Just to recap my AFC picks:
1. New England Patriots (13-3)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
3. San Diego Chargers (12-4)
4. Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
5. Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
6. Tennessee Titans (11-5)
The tiebreakers become very complicated when so many teams have similar records, but this is how I see it playing out. The only important tiebreaker I think you need to know is what separates 2 from 3 and 4. I put Pittsburgh at number 2 because I believe they will defeat SD in a regular season game, and that they will have more wins in the AFC than IND (whom they do not play head to head). Savvy?
Good. Now, on to business. Because the first Sunday of the 2009 season is bearing down upon us like Shawne Merriman on... you know what? No, I'm not going to sink that low. The first Sunday is here so I am going to move through my NFC predictions considerably faster than the AFC, which works out because I have much more knowledge on the AFC anyways. So, here we go.
NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers (12-4)
The Green Bay packers are looking awfully good right now, aren't they Brett? Greg Jennings has emerged as a fantastic receiver, and we have seen what Ryan Grant is capable of when healthy. Aaron Rodgers should be even better this season, and that defense is a turnover machine. Not to mention, the Packers seem to have the easiest schedule ever. Just for dramatic effect I'm gonna list the whole thing: Vs CHI, Vs CIN, @ STL, @ MIN, Vs DET, @CLE, VS MIN, @TB, Vs DAL, Vs SF, @DET (aka thanksgiving massacre), Vs BAL, @CHI, @PIT, Vs SEA, @ ARZ. Just let that soak in for a minute... Ok. They can handle the Bears and Lions, and even if they split with the Vikings, that's fine. They can beat everyone in the NFC West, and the crappy half of the AFC North. Oh and by the way Baltimore, you are playing at Lambeau in December... It's gonna be a little chilly. And the cherry on top, they drew Tampa Bay and Dallas as their 2 extra teams. Well thank you very much schedule makers.
2. Minnesota Vikings (10-6)
I was originally thinking that I would have Minnesota winning this division, what with "All Day" Adrian Peterson and that stellar defense. But then I thought to myself, what else is there? Well there's Brett Favre... Brett Favre is not going to be able to play every game, whether it be out of injury or fatigue, it's not going to happen. And there is not much to back him up. Tarvaris Jackson? Sage Rosenfels? Not going to win you a division. And he's not the same Brett Favre he used to be anyways. He had 17 bajillion interceptions last year and apparently he has been hiding a shoulder injury from us for a while. He needs to retire and start golfing or something. Maybe shuffleboard. Anyways, I don't think this team is as good as Green Bay. Look for them in the wild card race.
3. Chicago Bears (8-8)
When I look at the Bears players as individuals, it looks like a very good roster. Matt Forte showed a lot of promise last year and Berrian is a reliable receiver, to say the least. However, there is just something that seems off, something that discourages me from choosing them to win close games, and compete with the elite teams. I can't pinpoint that reason but I feel it has something to do with Cutler. Look, Cuter is a fine talent, but you can't just put together a team based on the best players you can find (sounds crazy right?). I just don't think Cutler fits in with what Chicago wants to do. Chicago has never been a gunslinging team. They run the ball and play defense. All Cutler did last year was throw because the Broncos were going through RBs like tissues and the defense gave up so many points that they found themselves behind often. I don't think the Bears offense is right for a QB like Cutler. And because of that, I think they will have trouble keeping up with Minnesota and Green Bay.
4. Detroit Lions (4-12)
I was perusing Yahoo's fantasy player rankings and came across something rather unsettling. Matthew Stafford is 856th on the overall list. I'm sorry, but that's just overkill. Shame on you Yahoo. I know I have made many jokes at the Lions' expense but they are NOT going to go 0-16 again. Yes the defense still stinks on ice, but the offense has talent. Calvin Johnson is a big time threat at WR and Kevin Jones is an above average RB. I don't think Stafford is going to be fantastic, but I think he'll play well, well enough to chalk up a couple wins this season. Obviously, they will still need a few more building years before they can think about playoff contention.
NFC South
1. Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
I think I'm developing a man crush on Matt Ryan. Don't ask me why because I can't explain it. It's something deeper than words. It may be premature on my part because he has only played one season, but he was absolutely terrific last year. If this continues, I may have to add him to my current man crush list of Tom Brady, Bill Simmons, and Steve Carrell. The Falcons' roster looks awfully strong: Michael Turner, Anthony Gonzalez, Matt Ryan, even Roddy White is coming along nicely. If the defense can hold its ground, they should take the division without much problem.
2. New Orleans Saints (10-6)
The Saints offense is ridiculous. They are going to score a lot of points. But the defense leaves a bad taste in your mouth. You can expect many high scoring affairs involving the Saints, especially against division teams such as Carolina and Atlanta. Drew Brees will be able to win plenty of games for them, but the defense will also lose some. However, the potent offense may be able to propel them to a wild card berth.
3. Carolina Panthers (8-8)
I don't think Jake Delhomme is that good of a QB. I mean no offense, he is a capable starter, but he just doesn't have that unidentifiable quality that Brady, Manning, and Brees do. It's something like an internal fire. And lately, Delhomme seems to be lacking fire wood. The running game is scary, and Steve Smith is definitely a threat, but the defense is no more than average and they always seem to be riddled with injuries. I expect them to fall off a bit from last season, and miss the playoffs by a few games.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10)
I feel bad putting the Buccaneers down here in the cellar because I think they deserve a good season. They have zero stability at the QB position and Cadillac Williams has never really lived up to the hype he created for himself. Antonio Bryant is the only offensive player worthy of mention and although the defense is still tough, I don't see a lot of success for the Bucs this year.
NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles (11-4-1)
That tie is not a joke right there. I'm predicting a 23-23 tie against the Giants. Who else has the balls to call that? If they don't know the NFL rules about what happens at the end of overtime... Anyways, people might think I'm crazy to pick the Eagles to win this division, but I think McNabb is going to have a nice comeback season. Westbrook is looking very good at the RB position, and despite how I may feel about him as a person, Michael Vick can provide some big play ability to this offense. I think if they put him in some sort of Wildcat or option package with Westbrook, they can drive defenses crazy.
2. Dallas Cowboys (10-6)
The Cowboys look like a good team on paper. Tony Romo can be a great QB when he wants to be, so basically when he's not dating Jessica Simpson, and they have a litany of talented RBs in the backfield. Marion Barber can run up the middle and bruise people, while Felix Jones is looking to get more playing time for outside rushes and possibly screen plays. But just like the Bears, it seems like something is just off in Dallas. Despite working their way to a "win and you're in" situation in week 17 last year, they got destroyed by Philadelphia and watched the playoffs from home. However, all that talent may fortify into a wild card run.
3. New York Giants (8-7-1)
I'm going to make this one short and sweet because there a very few things I have to say about the Giants. I can't see them keeping up with the better offenses in the league. Eli Manning has proved he can perform but his offense is falling apart around him. Plaxico Burress is gone and they now possess absolutely no downfied threat. That defensive line is going to need to come up big, perhaps bigger than they did even in 2007, to carry this team to the playoffs.
4. Washington Redskins (7-9)
The Redskins are the NFC version of the Jaguars with perhaps a little bit more talent. Clinton Portis is a great RB and Santana Moss is still a reliable option. However, they have many questions at the QB spot. I think Jason Campbell is ok, but I don't think he can lead the Skins to the playoffs, especially not with the competition in the NFC East. However, I wouldn't be surprised if the Redskins surprise us (wait...) and they pull off some upsets against better teams. I just don't see enough for a playoff run.
NFC West
1. Seattle Seahawks (10-6)
With Matt Hasselbeck back healthy, the Seahawks shouldn't have any problem recapturing the NFC West crown from the Cardinals. Not to mention, the addition of T.J. Houshmandzadeh (that IS the correct spelling) has greatly opened up the pass attack. As long as the Seahawks hold their own against the teams they should beat (mainly their 6 division games) they should be fine.
2. Arizona Cardinals (8-8)
Oh I know that everyone wants me to say the Cardinals are going to win the NFC West again, but I'm not going to. Sorry. In fact, they aren't even going to make the playoffs. Kurt Warner is 63 and there is no way he makes it the whole season, I would be surprised to see him in week 10 actually, and I don't think Leinart has enough experience to be honest. However, even if Warner does go down, that receiving corps is soooo good, that I will allow them 8 wins this year. But the defense still has many holes, so no more than 8.
3. San Francisco 49ers (7-9)
Now if you will all recall, I posted a few months back that I thought the 49ers had a chance to take this weak division. I have changed my mind. They have talent in the forms of Frank Gore, Patrick Willis, Isaac Bruce (despite his age), and TE/Beast Vernon Davis, but they have not been able to land a decent QB in years. Alex Smith was a complete failure, and O'sullivan was a bigger tragedy than the potato famine of 1845. Shaun Hill is simply not going to get the job done this year. However, I think QB is the only real glaring problem. If they could straighten that situation out, they would have a very good chance of competing.
4. St. Louis Rams (4-12)
The wheels have fallen off the "Rammobile", and the team has become utterly incompetent. Steven Jackson is a highly talented RB and we used to think Bulger was just as great as Warner before him. But the offense has absolutely no chemistry and the defense has absolutely no talent... or chemistry (which is a terrible combination). The two main components of "The Greatest Show on Turf" have departed and unless they plan on bringing Marshall Faulk out of retirement, the Rams have very little hope this season.
So to wrap it all up, here is the NFC playoff picture I have painted for you:
1. Green Bay Packers (12-4)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (11-4-1)
3. Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
4. Seattle Seahawks (10-6)
5. New Orleans Saints (10-6)
6. Dallas Cowboys (10-6)
My playoff predictions, including Superbowl match up and champion, will be up in the next few days. Thanks for reading.
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