: 0-2

League: League of Imported Spirits
Won against Team Pearly Gates 129.27-72.38
Peyton Manning and Andre Johnson both scored in the 20s. Michael Turner, Owen Daniels, and Fred Jackson all made double digit contributions. I was very happy with this team in week 2 and with Pierre Thomas coming back from an injury, things are looking up.
Current Record: 1-1

Check in again on Saturday for week 3 predictions.

NFL Week 2

So I got up at 9:00 this morning (shocking I know) to watch my California Golden Bears take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers (a golden bear would completely destroy a golden gopher in real life). They started fast and ended well, but there was some shaky play in between. Still, I'll take the 35-21 win and a 5 TD performance from RB Jahvid Best, who, by the way, has the best name ever.

I continued watching college football because both No. 1 Florida and No. 3 USC were starting their games. I didn't think Tennessee would get anywhere near Florida, but they kept it relatively close and I learned that Eric Berry is the best defensive player in the nation. The final score was 23-13 in favor of Florida. As for USC... well they lost to Washington. That's right Washington, the team that won exactly zero games last year. They just took down USC 16-13. While Washington played admirably, USC looked awful. Backup QB Aaron Corp looked like a small rabbit matched against a monster truck. It was almost sad to watch at times. If Matt Barkley hadn't been injured, the Trojans would probably have won. But that's life!

Anyways, let's move on to the big boys, the ones who play on Sunday. Let's look at the match ups for week 2 of the NFL season.

Oakland (+3) @ Kansas City
Houston (+6.5) @ Tennessee
New England (-4) @ New York Jets
Cincinnati (+9) @ Green Bay
Detroit (+10) @ Minnesota
New Orleans (Even) @ Philadelphia
Carolina (+6.5) @ Atlanta
St. Louis (+10) @ Washington
Arizona (+3) @ Jacksonville
Seattle (+1.5) @ San Francisco
Tampa Bay (+4.5) @ Buffalo
Cleveland (+3) @ Denver
Baltimore (+3) @ San Diego
Pittsburgh (-3) @ Chicago
New York Giants (+3) @ Dallas
Indianapolis (-3) @ Miami

You may be wondering why I made some of them red. I'll explain that later. But first, I'm going to explain all those crazy pluses and minuses. If you are familiar with line bets (or "the spread" as I call it) then let your mind wander for the next few minutes.

For each game, some unknown authority creates the line bets, or the spread. Basically all it is, is how much they think a team will win or lose by. Take the Monday night game, Indy @ Miami. You see that Indy is -3. That means that the odds makers think they will win by 3 points. So if you subtract 3 from their score, the game would be a tie. Make sense? If a team has a +3, like the Giants, that means they think that team will lose by 3 points, because adding 3 points to their score would make it even. Simple right?

Betting using the spread is also very simple. Let's use the Monday night game again as an example. If I think the Colts are going to win by 4 or more points, which I do, I bet on them to "cover the spread". If the final score is Indy 28 Miami 24, the Colts cover the spread and I win the bet. Same for if the score was 28-10, 36-3, or 77-0, because the Colts would have won by more than 3 in any of those scenarios. Got it? Now, if I think the Dolphins will either win the game or lose by less than 2, which I don't, I bet on the Dolphins to beat the spread. If the final score is Indy 28 Miami 27, Miami beats the spread and I win the bet. I also win that bet if Miami wins by any margin. By the way, if the game ends in a 3 point win for Indy, it is a "push" and all bets are returned. So nobody wins or loses.

That's the best way I can explain it, if you need more clarification... use the internet.

Moving on. The games I left in black are the ones in which I think the favorites will cover the spread. There is a very simple way to tell who the favorite is without having to think too hard and do complicated mathematics: If a team has a + next to it, their OPPONENT is the favorite. If a team has a - next to it, IT is the favorite. But just to make it easy this time, I have bolded all the favorites for you. So all the teams that are in bold black, I expect to win.

As for those pesky red games. Those are the games in which I think the favorites will NOT cover the spread. And I am going to take a little time to explain why.

Oakland (+3) @ Kansas City
Kansas City is listed as a 3 point favorite, but I think Oakland wins this game. I don't like the thought of it, but I'm trying to be realistic. The Raiders showed us last Monday that they have a legitimate run offense and a formidable defense. Yes, their pass offense needs a lot of work, but Kansas City seems much worse off to me. Matt Cassel is listed as questionable, but I don't think he's going to play and the defense looked dreadful against Baltimore. I think Oakland wins this one by at least a touchdown, maybe ten points.
New England (-4) @ New York Jets
This game qualifies as my "Ballsy Pick of the Week". I will try to have one every week but I can't make any promises. The Patriots stole a win from Buffalo last week, due mainly to dumb luck. Brady and the offense got off to a very sluggish start, and the defense lost Jerod Mayo, the core of their linebacker corps (haha, core of the corps...). The Jets, on the other hand, handed (I'm on fire with this double word thing!) a 24-7 loss to the Texans, in a very impressive fashion might I add. Add on the fact (Boom, three times in one paragraph) that the Jets seem ferociously set on "embarrassing" the Patriots, I'm gonna say they not only beat the spread, but they win the game too!
New Orleans (Even) @ Philadelphia
They think this game is going to be sooooo close that they couldn't even pick a favorite. They left the spread even and all you have to do for this bet is pick the winner. I'm giving Philadelphia the edge because they are at home. *Shrugs* I'm a simple man.
Arizona (+3) @ Jacksonville
I will concede that the Cardinals offense looked like Romeo Crenell on ritalin ( the joke is funny because Romeo is famous for showing NO EMOTION out there on the field, seriously, search for a picture of him yelling... there isn't one!!!) But, I know that that Superbowl caliber offense is down there somewhere, and I think a nice to trip to Jacksonville may be able to coax it out. Cardinals win 27-21
Seattle (+1.5) @ San Francisco
I think Seattle is better than San Francisco... Again, simple man.
Baltimore (+3) @ San Diego
With no LT and a banged up offensive line, I think the Ravens stuff the Chargers run game... all... day... long. Flacco showed us he could do more than just hand off to Ray Rice and the Chargers secondary definitely left the window open for the Raiders last Monday. Fortunately for us, Jamarcus Russell couldn't through a ball through an open door to save his life, let alone a window. If the Chargers play like they did last week, they lose by 30. However, I think it will be a little closer. Final Score: Ravens 49, Chargers 20.





















Nah I'm just kidding, closer than that, but I do think the Ravens win the game.

And there you have my picks for week 2. I am 100% sure that they will all be correct.

Playoff Picks

As the title suggests, I will be covering my predictions for the NFL playoffs in this post. However, there are a few things from week 1 I need to touch on first:

1. I owe a humongous apology to Mark Sanchez. Mark, you looked simply fantastic against the Texans and I'm sorry I didn't believe in you. I am sorry I said that I would ram a *expletive* ball down your *expletive* throat, and if I had the chance, I would give you a big old hug.

2. I never thought I would say the Chargers and Patriots escaped from Oakland and Buffalo, respectively, and actually mean it. But that is exactly what happened last night. Now, I am not so shocked at the Chargers because I have watched them pull stuff like this for years, but the Patriots? WITH Tom Brady?? They really should have lost. The Bills gave the game a way, 100%. I'm surprised Dick Jauron didn't vehemently assure us that the Patriots were, in fact, who he thought they were, and that they had been let off the hook.

3. Last one. Broncos fans, listen up. Don't get used to this whole winning thing. I will not be offering an apology to your defense or Kyle Orton, like I did to Sanchez. First of all, you were playing the Bengals. Secondly, what happened at the end of the game... stuff like that just doesn't happen in the NFL. IT JUST DOESN'T. I have never seen anything like that in all my years of NFL football spectating. If that Bengals defender doesn't tip the ball, it's probably incomplete. Also, the Bengals safety should NOT have come up to lay a hit on Marshall when he already had 2 Bengals and a sideline to contend with. Some higher power was smiling down upon the Broncos that day, but don't get used to it.'

Ok, so that's taken care of. Let's take a look at the 2009 NFL playoffs.

Out of the 6 AFC teams I predicted to make the playoffs, only one team (Baltimore) made me feel good that I had picked them. The Chargers and Patriots almost lost to cellar-dwellers. The Steelers looked terrible on offense and they lost Polamalu for 3-6 weeks. The Titans lost to the Steelers, despite the previous sentence. The Colts narrowly escaped a loss to Jacksonville and their offense looked less than impressive. Nevertheless, I am going to continue with those teams because I chose them and I am not a flip-flopper.

As for the NFC, everything went according to plan. I just would have liked a bigger Green Bay win but that's ok.

Wild Card Weekend:

AFC

Tennessee Titans 16, San Diego Chargers 21
- Chargers offense shows up with 3 TD passes (2 to Gates, 1 to Jackson)
- Titans move the ball well, but stall in SD territory, settling for 3 field goals and 1 TD

Baltimore Ravens 24, Indianapolis Colts 14
- The Ravens D is too much for Manning, returning a pick for a TD
- The Colts D plays well, but gets little support from the offense

NFC

Dallas Cowboys 21, Atlanta Falcons 34
- Matt Ryan picks apart the DAL D, finding Gonzalez and White for 1 TD a piece, Turner adds 2 on the ground.
- The Cowboys can't find a groove on offense until they are well behind, can't come back from deficit

New Orleans Saints 38, Seattle Seahawks 33
- No defense to be found from Seattle as Brees goes for over 350 yards and 3 TDs
- Even less defense from the Saints, but the Seahawks offense just can't score enough

Divisional Round:

AFC
Baltimore Ravens 13, New England Patriots 28
- Brady frustrates Ravens D and puts up a big passing game
- Patriots D steps up and stymies Flacco and the pass offense, run game not enough

San Diego Chargers 24, Pittsburgh Steelers 26
- Better contest from SD than last year, but Pittsburgh D prevails in the end
- Roethlisberger gets great protection and has his way with the SD secondary

NFC
New Orleans Saints 27, Green Bay Packers 34
- Packers offense takes advantage of weak Saints D
- Brees can't come through late, with two 4th quarter interceptions

Atlanta Falcons 31, Philadelphia Eagles 10
- Eagles run into a buzz saw in the form of a blazing hot Falcons offense
- Falcons defense stumps Eagles offense, getting pressure on McNabb all day long

Championship Round:

AFC
Pittsburgh Steelers 13, New England Patriots 17
-Defensive struggle on both sides, but Patriots win on a late Brady TD pass
- With no run game to lean on, Roethlisberger throws over 50 times and gets sacked twice on big third down plays in the 4th quarter

NFC
Atlanta Falcons 20, Green Bay Packers 30
- Packers D comes up big again and forces 3 turnovers
- Rodgers protects the ball and goes up top to Jennings for 2 big TDs

Superbowl XLIV:
New England Patriots 28, Green Bay Packers 31
- Mason Crosby goes "Adam Vinatieri" on the Patriots and wins the game with 44-yard field goal as time expires.
- Rodgers is named MVP with 327 yards passing and 3 TDs
- Brady goes for 297 and 2 TDs, but also has 2 big INTs, one of which is returned for a TD
- Brett Favre puts his Vikings helmet through the flat-screen TV he is watching the game on and refuses to talk to anyone ever again.

And there you have it! Congratulations Packers!

Just so you all know, I will be coming to you every Saturday with my picks for the upcoming week of football, and every Tuesday to make excuses for all the games I got wrong. I will also add some stuff on my fantasy teams (so you can all root me on) and anything else that tickles my fancy in between. You stay classy now.

Just to recap my AFC picks:
1. New England Patriots (13-3)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
3. San Diego Chargers (12-4)
4. Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
5. Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
6. Tennessee Titans (11-5)

The tiebreakers become very complicated when so many teams have similar records, but this is how I see it playing out. The only important tiebreaker I think you need to know is what separates 2 from 3 and 4. I put Pittsburgh at number 2 because I believe they will defeat SD in a regular season game, and that they will have more wins in the AFC than IND (whom they do not play head to head). Savvy?

Good. Now, on to business. Because the first Sunday of the 2009 season is bearing down upon us like Shawne Merriman on... you know what? No, I'm not going to sink that low. The first Sunday is here so I am going to move through my NFC predictions considerably faster than the AFC, which works out because I have much more knowledge on the AFC anyways. So, here we go.

NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers (12-4)
The Green Bay packers are looking awfully good right now, aren't they Brett? Greg Jennings has emerged as a fantastic receiver, and we have seen what Ryan Grant is capable of when healthy. Aaron Rodgers should be even better this season, and that defense is a turnover machine. Not to mention, the Packers seem to have the easiest schedule ever. Just for dramatic effect I'm gonna list the whole thing: Vs CHI, Vs CIN, @ STL, @ MIN, Vs DET, @CLE, VS MIN, @TB, Vs DAL, Vs SF, @DET (aka thanksgiving massacre), Vs BAL, @CHI, @PIT, Vs SEA, @ ARZ. Just let that soak in for a minute... Ok. They can handle the Bears and Lions, and even if they split with the Vikings, that's fine. They can beat everyone in the NFC West, and the crappy half of the AFC North. Oh and by the way Baltimore, you are playing at Lambeau in December... It's gonna be a little chilly. And the cherry on top, they drew Tampa Bay and Dallas as their 2 extra teams. Well thank you very much schedule makers.

2. Minnesota Vikings (10-6)
I was originally thinking that I would have Minnesota winning this division, what with "All Day" Adrian Peterson and that stellar defense. But then I thought to myself, what else is there? Well there's Brett Favre... Brett Favre is not going to be able to play every game, whether it be out of injury or fatigue, it's not going to happen. And there is not much to back him up. Tarvaris Jackson? Sage Rosenfels? Not going to win you a division. And he's not the same Brett Favre he used to be anyways. He had 17 bajillion interceptions last year and apparently he has been hiding a shoulder injury from us for a while. He needs to retire and start golfing or something. Maybe shuffleboard. Anyways, I don't think this team is as good as Green Bay. Look for them in the wild card race.

3. Chicago Bears (8-8)
When I look at the Bears players as individuals, it looks like a very good roster. Matt Forte showed a lot of promise last year and Berrian is a reliable receiver, to say the least. However, there is just something that seems off, something that discourages me from choosing them to win close games, and compete with the elite teams. I can't pinpoint that reason but I feel it has something to do with Cutler. Look, Cuter is a fine talent, but you can't just put together a team based on the best players you can find (sounds crazy right?). I just don't think Cutler fits in with what Chicago wants to do. Chicago has never been a gunslinging team. They run the ball and play defense. All Cutler did last year was throw because the Broncos were going through RBs like tissues and the defense gave up so many points that they found themselves behind often. I don't think the Bears offense is right for a QB like Cutler. And because of that, I think they will have trouble keeping up with Minnesota and Green Bay.

4. Detroit Lions (4-12)
I was perusing Yahoo's fantasy player rankings and came across something rather unsettling. Matthew Stafford is 856th on the overall list. I'm sorry, but that's just overkill. Shame on you Yahoo. I know I have made many jokes at the Lions' expense but they are NOT going to go 0-16 again. Yes the defense still stinks on ice, but the offense has talent. Calvin Johnson is a big time threat at WR and Kevin Jones is an above average RB. I don't think Stafford is going to be fantastic, but I think he'll play well, well enough to chalk up a couple wins this season. Obviously, they will still need a few more building years before they can think about playoff contention.


NFC South
1. Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
I think I'm developing a man crush on Matt Ryan. Don't ask me why because I can't explain it. It's something deeper than words. It may be premature on my part because he has only played one season, but he was absolutely terrific last year. If this continues, I may have to add him to my current man crush list of Tom Brady, Bill Simmons, and Steve Carrell. The Falcons' roster looks awfully strong: Michael Turner, Anthony Gonzalez, Matt Ryan, even Roddy White is coming along nicely. If the defense can hold its ground, they should take the division without much problem.

2. New Orleans Saints (10-6)
The Saints offense is ridiculous. They are going to score a lot of points. But the defense leaves a bad taste in your mouth. You can expect many high scoring affairs involving the Saints, especially against division teams such as Carolina and Atlanta. Drew Brees will be able to win plenty of games for them, but the defense will also lose some. However, the potent offense may be able to propel them to a wild card berth.

3. Carolina Panthers (8-8)
I don't think Jake Delhomme is that good of a QB. I mean no offense, he is a capable starter, but he just doesn't have that unidentifiable quality that Brady, Manning, and Brees do. It's something like an internal fire. And lately, Delhomme seems to be lacking fire wood. The running game is scary, and Steve Smith is definitely a threat, but the defense is no more than average and they always seem to be riddled with injuries. I expect them to fall off a bit from last season, and miss the playoffs by a few games.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10)
I feel bad putting the Buccaneers down here in the cellar because I think they deserve a good season. They have zero stability at the QB position and Cadillac Williams has never really lived up to the hype he created for himself. Antonio Bryant is the only offensive player worthy of mention and although the defense is still tough, I don't see a lot of success for the Bucs this year.


NFC East

1. Philadelphia Eagles (11-4-1)
That tie is not a joke right there. I'm predicting a 23-23 tie against the Giants. Who else has the balls to call that? If they don't know the NFL rules about what happens at the end of overtime... Anyways, people might think I'm crazy to pick the Eagles to win this division, but I think McNabb is going to have a nice comeback season. Westbrook is looking very good at the RB position, and despite how I may feel about him as a person, Michael Vick can provide some big play ability to this offense. I think if they put him in some sort of Wildcat or option package with Westbrook, they can drive defenses crazy.

2. Dallas Cowboys (10-6)
The Cowboys look like a good team on paper. Tony Romo can be a great QB when he wants to be, so basically when he's not dating Jessica Simpson, and they have a litany of talented RBs in the backfield. Marion Barber can run up the middle and bruise people, while Felix Jones is looking to get more playing time for outside rushes and possibly screen plays. But just like the Bears, it seems like something is just off in Dallas. Despite working their way to a "win and you're in" situation in week 17 last year, they got destroyed by Philadelphia and watched the playoffs from home. However, all that talent may fortify into a wild card run.

3. New York Giants (8-7-1)
I'm going to make this one short and sweet because there a very few things I have to say about the Giants. I can't see them keeping up with the better offenses in the league. Eli Manning has proved he can perform but his offense is falling apart around him. Plaxico Burress is gone and they now possess absolutely no downfied threat. That defensive line is going to need to come up big, perhaps bigger than they did even in 2007, to carry this team to the playoffs.

4. Washington Redskins (7-9)
The Redskins are the NFC version of the Jaguars with perhaps a little bit more talent. Clinton Portis is a great RB and Santana Moss is still a reliable option. However, they have many questions at the QB spot. I think Jason Campbell is ok, but I don't think he can lead the Skins to the playoffs, especially not with the competition in the NFC East. However, I wouldn't be surprised if the Redskins surprise us (wait...) and they pull off some upsets against better teams. I just don't see enough for a playoff run.

NFC West

1. Seattle Seahawks (10-6)
With Matt Hasselbeck back healthy, the Seahawks shouldn't have any problem recapturing the NFC West crown from the Cardinals. Not to mention, the addition of T.J. Houshmandzadeh (that IS the correct spelling) has greatly opened up the pass attack. As long as the Seahawks hold their own against the teams they should beat (mainly their 6 division games) they should be fine.

2. Arizona Cardinals (8-8)
Oh I know that everyone wants me to say the Cardinals are going to win the NFC West again, but I'm not going to. Sorry. In fact, they aren't even going to make the playoffs. Kurt Warner is 63 and there is no way he makes it the whole season, I would be surprised to see him in week 10 actually, and I don't think Leinart has enough experience to be honest. However, even if Warner does go down, that receiving corps is soooo good, that I will allow them 8 wins this year. But the defense still has many holes, so no more than 8.

3. San Francisco 49ers (7-9)
Now if you will all recall, I posted a few months back that I thought the 49ers had a chance to take this weak division. I have changed my mind. They have talent in the forms of Frank Gore, Patrick Willis, Isaac Bruce (despite his age), and TE/Beast Vernon Davis, but they have not been able to land a decent QB in years. Alex Smith was a complete failure, and O'sullivan was a bigger tragedy than the potato famine of 1845. Shaun Hill is simply not going to get the job done this year. However, I think QB is the only real glaring problem. If they could straighten that situation out, they would have a very good chance of competing.

4. St. Louis Rams (4-12)
The wheels have fallen off the "Rammobile", and the team has become utterly incompetent. Steven Jackson is a highly talented RB and we used to think Bulger was just as great as Warner before him. But the offense has absolutely no chemistry and the defense has absolutely no talent... or chemistry (which is a terrible combination). The two main components of "The Greatest Show on Turf" have departed and unless they plan on bringing Marshall Faulk out of retirement, the Rams have very little hope this season.

So to wrap it all up, here is the NFC playoff picture I have painted for you:
1. Green Bay Packers (12-4)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (11-4-1)
3. Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
4. Seattle Seahawks (10-6)
5. New Orleans Saints (10-6)
6. Dallas Cowboys (10-6)

My playoff predictions, including Superbowl match up and champion, will be up in the next few days. Thanks for reading.

Blake's Picks Continued

I would just like to point out that Edward has Matt Schaub as his fantasy QB and that is why the Texans have the "best offense in the league". By the way, Matt Schaub is BARELY a top ten QB, Steve Slaton has not played enough to deserve the title of top ten RB, and if you really think about it, "Top Ten" really means they are in the top 1/3 of the league. And just becasue you are better than 66% of the competition doesn't make you the best offense ever. That's all I'm gonna say about that. Anyways, I am going to continue my NFL guesswork by rounding out the AFC. Here we go.

AFC East
This division was not nearly as hard to determine as the previous two. With the return of Tom Brady, the Patriots have leapt back up to the top of the heap, and if he is healthy, they run away with the division. The Dolphins snuck past everyone and took the division last year, but even without Brady, the Patriots were the better team.

1. New England Patriots
Predicted Finish: 13-3
The Patriots do not face a difficult schedule this season. Their division is not bad, but they are on a higher level than everyone else. The only challenging games I see on their schedule are Baltimore, Tennessee, and Indianapolis. And even if they lose all of those, they would still finish with the league's best record at 13-3. Wes Welker and Randy Moss lead a potent pass offense and they always seem to get it done on the ground even though Maroney has yet to show us he is a breakout player. Even though the defense does not contain numerous big name stars, the Patriots always seem to come together as a team and put in a top 5 defensive effort.
Impact Player: Tom Brady
Well duh. I mean come on, Tom Brady is, in my opinion, the best quarterback in the league. And with all those rings already, he's probably locked up a spot in the greatest QBs of all time. Look at it this way: The Patriots were 11-5 last year with Matt Cassell at the helm. Imagine how much better they will be with Brady leading that same group. Unless his leg goes out again, he should go for another 40 TDs this year.
Chances of Winning Division: Fantastic
Like I said, the Patriots shouldn't encounter much opposition from their division. They are not going to get blown out by 5 TDs against the wildcat formation seeing as every offensive coordinator has come up with one and every defensive coordinator has devoted hours upon hours to setting up defensive packages against it. If Brady plays all 16 games, the Patriots win the AFC East. Period.

2. Miami Dolphins
Predicted Finish: 8-8
It looks to me like the Dolphins face a very difficult schedule. They face New England twice. They also have to play AT San Diego, AT Atlanta, and AT Tennessee, not to mention home games against Pittsburgh and Indianapolis. I don't think they will win more than 1 or 2 of all the games listed above, so I think they would be lucky to come out at .500. It's too bad that a team who provided such a fun Cinderella story last year is gonna get pounded worse than Tila Tequila and Rhianna at a belt convention. Oh look at me, I'm so cool because I make fun of women who have been domestically abused. Real classy, Edward.
Impact Player: Ronnie Brown
I don't believe in Chad Pennington. I think he had what I like to call a "One-hit wonder season" last year. I'm afraid he is going to drop off more than the Baja Men (remember them? Those genius lyricists who came up with "Who Let the Dogs Out?", a song consisting of 5 words and a funky Jamaican beat). Anyways, Ronnie Brown is gonna have to do most of the work, seeing as Ricky Williams will probably be too busy inhaling bongloads to help out. And don't think this means Wildcat all day long, oh no. Brown needs to do some more old fashioned running, between the tackles, to carry this team.
Chances of Winning Division: What are the chances of Tom Brady re-injuring his leg? I'll put it about even with that.
Let's be frank. The Dolphins are terribly weak when it comes to passing the ball. Ted Ginn Jr. is NOT a number 1 WR. I'm sorry he's just not. If anything, he's a young Wes Welker, but that's as far as I'm willing to go. And after Ginn Jr., we have guys like Davone Bess (whom I had not heard of until midway through last season) and Brian Hartline (whom I have NEVER heard of). And their defense is fantastically average. Anyone who expects a repeat champion in the division is dillusional.

3. New York Jets
Predicted Finish: 6-10
The Jets are going to lose their first 4 games. Mark Sanchez is going to get booed more than Chris Brown at a convention for womens' rights. They then have a chance to win the next four against Miami, Buffalo, Oakland, and Miami again. And they could head into their 9 week bye with a 4-4 record and a slightly more optimistic outlook. However, they are going to get wrecked at the end of the season. Sanchez's rookie-ness is going to shine through and the pressure from all the fans is going to get to him.
Impact Player: Mark Sanchez
I know I just berated him with criticism, but the Jets put all of their eggs in the Sanchez basket when they drafed him. I, along with this relatively savvy man named Pete Carroll, don't think he's ready, especially for New York. He IS the New York Jets this season and if he can't produce, the entire state is going to throw a fit.
Chances of Winning Division: Unmistakingly Disappointing
New York Jets fans may be the most proud people on the planet. They think they are going to be the best all the time, every time. And they have a cocky attitude about it. I am guessing we have Joe Namath to thank for this. The point is, the fans will quickly realize that they do not have a chance this year, nor any year in which Brady is playing in New England. A wide-spread depression is going to run through the state like wildfire when Sanchez throws his 6th pick in week 3 and gets thrown to the ground by Kyle Vanden Bosch. Just watch...

4. Buffalo Bills
Predicted Finish: 4-12
Nobody cirlces the wagons like the Buffalo Bills. Good for them. Now maybe they should focus on playing football. With no Marshawn Lynch, who happens to be the second best player on the team, for the first 3 games, the Bills will, more likely than not, start 0-3. Even after that, they play the highly talented AFC South and and the offensively impressive NFC South. Their defense is terrible and Trent Edwards is just... not very good. Terrell Owens, Lee Evans, and Marshawn Lynch create a nice little trio but there is absolutely no one else on that team worthy of mention.
Impact Player: Terrell Owens
Terrell Owens is lucky that Chad Ochocinco also plays in the NFL. Because anyone standing next to Chad Ochocinco looks like a prince. Or anyone standing next to Prince Fielder, for that matter. Anyways, even though T.O. sometimes pushes the envelope, he brings a lot of talent to the talentless wasteland known as Bufallo. I think he is the reason they win 4 games. He is a gamechanger in every sense of the word. But he alone is not enough to lift the Bills into contention.
Chances of Winning Division:
If the Bufallo Bills win the AFC West, I will eat, not only my hat, but my left shoe and my favorite pair of jeans as well.


AFC West
No contest. None whatsoever.

1. San Diego Chargers
Predicted Finish: 12-4
I am not being biased here, the San Diego Chargers HAVE to win this division. I'm not sure if there has ever been a division like this. Meaning that EVERYONE knows who is going to win, and we are all so certain that it's not even funny to pick anyone else to win it. I don't even know where to start, this team is so stacked. Rivers, LT, Gates, Vincent Jackson, Merriman. And that just scratches the surface. This team is LOADED and the rest of the division is so bad, I feel dirty letting one of them have second place. I feel like they should all just get last...
Impact Player: Darren Sproles
It's not as though the Chargers are going to come anywhere near losing,unless they all come down with swine flu, but it will be interesting to see the running back tandem of LT and Sproles. As much as I hate to admit it, LT is getting old, and if we push him too hard, he's gonna get hurt again. I'm not saying that he and Sproles should split carries 50-50, but Sproles should be more involved this season.
Chances of Winning Division: Disgustingly Good
I can't even think of anything witty to say here... It's already over. Start printing "San Diego Chargers AFC West Division Champions" T-shirts.

2. Kansas City Chiefs
Predicted Finish: 7-9
The only reason the Chiefs will be anywhere close to .500 is beacuse they, like the Chargers get to play the AFC West. Due to the addition of Matt Cassell at QB, who is really better than we have all been giving him credit for, they are just a smidge better than the Raiders and Broncos (and yes, "smidge" is the right word for this situation). They also play Cincinnati, Cleveland, Bufallo, Jacksonville, and Washington, all games in which they can compete. No one really knows how Larry Johnson is going to perform, and the defense is, once again, dreadful.
Impact Player: Matt Cassell
Who knew that the Patriots were hiding an undiscovered gem on the bench all these years? Well, Bill Belichick probably did, but did anyone else? I know it was just one season but he was fantastic coming in as a backup. If it weren't for the Dolphins' (2008 Team of Destiny) timely unveiling of the Wildcat formation, he would have led the Patriots to the playoffs. Although they will not be close to catching the Chargers, I could see Cassell landing some punches against the San Diego secondary. Unfortunately. they unloaded Hall of Fame tight end, Tony Gonzalez, greatly restraining Cassell's otions.
Chances of Winning Division: Horrible
Like the New Radicals, they are in need of a miracle.

3. Oakland Raiders (Blake's Surprise Pick of the Century!!)
Predicted Finish: 5-11
I am being so nice to the Oakland Raiders, and I don't even like the Oakland Raiders! I am giving them 5 whole wins this year, just because I respect Darren McFadden. I say they will have a chance of beating the Broncos (2), Bengals, Browns, Chiefs (1 out of 2), and maybe an upset against Washington or Houston. I decided to slide the Raiders ahead of the Broncos because they were dumb enough to unload their FRANCHISE QB because he and new owner Josh McDaniels had a little spat. Idiotic.
Impact Player: Darren McFadden
I sincerley believe that Darren McFadden is going to be a real good player in the NFL. I would liken him to Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman. A very bright talent on a horrible team. He may be able to win a few games for the Raiders all by himself. Jamarcus Russell just isn't translating well to the pros. He has a great arm but his performance has been less than stellar. And the defense is... ok, but not great. And a defense really can't win all by themselves. The offense eventually does HAVE to score, no matter how good the defense is.
Chances of Winning Division: None. Zero. Zilch. Goose egg.
I think this one is self-explanatory.

4. Denver Broncos
Predicted Finish: 4-12
The Denver Broncos are just terrible. They were all lined up for a playoff run last year, when they absolutely fell apart, losing their last 4 games, including a loss to lowly Buffalo and a difinitive trouncing by the Chargers. And instead of going out and finding the missing piece, they ship off their best player (Jay Cutler), which in turn, upsets their second best player (Brandon Marshall). So Cutler is in Chicago and they get... Kyle Orton in return??? Who the hell authorized this trade?? And how much cocaine were they on??? Also, Brandon Marshall doesn't want to be there anymore and for the life of me, I can't remember who their starting RB is (if I ever knew, that is).
Impact Player: Champ Bailey
This is the one and only defensive guy I have as an Impact Player. Why? Because the Broncos defense was... was... I can't even find the right word to explain how bad they were last season. Downright abysmal. And I don't think that's even strong enough. The offense is in shambles and Champ is going to have to step up if they want any chance at competing. They have talent on the defensive side (Champ is probably the best corner in the league) but they have to put it all together. Still, they have no chance at catching San Diego.
Chances of Winning Division: Worse than the Detroit Lions winning the Superbowl.
I know it sounds funny, but that is NOT a joke. That is 100% serious.

Coming Soon: NFC

Edward's Predictions

First off, I apologize for the confusing format, but I guess Blake and I will be trading off our views of divisions up until this all important first week. Not sure if I can commit to that, seeing as this little thing called college might get in my way, but I'll do my best.

AFC North -
I'll start by saying that I do not like the Pittsburgh Steelers to repeat as champions this year. In fact, I'd be surprised if they make it past the divisional round of the playoffs. There are too many good teams in the AFC (San Diego, New England, Indianapolis, Baltimore, and Tennessee) for there to be continuity in the Champions. Besides that, the Steelers have a ridiculous amount of flaws for a defending champion. Most importantly, their offensive line cannot run block. Despite "Fast Willie's" best efforts, he hasn't had a crack, let alone a hole to run through over the past two seasons. This is best shown by their league worst 3rd or 4th and 1 conversion percentage, 52%. Without a running game, that means Big Ben will be dropping back for between 30-45 passes a game. With his incredible ability (disability?) to hold on to the ball for an unbelievably long time, he is bound to be sacked a lot. In fact, he was sacked 130+ times in the past 3 seasons. Regardless of how durable he is, he will get hurt this season. Without Ben, I don't see much to fear from this offense. Yes, Santonio Holmes is emerging as a legitimate top wide receiver, but I do not have confidence in Charlie Batch to "manage" Pitt's way to many victories. Also, I doubt that the defense can maintain such a high level back-to-back seasons, as all the injuries that they avoided last year will hurt them this year. Thus, I see an 11-5 season out of the defending champs, a wild card spot, and an early playoff exit in the wild card round.

Baltimore Ravens - I like them to win the division. One factor that Blake fails to count is the easier schedule that a team gets from being 2nd in the division relative to first. Instead of San Diego, Baltimore gets Denver. The difference in a game like that will make all the difference. I expect Joe Flacco to make substantial improvements this year, especially as he has his trusty #1, Derrick Mason back for another season. The three-headed fantasy owner monster of RBs that we saw last year will likely not continue. All the preseason hype has gone into Ray Rice, but I have my doubts about his ability to hold up to a season of hits. My money is on Le'Ron McClain to assert himself as a bonafide touchdown vulture and all-around wrecking ball. If Ed Reed and the rest of the defense plays anywhere near the level they played during last year's playoffs, many teams will have serious difficulty scoring. My main concern about the Ravens is their defense's age, especially as Ray Lewis is 34 years old this year. Not many LBs can continue at such a high level for long. I expect a 13-3 record out of Baltimore this year and a divisional round exit.

After those two powers, I see a rather substantial drop-off in the division. I see no way that either Cincinnati or Cleveland can compete with many teams in the NFL, let alone their division's powerhouses. I think that Cincy will finish with a 4-12 record. Although they have a healthy Carson Palmer, a refocused Chad "Eight-Five", and a motivated Chris Henry, they have little else on their team. Their offensive line last year was abysmal and probably responsible for Palmer's frequent injuries, and I don't see any moves to improve that unit. They lost 1st round pick Andre "Man Boobs" Smith to holdout/fractured foot, without protection, I think a repeat of last year's injury is likely. Cedric Benson sucks and shouldn't have a job in the NFL. The defense is worse and anchored by "stars" like Tank Johnson and Leon Hall. Not exactly Baltimore or Pittsburgh quality. I do however expect Rey Maualuga and Keith Rivers to have very good seasons.

Cleveland will finish 3-13 and switch QBs approximately 45 times. This is likely because Braylon Edwards will single-handedly drive them crazy. Perhaps "single-handedly" is the wrong phrase, but I'll leave it for irony's sake. Jamal Lewis is aging faster than the Vikings fans who realize that they have killed their Super Bowl hopes by hiring a QB who will maybe last 10 games. No RB behind Lewis has serious potential and the offensive line has looked lackluster. The defense is nothing special and will likely be on the field for substantial periods of time as the offense has no resemblance of a unit capable of maintaining possession. In the end, the Dawg Pound is just going to pounded worse than Tila Nguyen (I refuse to call a person Tequila) and Rihanna, combined. That's right, I just went there.

On to the AFC South, which I think is going to be one of the most exciting divisional races in years. I see this as a three horse race with all having an equal chance of prevailing. The results of divisional games will likely decide the ultimate winner. I'll start off with the defending divisional champions, the Tennessee Titans. The Titans will have a slight drop off after last year's dominating performance. The loss of an impact defensive player like Albert Haynesworth will likely cost at least 2 wins. Despite Big Albert's departure, Tennessee's defense remains one of the league's top units. They have impact players at every level and will wreak havoc against all but the best offenses. Another reason I am down on the Titans, is I doubt that Kerry Collins has another exceptional season in him. We often see with elderly quarterbacks that either injuries or just all-around fatigue catch up to them eventually. Fortunately, to counter that expected drop off, electric running back Chris Johnson will take a larger load this year. His mind-numbing speed and beautiful moves will make him a top-5 running back this year and will keep Tennessee in many games, often giving them oppurtunities against teams that they wouldn't expect to beat. All in all, I see Tennessee finishing the season 10-6 and missing the playoffs on a tiebreaker for the wildcard.

Last season's #2, the Indianapolis Colts, come in with more questions than they have had in years. With the loss of wiry veteran Coach Dungy and the release of an all-time great wide-receiver, Marvin Harrison, the Colts have several large holes. That's not to say that they aren't capable of filling them. Jim Caldwell is an extremely experienced coordinator and will be a more than adequate replacement for Dungy, but the big help that he has is Assistant Coach/Quarterback Peyton Manning. Manning's incredible intelligence will hold the offense to its expected high standard. My only concern with the offense is a lack of a solid number three wide receiver. Peyton has always had capable third option, reaching back to the days of Brandon Stokely, to last year with Anthony Gonzalez. With Gonzalez moving to a starting position, that role will be left to unproven talents Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie. The player who will elevate Indy from playoff quality to Super Bowl contenders is Bob Sanders. When he is on the field, the run defense is top notch, however; without him, they are near incompetent. Sanders' frequent injuries have hamstrung the Colts chances. He will decide their fate in the postseason. All in all, Manning will hold the team together and lead them to a hard-fought 12-4 record and a divisional championship. They will lose in the divisional round again this year against an all too familiar opponent (if you catch my drift).

The Houston Texans are poised for their breakout season. After years of mediocrity, the critical mass of high first round picks will finally cause them to sneak into the playoffs. First off, they have what I consider to be the best offense in the league. Matt Schaub, Steve Slaton, Owen Daniels and Andre Johnson are all top-10 at their position. Kevin Walter is a more than servicable third option. The offense's only concern is durability. Schaub's history has been riddled with freak injuries, most of which were late cheap shots that were later fined. This preseason Schaub rolled his ankle, but all reports suggest that he will be fine. Slaton is a small back, but has put on more weight to be able to handle a year-long workload. Expect the Texans to turn over some of Slaton's duties to capable backup Chris Brown, who unfortunately is not an amazing singer. Their defense is loaded with talent as Brian Cushing is added to a dominant front seven that includes Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans, and my breakout player of the year, Amobi Okoye. The only question mark that I see on the defense is the secondary. When you are relying on Dunta Robinson, Fred Bennet, Dominique Barber, and Eugene Wilson as your starting four, you are going to give up a lot of passing yards. If the front seven can get pressure on the quarterback, the Texans will be able to mask that lone flaw and emerge as a contender in the conference. Houston will finish with a 10-6 record and make it to the playoffs for the first time in their brief history. Unfortunately, their inexperience will lead them to a wild-card round exit.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are falling apart. Last season was downright brutal as the former anchors of the defense, Marcus Stroud and John Henderson were separated in one of the most idiotic trades of the decade (really only beaten by any trade involving a team from the Bay Area and the Patriots (scary thing is I'm referring to two teams, both the Raider's Randy Moss fiasco and the 49ers swap of the 30th pick for a soon to be top 10 pick and Jerod Mayo) Imagine Jerod Mayo and Patrick Willis on the same team .. don't worry I'll pause while you consider the immense ramifications of this .. ok we're good). Anyways, the Jaguars quit on Head Coach Jack Del Rio last season and I am amazed that Del Rio has been given a second chance. Unfortunately for him, I don't see anything changing and this team will fall apart in a highly competitive division. Maurice Jones-Drew will be the only reason to watch this team. David Garrard is competent, but not much more and an old Torry Holt will help, but not enough. Jacksonville is on the fast track to a top-10 pick again with a 5-11 record.

As a quick little side note, I think that I set the record for the longest side note ever in that last paragraph. Thanks, I appreciate the support. I also promise that I won't make any more Chris Brown jokes next time, I apologize. Oh and I'm gonna go ahead and make another bold prediction, Duke 28, Army 27.

I'm back, football's back, Steelers going back-to-back?

I have been away from my blog for a spell. I don't think anyone can blame me seeing as all I had to work with was the Padres, whom I have NOT been keeping up with, incidentally. I'm proud to say I've been Friar free for nearly 2 months. Anyways, I have returned because of one thing and one thing only: NFL football.

It is, undoubtedly, the greatest thing on the face of the earth (besides Megan Fox) and it begins TONIGHT. In celebration of the 2009 season, I will be laying out the entire NFL for you in my next few posts (today will be the AFC North and South because those are the divisions represented in tonight's opening game). I'll cover all 31 NFL teams, and I'll throw in a bit about the Detroit Lions, too. I will go division by division and walk you through each squad, touching on impact players and giving you my two cents worth about their chances. Let's get started, shall we?


AFC North:
I see this division as a two-horse race that will remain extremely close right down to the wire. But I believe Pittsburgh will, once again, edge out Baltimore. The Bengals and Browns will not have enough to compete.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers
Predicted Finish: (12-4)
There aren't many teams in the league that are better than the Pittsburgh Steelers. It's just a fact. They don't face a difficult schedule, seeing as they get Cincinnati and Cleveland two times each, as well as the floundering AFC West for another 4 games. That 12-4 record I predicted even allows room for some offensive stagnation that may occur. But I think Big Ben can produce enough, coupled with that monstrous defense, to win the division again.
Impact Player: Willie Parker
We know the defense is fantastic. We have seen enough of Roethlisberger to know that he can get the job done. Hines Ward is still going strong and Santonio Holmes is emerging as a go-to guy down the field. The only thing I see as unsure about the 09 Steelers is Willie Parker. Parker will be turning 29 this season and it seems as though he is not quite as fast as he used to be. Due to injuries, he only managed 791 yards and 5 TDs in 2008. The Steelers have always been a heavily run-oriented team, and they will need more out of Parker this season. If he cannot produce, the torch is passed to Rashard Mendenhall, who possesses only 19 carries of NFL experience. Without Parker, the Steelers may find themselves turning more to the pass than ever before, and that is not the type of game Pittsburgh wants to play.
Chances of Winning Division: Very Good
Unless they are unable to take either of their games against Baltimore, they should take first place once again. The only way they don't win is if they drop both games to Baltimore or lose to a team or two who they should beat handily (Oakland, Cleveland, etc.), and I really can't see either of those happening.

2. Baltimore Ravens (Wild Card)
Predicted Finish (11-5)
Despite being in the same division as the Steelers, the Ravens schedule looks considerably more difficult. Yes they have Cincy (2), Cleveland (2), and the AFC West for 8 games, but they drew New England and Indy as the two extra teams on their schedule (meaning that they don't play the AFC East or South, just those 2 teams). That's just terrible luck right there. Just like the Steelers, the Ravens may face offensive struggles, what with their young starting QB and RB. And of course, they have to take on the world champions twice, so I have them coming in second with 11 wins, and a very good shot at a wild card.
Impact Player: Joe Flacco
If this team wants to contend, it cannot be the defense's team, if you catch my drift. For the past decade or so, the Ravens have put most of their chances in the hands of their defense. They need more offense to keep up with Pittsburgh. This needs to be Flacco's team and he needs to command respect from NFL defenses. If Flacco can't get the passing game going, the run game will stall too, and the defense will not be able to score enough for them. I won't say Flacco will have a sophomore slump, but I don't see him playing well enough to beat the Steelers.
Chances of Winning Division: Decent at Best
The Ravens are a very good, hard-working team. They will have success this year, due mainly to their defense. However, they would need, for all intents and purposes, to go 6-0 in the division to take the crown. I just don't feel like they are on the same level as the Steelers. They would need a little more offensive firepower to overcome the Black and Gold defense. Look for the Ravens as a solid Wild Card team.

3. Cincinnati Bengals
Predicted Finish: (7-9)
The only reason I didn't put the Bengals in last is pure offensive talent. A few years ago, we saw fireworks as a healthy Palmer fired the ball all over the place. Chad... *sigh* Ochocinco and T.J. Houshmandzadeh were arguably the best WR tandem in football. Then lightning struck as Palmer went down in the playoffs. They haven't been the same since. Housh has moved on to Seattle, no doubt having run out of tolerance for Chad's tomfoolery. And the defense, which was decent at best, has fallen to pieces. But now, Palmer is back, and even though he appears idiotic, and possesses only a rudimentary knowledge of the Spanish language (Ochocinco = eight five, not eighty-five), Chad is still a good wideout.
Impact Player: Carson Palmer
We have seen what happens to this team when Palmer is out. Utter chaos. People running around without a clue as to what they are doing. Like the WNBA. The entire fate of the team rests on Palmer's shoulder. The defense is not going to win any games for them, and I just checked with my Magic 8 Ball as to the competence of the running game. It told me the outlook is bleak.
Chances of Winning Division: Terrible
The Bengals will improve their performance this year, simply with the reinstatement of Carson Palmer. If he stays healthy, I'll give them a 2% chance to shock the world and take down Pittsburgh. Without him, the chances are less than 0%, can I do a negative percentage? Is that possible?

4. Cleveland Browns
Predicted Finish: (6-10)
In previous Off-seasons, people have called the Browns the "sexy pick" in the AFC North. What the hell is that supposed to mean? I can't find anything remotely sexy about the Cleveland Browns (unless you count the cheerleaders, and even they have a somewhat defeated air about them). Jamal Lewis is approaching the end of his career and the defense is simply dreadful. Quinn may be able to find some success throwing to Braylon Edwards, but besides that, the offense is very limited.
Impact Player: Brady Quinn
We just found out, despite Eric Mangini's best efforts, that Brady Quinn will be starting at quarterback for the Browns. I have nothing against Quinn, he seems like a very charming young man. But is he ready? I went back to my Magic 8 Ball and asked. It told me to ask again later... which I am going to take as a "no". Nevertheless, the Browns are seriously lacking in team leadership and maybe Brady Quinn can be that leader they so desperately need (this year, however, I would just let him get his feet underneath him before piling on that kind of pressure. Perhaps in the near future).
Chances of Winning Division: Little to None
The Browns are not going to win the AFC North


AFC South
This division is giving me some grief. I was highly impressed by the Titans last year, but I do not see another 13-3 season in them. Also, I believe greatly in the power of Peyton. Houston will be competetive, but I think they just need one more year to really hit their stride. Jacksonville continues its downward spiral with another last-place finish.

1. Indianapolis Colts
Predicted Finish: (12-4)
I feel like the Colts have the talent and ability to win every division game (perhaps with the exception of the @TEN game). They get to beat up on the weak NFC North, and they should beat 3 out of the 4 AFC East teams (New England being the challenge). The offense should be back on track, and the defense, lead by Dwight Freeney, should create enough pressure to knock off an offensively weak Tennessee team.
Impact Player: Joseph Addai
The Joseph Addai situation is not unlike that of Willie Parker. Although not quite as far into his career as Parker, Addai seemed to slow considerably last year. It was clear to me that the Colts just didn't have the confidence last year. Their roster has not changed noticeably over the past few years and yet, they seemed like a different team than we are used to seeing with horseshoes on their heads. Peyton Manning is a top class quarterback and he has dangerous weapons in both Reggie Wayne and an emerging Anthony Gonzalez. The Colts will need a stable running game to take on a smash mouth Tennessee defense.
Chances of Winning Division: Pretty Good
If the Colts can take one game from the Titans, they should be able to hold them off altogether. I don't see them having problems with the Texans or Jaguars, both of whom match up better against Tennessee. They also have a key match up with New England, which could determine the direction of their season. That game is shaping up to be one of those classic NE-IND, Brady-Manning games. I would give the slight edge to the Pats in that game, but to the Colts in the division.

2. Tennessee Titans (Wild Card)
Predicted Finish: (11-5)
I'm not saying that last year was a fluke, but the Titans won't go 13-3 again in 2009. They shot out of the gate and ran all over the opposition. However, their schedule wasn't easy like Sunday morning... It was easier. Teams will be better prepared for the Smash and Dash run attack. Also, Albert Haynesworth, the best defensive player in the division, if not the league, is gone. So the front 7 will be a little less scary this time around. The defense is still top 5, but the offense will not experience such success on the ground and Collins will be forced to throw more, leading to more pressure on the shoulders of a weak receiving core.
Impact Player: Justin Gage
Justin Gage is really the closest thing to a number 1 receiver on the Titans roster. They acquired Nate Washington to aid a lackluster air attack, but he is not much of a deep threat. Like I said, the Titans will most likely be forced to throw more often than not, and Gage will need to step up in order for the Titans to make a run at the Colts. I am not convinced that Gage has the ability to be a real number one, but he's really all they've got.
Chances of Winning Division: Not Too Shabby
It's not as though the Colts are so far ahead that the Titans have no chance at catching them no matter what they do. It's quite the opposite actually. The Titans have young talent all over the field (with the exception of 84-year-old Kerry Collins at QB) and they can set a precedent of dominance if they can put another good season together. However, they will need a lot of offense to overtake the Colts this season. Collins, Gage, and Johnson will all have to contribute largely. And they will need to take care of business in the division (especially the 2 games against Indianapolis). This race will be close, but I'm giving the slight edge to the Colts right now.

3. Houston Texans
Predicted Finish: (9-7)
The 2009 Houston Texans look like a very good team to me. Matt Schaub showed us he has the ability to be a winning QB in the league. Andre Johnson is a top 3 WR, perhaps behind only Larry Fitzgerald, and Steve Slaton had a great rookie season, leading all rookies in rushing yards. Mario Williams anchors a stable defense (and I believe its about time for those who berated the Texans for passing on Reggie Bush to shut their mouths). The Texans can compete with the Titans, but I feel the Colts are just a bit out of their reach.
Impact Player: Steve Slaton
No one is a bigger Steve Slaton fan than myself. Is it because I had him in my fantasy league last year? Not really. Is it because I have him in my fantasy league again this year? Probably. Anyways, Steve Slaton is going to be an integral part of the Texans offense. We know Schaub can throw and Andre Johnson can catch. But can Steve Slaton repeat his awesome rookie performance? I certainly hope so. He will need a monster year to lead that offense ahead of Indy and Tennessee.
Chances of Winning Division: Close, But No Cigar
I could write for hours about the trio of good teams in this division, and the possible scenarios of the final standings. So let me be quick and to the point about the Texans. If the Texans won the division, I would be surprised, but not shocked.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars
Predicted Finish: (7-9)
I always think of the Jaguars as a team that is always kinda... just there. They are not terrible, they are not fantastic. The only flashy player they have is Maurice Jones-Drew at the RB position. They never have much in the way of a pass offense, although they did add Torry Holt this year. However, the Jaguars are not on the same level as the rest of this tough division. They will be able to compete against most teams, but I foresee them losing a handful of close games., simply because of a lack of big playmakers. Also, the defense is nothing special. The Jaguars just aren't special, let's face it.
Impact Player: Maurice Jones-Drew
We know what David Garrard is. He is someone who manages the game at QB. He doesn't take a lot of risks, but on the other hand, he throws very few interceptions. He reminds me of Brad Johnson of Tampa Bay Buccaneers fame, who rode his way to a Superbowl victory on the tailcoats of a fantastic defense. The only difference is that Garrard doesn't have a fantastic defense to rely on. Most of the workload is going to land on Maurice Jones-Drew, a great talent stuffed into a very small package. He has certainly shown that he has the ability to change games, but this year he is really alone at RB. Fred Taylor, future Hall of Famer, is gone and I don't even know who their backup RB is.
Chances of Winning Division: Saddening
If the Jaguars won the division, I would be shocked.


Coming Soon: AFC East and West