Week 12

Thanksgiving weekend has not been kind to me. Food poisoning has debilitated me for the past 24 hours so please forgive me for the quick blog post here.

Week 12 games:

Cardinals @ Rams (-3)
Blake's Pick: ARI +3
Taking the points BEATS not taking the points

Bills @ Jets (-8.5)
Blake's Pick: NYJ -8.5
Jets secondary BEATS Ryan Fitzpatrick

Browns @ Bengals (-7)
Blake's Pick: CIN -7
The Red Rifle BEATS a Colt in the Chamber

Texans @ Jaguars (+3.5)
Blake's Pick: HOU -3.5
Matt Leinart (or anyone else not named Curtis Painter) BEATS Blaine Gabbert

Panthers @ Colts (+3)
Blake's Pick: CAR -3
Anyone BEATS Indy

Buccaneers @ Titans (-3)
Blake's Pick: TB +3
Joshy Woshy Twinkle Toes BEATS The Lock-ness monster

Vikings @ Falcons (-9.5)
Blake's Pick: ATL -9.5
Michael Turner BEATS Toby Gerhart

Bears @ Raiders (-5)
Blake's Pick: CHI +5
Caleb Hanie handing off to Forte 50 times BEATS Carson Palmer in any capacity

Redskins @ Seahawks (-3.5)
Blake's Pick: SEA -3.5
Qwest Field BEATS the dynamic duo of Grossman and Beck

Patriots @ Eagles (+3)
Blake's Pick: NE -3
Vince Young BEATS himself

Broncos @ Chargers (-6)
Blake's Pick: DEN +6
Denver's pass rush BEATS San Diego's O-line

Steelers @ Chiefs (+10.5)
Blake's Pick: PIT -10.5
Todd Haley BEATS a dead horse

Giants @ Saints (-7)
Blake's Pick: NO -7
Winning a superbowl with your arm BEATS being carried to a superbowl by your defense

NFL Playoff Picture: You Might Be Surprised

With 6 weeks left, its time to start looking towards the playoffs. I have divided all the NFL teams into 4 categories - Locks (going to the playoffs for sure/almost for sure/barring a Tom Brady injury), Contenders (currently leading or competing for division or wild card), On the Brink (one loss away from elimination), and Out (eliminated either statistically or emotionally). I actually used the ESPN Playoff Machine to pick every remaining NFL matchup and the final records I came up with (listed below) are an entirely possible scenario. I didn't have time for analysis, but I will do that later this week. I just wanted to make sure I got this posted before Week 12 starts.

AFC
Locks - NE, PIT, HOU, BAL
Contenders - DEN, OAK, CIN, TEN, NYJ
On the Brink - BUF, SD
Out - MIA, CLE, JAC, IND, KC

1. NE 13-3
2. PIT 12-4
3. HOU 11-5
4. DEN 8-8 (3-3 AFC West, 7-7 Common Games)
5. BAL 11-5
6. CIN 10-6

NYJ 9-7
TEN 8-8
OAK 8-8 (3-3 AFC West, 6-8 Common Games)

NFC
Locks - GB, SF, NO
Contenders - DET, CHI, ATL, DAL, NYG
On the Brink - PHI, TB
Out - WAS, MIN, CAR, SEA, ARI, STL

1. GB 16-0
2. SF 13-3
3. NO 12-4
4. DAL 10-6
5. CHI 11-5
6. ATL 10-6

DET 9-7
NYG 9-7

As for the Turkey Day Games, I will make the following selections:

Packers @ Lions (+6.5)
Blake's Pick: GB -6.5

Dolphins @ Cowboys (-7)
Blake's Pick: MIA +7

49ers @ Ravens (-3.5)
Blake's Pick: 49ers +3.5

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Week Televen Recadictions Mega Awesome Post

If you don't have the brain power to figure out what that title is supposed to mean, let me help you out. It is a combination of "week 10 recap" and "week 11 predictions".... They can't all be winners, people.

As promised, I will be offering you all an apology for my abysmal performance in last week's selections, as well as offering up more terrible suggestions for week 11. Let's take a look-see.

Week 10 Picks:

Raiders @ Chargers (-7)
OAK 24, SD 17 (Loss)
I already lamented this very poor choice at the beginning of the week 10 post. Don't wanna talk about it ever again.

Steelers @ Bengals (+3)
PIT 24, CIN 17 (Loss)
I stand by this pick. The Bengals played them hard, and it is clear that their defense is a lot better than we thought. After falling behind 14-0 in the first quarter the Bengals fought back and gave the Red Rifle a chance to lead a game-tying drive in the closing minutes. Unfortunately, Dalton threw a pick from the Steelers 25 yard line that sealed the defeat. We have to remember he's a rookie and that he'll fix those mistakes as he progresses. Also, don't discount how big of a win this is for the Steelers. It is a division road game victory (don't forget they lost both games to Baltimore already) and division record could play a factor in the coming weeks.

Broncos (+3) @ Chiefs
DEN 17, KC 10 (Win)
Well we knew the Chiefs were bad, but did we know they were "give up two completions all game and still lose" bad? I think you can write the Chiefs out, with Cassel out indefinitely now. As for Timmy Timmy Cocoa Puffs, 2 of 8, really? It's like you're taunting us. Are you actually trying? Are you really left-handed? Clue me in, Tim. The only time we should see a 2/8 QB stat line is if the game is being played in a tornado, or if Tyler Palko is on the field. No exceptions. Amid all the Tebowmania (or lack thereof) the Broncos have a silently fantastic run game. I don't know what makes Willis McGahee and Lance Ball a winning combination, but its working in Denver. And we all knew Tebow could run. Light bulb: Why can't Orton play QB and Tebow play FB? Just putting it out there.

Jaguars @ Colts (+3)
JAC 17, IND 3 (Loss)
I'm just not going to pick the Colts any more.

Bills (+5) @ Cowboys
DAL 44, BUF 7 (Loss)
Well fine Buffalo, it only took you 8 weeks to gain my trust, and in just two games you have managed to completely destroy it. The Bills, at one time 5-2, have dropped to 5-4 and I only see it getting worse from here. They don't have a particularly difficult schedule but their glaring problems have been exposed (pretty much their entire defense and Ryan Fitzpatrick getting paid WAY too much WAY too early). On the other hand, the Cowboys are on the upswing. DeMarco Murray is absolutely enthralling (guy wasn't drafted til round 3, 71st overall) and the way they are going right now, Tony Romo won't have a chance to screw anything up until he's asked to hold for a field goal in the playoffs. Dallas still plays New York twice and Dallas might need to win both to make up ground on the Giants.

Texans @ Buccaneers (+3)
HOU 37, TB 9 (Loss)
I don't care who is playing QB, my Houston Texans are going all the way this year. Honestly, is Matt Schaub that big of a deal? If I had to pick three current NFL QBs who I wouldn't want playing for me in a pressure situation, they would be John Beck, Curtis Painter, and Matt Schaub. All the Texans need for their last 6 games is a game manager who can hand the ball off and throw screens and slants. And let's give Leinart a chance, maybe he's not so bad. Oh and I'm done with Tampa Bay, i think they just suck. No more Joshy Woshy, its over.

Titans @ Panthers (-3)
TEN 30, CAR 3 (Loss)
I think I'm done picking the Panthers too. As much as I like Cam Newton, the fact remains that they are 2-7 and clearly need help in every position that isn't QB. And when Cam doesn't have a great game (this was by far his worst) that's when you get 30-3 losses. I don't know what to make of Tennessee. Somehow they are 5-4, which makes me sick to my stomach. Chris Johnson finally came alive in this game but Carolina's defense is downright awful, so I wouldn't get too excited.

Redskins @ Dolphins (-3.5)
MIA 20, WAS 9 (Win)
Washington has reached the "Indianapolis" level for me, I will bet against them every week until they prove that they have even the slightest bit of competency. I didn't even realize that Beck had lost the starting job and gave it back to Grossman, who played just as poorly in Miami. It may have been Beck wearing Grossman's jersey by mistake. Who cares? It is a crime that the Redskins have 3 wins, because they are the 2nd worst team in football right now and I don't know how much I favor them over the Indianapolis TAINTers. And don't get too excited about Miami. They beat the Chiefs and Redskins, two of the worst five teams in the league. They may be able to take care of a Bills team in free fall, but they stand no chance against Dallas, New England, and New York Jets still left on the schedule.

Saints (PK) @ Falcons
NO 26, ATL 23 (Win)
I don't care what the statistics say, you punt the ball on 4th down in overtime inside your own 30. I don't care if it's 4th and inches or 4th and 56, you punt the ball. Do you decrease your chances of losing by punting? Sure. But the reward is not worth the risk. Even if you convert, you now have 1st and 10 on your 30, what if you go 3 and out from there? And it really is a crap shoot on converting that 4th down. Everyone knows you're gonna run it up the middle and it comes down to which line gets the better push on one particular play. Not worth it. Way to go Mike Smith, kiss your season goodbye.

Lions (+2.5) @ Bears
CHI 37, DET 13 (Loss)
Hmmm, it is possible that I was wrong about Chicago. It seems to me that in this moment they are really really good. Like ten times better than last year (and that team went to the NFC Championship game). They are 6-3 (although I don't remember them winning six games) with their only loses @ NO, @ DET, and vs GB. They haven't faced a very difficult schedule otherwise, but I think as long as they get past the Chargers this weekend (which I fully expect them to do) it is smooth sailing. This Sunday's game marks the first of four consecutive games against AFC West teams for Chicago. If you can do basic math, you'll realize that's all the AFC West teams. The Bears are going to rip through the terrible division like a California wildfire. And then they play Seattle. Who made this schedule? It is very likely that the Bears are 11-3 heading into a week 16 matchup against the Packers in Green Bay, who will either be chasing perfection or trying to lock up the 1 seed with one loss (I can only imagine them losing to the Giants in week 13). Now that is a Sunday Night game. Well done, NBC.

Rams (+2.5) @ Browns
STL 13, CLE 12 (Win)
Still wondering if anyone in the world cares...

Cardinals (+13.5) @ Eagles
ARI 21, PHI 17 (Win)
Well Eagles fans, if you were waiting for rock bottom, I think we're there. If its any consolation, Michael Vick played most of that game with like 14 dislocated ribs, DeSean Jackson was benched because he missed 15 minutes of a special teams practice, and LeSean McCoy is the best RB in the league playing for a 3-6 team. Does that make you feel any better? No?... Good.

Ravens (-6.5) @ Seahawks
SEA 22, BAL 17 (Loss)
What the hell is wrong with Baltimore? One week they look like Superbowl contenders, the next week they look like they the Washington Redskins (which I have decided is the polar opposite a Superbowl contender). I don't trust Joe Flacco. I never have and until he gives me a reason to, I never will. Their receivers are no good, Ray Rice and the running game disappears for hours at a time (5 carries for 27 yards against SEA), and their kick returner fumbled twice. Those are demoralizing turnovers. You know what that sounds like to me? The 2010 San Diego Chargers. You better get it together Baltimore. And I still refuse to give the Seahawks any analysis time.

Giants (+3.5) @ 49ers
SF 27, NYG 20 (Loss)
I stand by this pick too. The Giants drove down the field in the closing minutes but stalled on the SF 10 yard line. The game could have easily gone to OT and I still like the Giants to win the East. This game was probably a preview of the 2 and 4 seeds in the NFC playoffs.

Patriots @ Jets (-1.5)
NE 37, NYJ 16 (Loss)
In my defense, at around 5:25 on Sunday I was overcome with an extreme confidence that New England would win. My cousin can confirm this, as I texted him "new england WILL win this game" just before the game started. So I really should've had this game and a 7-9 week but oh well. Big win on the road for the Pats. However, that defense will not hold up throughout the playoffs.

Vikings @ Packers (-13)
GB 45, MIN 7 (Win)
16-0.

Weekly Record: 6-10
Overall Record: 27-29-1

Moving right along. After that enticing full-16 game slate last week, we return to 14 games as the Colts, Steelers, Texans, and Saints have byes. Why do you taunt me like that NFL? And make up your mind about how many teams have byes each week. Sometimes its 4, sometimes its 6. What was wrong with having 8 bye weeks with 4 teams each? Let me be commissioner, it seems so simple. Here are the week 11 matchups:

Jets @ Broncos (+6)
Blake's Pick: NYJ -6
Already covered it in the last post...... And I hate my life.

Titans @ Falcons (-6)
Blake's Pick: TEN +6
This is really more of a pick against Atlanta, than a pick for the Titans. I'm still waiting for the chance to write them off, cuz they suck. I think Tennessee might be the better team, as weird as that seems. They don't have that many tough games left so don't be surprised to see them in the playoff chase. TEN 23, ATL 20.

Bills @ Dolphins (-2)
Blake's Pick: BUF +2
I know that the Bills are starting to fall apart but I just don't like the Dolphins being favorites. I think the Bills might put in one more strong showing (especially with Fred Jackson on the ground) before eventually fading into a 7-9 finsh. BUF 28, MIA 9.

Bengals @ Ravens (-7)
Blake's Pick: CIN +7
I refuse to go away from the Bengals. I have absolutely no faith in the Ravens and I think even if they win, it won't be by much. The Bengals defense is good enough to stop Flacco (a la Jacksonville) and I wouldn't be surprised if Cincy pulled it out. I have to give the slight edge however to Baltimore's veteran defense against Cincinnati's inexperienced offense. BAL 20, CIN 16.

Jaguars @ Browns (Pick)
Blake's Pick: JAC to win
Haven't these 2 teams played like 4 times this season? Why does it seem like these teams are always playing other crappy teams? I'm taking the Jags because Colt McCoy sucks and hopefully they'll just give MJD the ball 40 times. JAC 14, CLE 6

Raiders @ Vikings (+1)
Blake's Pick: OAK -1
I realize that the Raiders aren't the most consistent team ever, but I think their running game is strong enough (with or without McFadden) to put away teams like Minnesota. I also realize that Green Bay is by far the best team in football, but what a pathetic showing from the Vikings in that game. This line should be higher, especially after the way these teams played last week. OAK 24, MIN 10.

Panthers @ Lions (-7)
Blake's Pick: DET -7
I have been scorned by Carolina too many times. The Lions desperately need a win here at home and it will only be so long before the 2-7 Panthers team just gives up entirely. Look for Matt Stafford to get back on track against a porous Panthers defense. DET 31, CAR 14.

Buccaneers @ Packers (-14)
Blake's Pick: GB -14
I won't pick against the 16-0 Packers until they fail to cover one of these gigantic spreads.

Cowboys @ Redskins (+7)
Blake's Pick: DAL -7
By the same token, I will pick against the Redskins until they cover a spread.

Cardinals @ 49ers (-9.5)
Blake's Pick: ARI +9.5
The 49ers don't blow people out. Only 3 of their 8 wins have been by more than 10 points, and those were against Seattle, Tampa Bay, and Cleveland. Likewise, the Cardinals have only lost 2 games by 10 points or more, coming against Minnesota and Pittsburgh. And clearly the Cardinals have some fight in them, playing the Ravens and Giants very close and outright beating the Eagles. I don't expect a Cardinals victory, but a touchdown or less should separate these teams. SF 20, ARI 16.

Seahawks @ Rams (-2)
Blake's Pick: STL -2
Seahawks can't play on the road.

Chargers @ Bears (-3.5)
Blake's Pick: CHI -3.5
This line should probably be a little bit higher. The Chargers haven't done anything in the past month that makes me think we can keep up in this game. Meanwhile, in the past month the Bears are 4-0, outscoring their opponents 130-65. The game won't get out of hand, only because the Chargers don't do that. I can't remember the last time we were legitimately blown out in a game. But with the ways the Bears are playing on defense, and with the ever-threatening Devin Hester, you have to think the Bears should win by a TD. CHI 28, SD 21.

Eagles @ Giants (-6.5)
Blake's Pick: NYG -6.5
This feels like a classic letdown game for Eli and the Giants. They are riding high, leading the division. The Eagles come in beat up, fully in the midst of a downward spiral, simply unable to bring things together. Not to mention, the Eagles HAVE to win out at this point. The 7th loss will be the one that puts them out of the playoffs. 9-7 does not make the playoffs in the NFC this year. The Bears are too good and someone else (Dallas? Detroit?) will make it to 10-6. It feels like it could be the Dallas Sunday night game all over. HOWEVER... However.... The Eagles just announced that Vince Young will be starting so I'll take the Giants. NYG 35, PHI 17.

Chiefs @ Patriots (-14.5)
Blake's Pick: NE -14.5
Without Cassel and Charles, Kansas City has to be one of the 3 worst teams in the NFL. Indy has that number 1 spot locked up this year, but maybe they compete with Washington for the number 2. Even with the makeshift defense New England is gonna send out there, you would have to give me 25 points to take the Chiefs. At least. NE 38, KC 10.

I wanted to throw in a few extra attraction in this post, but as it is now 12:54 AM Sunday morning, it appears I have run out of time. Look for my playoff picture post coming out in the next few weeks, as well as my Top 42 NFL Right Tackles post in the near future. Ask and ye shall receive. Sports Guy out (screw copyrights).

SUPER IMPORTANT: Format Change

I have decided to mash the usually separate prediction and recap posts into one mega super kamehameha weekly NFL post. Unfortunately we have these pesky Thursday night games so I'll probably put up a very short post (like this one) to give my pick for that single game and then unleash the monster of the "last week's recap AND this week's predictions" post upon you on Saturday. Just keep your eyes peeled.

Jets @ Broncos (+6)
Blake's Pick: NYJ -6
Tim Tebow and his impossibly low pass completions may be enough to beat the Dolphins, Chiefs, and Raiders but I still believe the Jets are a playoff team. Let's see what happens when Rex Ryan sends 14 man blitzes at him. Plus, the Jets HAVE to win this game after an embarrassing loss to New England, in which they collapsed like a stage at a Sugarland concert at the Indiana State fair (...... too soon?). Its week 11, its time for some urgency to set in for several NFL teams.

Thanks for reading. And again, please show this blog to your friends, coworkers, parents, enemies, goldfish, IRS agents, and favorite WWF wrestlers (unless its Edge , that guy sucks... and probably can't read anyways) who you think might like a creamy combination of sports, wit, and prose.

Week 10: Winds of Change

My switch has officially been flipped. The Chargers lulled us all into a false sense of security, barely escaping from bad teams on the way to a 4-1 start. And on October 9th, fresh off a victory over the electric QB tag team of Orton and Tebow, San Diego was all alone at the top of the AFC, already 2-0 in division road games. Now, a month later, the Chargers are 4-5, probably looking at third place in the division after this Sunday's games. The losses have all been by 7 points or less, but they have been lost in true Charger fashion. In week 7, the Chargers led the Jets 21-10 at halftime and choked away the win, failing to score in the second half. In the last 3 losses (against KC, GB, and OAK) the Chargers have been outscored in the first half 58-23. This is nothing new for Bolts fans, but usually the Chargers pull out these games. And these slow starts don't usually last through November.

This season just feels different. The running back situation is not working out. The Mathews/Tolbert combo leaves a lot to be desired. Rivers is throwing way too many interceptions, and it's been 10 weeks now, how long can we continue to call it a fluke? On top of that, our offensive line has been demolished by injuries and as much as you try to patch the leak with a cheap replacement, something is gonna get through and massacre your QB.

It is time, for me at least, to accept that the Chargers simply aren't a good team. We are average at best. Probably in the same league as the rest of the pathetic AFC West. I'm not saying that the Chargers can't win the division (because no one seems to want it), but this is the first time this season that I have felt like it isn't our division to lose. Not anymore.

Anyways, the hours are growing thin here before kick-off, and clearly I've wasted enough of your time whining about the Chargers, so let's quickly run through this week's full 16 game slate with quick commentary:

Steelers @ Bengals (+3)

Blake's Pick: CIN +3

I'm not entirely sure why, but I loooove the Bengals in this game. They are scrappy, they've got a young talent, and a legitimate defense. Gotta give them some love at home. CIN 16, PIT 13

Broncos @ Chiefs (-3)

Blake's Pick: DEN +3

I don't think the Chiefs are better than the Raiders, whom Denver beat last week. Tebow, amid all his shortcomings, has a lot of fight and a lot of fire in those eyes. DEN 27, KC 20

Jaguars @ Colts (+3)

Blake's Pick: IND +3

This is it Curtis Painter. This is your best remaining chance (and possibly ONLY remaining chance) to get a win. The Colts have continually disappointed and failed to coverage huge spreads, but this is desperation time. IND 26, JAC 21

Bills @ Cowboys (-5)

Blake's Pick: BUF +5

What exactly have the Cowboys done to impress me? They have given away games and failed to cover spreads against teams like Seattle. I just don't know which Cowboys team is going to show up, and thus I take the points. DAL 32, BUF 30

Texans @ Buccaneers (+3)

Blake's Pick: TB +3

Buccs need a good showing at home here, and I won't be surprised if the Texans (who ruled out Andre again this week) let them stick around in the fourth quarter. TB 23, HOU 21

Titans @ Panthers (-3)

Blake's Pick: CAR -3

I keep picking the Panthers and I should probably stop because they are 2-6 and don't really deserve to be favored. But I'll give Cam one more week here, I could really use a big game from him. CAR 31, TEN 20

Redskins @ Dolphins (-3.5)

Blake's Pick: MIA -3.5

I will pick against John Beck (who remains winless in his NFL career) until my dying day. I hate the Redskins. They are awful. Dolphins win by default. MIA 21, WAS 3

Saints @ Falcons (Pick)

Blake's Pick: NO to win

Despite the Saints propensity to lose games in which I pick them, I don't think they'll have much trouble with the Falcons. Actually, I think this game could be over be the fourth quarter. NO 37, ATL 20

Lions @ Bears (-2.5)

Blake's Pick: DET +2.5 (Jessica's Pick)

"Detroit as a city is making a comeback. Recently discovering the glory that is the Detroit Lions, I now believe in their winning prowess. Plus, the Bears like to choke. I also predict there will be one injury requiring a precautionary cart off the field, but it will not be serious. DET 27, CHI 14" - Jessica Petrotta

Rams @ Browns (-2.5)

Blake's Pick: STL +2.5

Who cares?

Cardinals @ Eagles (-13.5)

Blake's Pick: ARZ +13.5

Too high.

Ravens @ Seahawks (+6.5)

Blake's Pick: BAL -6.5

Too low.

Giants @ 49ers (-3.5)

Blake's Pick: NYG +3.5

I hate that I love Eli Manning.

Patriots @ Jets (-1.5)

Blake's Pick: NYJ -1.5

Say hello to your first 3-game losing streak ever, Patriots.

Viking @ Packers (-13)

Blake's Pick: Packers -13

16-0.

Week 9 Recap: Rising Heat

I was 9-3 after the Sunday afternoon games. And it would have been 10-2 if the Rams weren't the Rams. I was riding high, confident in my night game picks, all set up for a huge 11-3 week. Well I'm not sure how Torrey Smith managed to get open on that winning touchdown pass, and the Eagles came out flatter than Portia di Rossi last night. So I guess 9-5 isn't bad, but I really deserved a 10-win week.

Anyways, I came through AGAIN on my fantasy guarantee, as I obliterated my opponent by over 60 points. Strong showing from stand-in stud QB Andy Dalton (who may have just earned himself a spot on my bench) as well as Antonio Gates, Michael Bush, and Darren Sproles with 20,19, and 18 points respectively. And after skating through most of my stars' bye weeks unscathed, I come in hot next week with Cam Newton and newly acquired MAURICE JONES-DREW leading the Cradlers in a huge matchup against Eric Peck (the team, not the person... we miss you, Eric Peck the person).

Let's take a look back at my best picking week so far:

Falcons (-7) @ Colts
ATL 31, IND 7 (Win)
We have another Dan Orlovsky sighting folks! The Russian Rifle came in again following a particularly awful showing by Curtis Painter against the Falcons this week. Here's his stat line through 2 appearances: 7/11, 55 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs. Now I don't want Colts fans to get too excited, because I know the stats are mouthwatering, but we could be looking at the next Tom Brady here. Would you believe me if I told you Dan Orlovsky went to Michigan just like Brady? Well you shouldn't because he went to Connecticut. But that's not important. Give Orlovsky a chance to lead this team and you could very well be looking at a strong 1-15 finish.

Buccaneers (+8) @ Saints
NO 27, TB 16 (Loss)
Well I took the points because they Saints have been so inconsistent of late, but maybe the Buccs are just bad. Freeman looks good on paper - 27/37, 281 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT. But there's no fire, no drive, no urgency to win. Tampa was continually stifled after crossing midfield, and put up only 9 points on 3 field goals through the first 54 minutes of the game. Although they did manage to put it in the endzone in the closing minutes, they were unable to come up with a defensive stop until the Saints had driven down the field and kicked a field goal that put the game out of reach. It might be time to vacate the Joshy Woshy Bandwagon. Looks like this division is back in the Saints control.

Browns @ Texans (-11)

HOU 30, CLE 12 (Win)

Well well well, don't look now but here come MY Houston Texans. As far as I'm concerned this division race is over. The Titans are going nowhere fast and the remaining 2 teams in the South may be the worst 2 teams in football. It is a cakewalk for the Texans. Also, I'm glad the Browns suck (they are much worse than their 3-5 record would suggest, they have beaten Indy, Miami, and Seattle by a combined 12 points). You got a little cocky after that ridiculous Madden cover and now you are right back where you belong. Enjoy Colt McCoy.

Jets (+1.5) @ Bills

NYJ 27, BUF 11 (Win)

Gosh that score doesn't really do the Jets justice. The Bills are lucky it didn't get out of hand. It was 27-3 at one point in the 4th quarter and I think it just as easily could have been 34-3 or worse. And the scary thing is that the Jets offense didn't even play that well. The stats are wholly unimpressive for both Sanchez (who turned the ball over twice) and the "Gang Green" rushing attack. But the defense controlled the game from start to finish. And all of a sudden I am more afraid of the Jets than perhaps anyone in the AFC. What is with this conference?

Dolphins (+4) @ Chiefs

MIA 31, KC 3 (Win)

I have to admit that most of the credit for this pick goes to my cousin Noah, who for some reason was so confident in a Dolphins victory that he actually picked them in our suicide pool. I myself was willing to entertain the thought that the Dolphins could lose by 3, but I was shocked by this score. Firstly, the Dolphins have ruined my tanking theory, perhaps realizing that the Colts are unbeatably bad, and seem to have given up on Andrew Luck. Secondly, even though the Chargers kept pace with the Chiefs thanks to this result, it doesn't make the Halloween Massacre any easier to swallow. Makes me feel worse actually. Kudos to Matt Moore, turns out he is more than just a pretty face. I can't remember the last time a Dolphins QB threw 3 TDs, but thankfully we have ESPN around to tell me that it was Chad Pennington in 2008. Good stuff.

49ers (-3.5) @ Redskins

SF 19, WAS 11 (Win)

The Niners can do whatever they want, the division is theirs. You do realize that they already have as many wins as the division winner last year, right? And explain to me how Seattle, Arizona, or St. Louis gets to 7 wins this season? Either the Seahawks and Cardinals would have to go 5-3 from here on out (and the Rams 6-2) just to TIE what the 49ers have right now. It's over. Stick a fork in it. I guess it would be nice if the Niners scored more TDs. I dunno, who cares? Take the next 8 weeks off San Fran, see you in the playoffs.

Seahawks @ Cowboys (-11.5)

DAL 23, SEA 13 (Loss)

Garbage time Marshawn Lynch TD for the cover. Stupid.

Broncos (+8) @ Raiders

DEN 38, OAK 24 (Win)

I will give credit where credit is due. Tim Tebow led his team to victory, there is no debate there. He threw 2 TDs and had 0 turnovers. Solid. He ran for 118 yards on 13 carries. How Vickian of you, Tim. However, he completed only 10 of 21 pass attempts for just 124 yards. Now look, his team won, and the 61 year old Willis McGahee was ripping holes in the Raiders defense so Tebow didn't need to throw a lot, but still. Needs to work out a few kinks with that whole passing thing. But there's potential, I will admit. There's promise.

Bengals (+3.5) @ Titans

CIN 24, TEN 17 (Win)

Who would have thought that it would be the Cincinnati Bengals leading the ENTIRE AFC halfway through the season? Even if you thought the Bengals were going to be good, you would have been ridiculed if you had claimed they would be the best team in the AFC after week 9. Now there are 6-2, and in the NFL, all you can do is win with the schedule you are given.... But they STILL haven't played anyone. They lost by 5 to the 49ers and beat the Bills by 3 and that is it. We knew coming in that they would have to play the Steelers and Ravens 4 times in the last half of the season, but besides that it's really just Houston (who may have the division well in hand by week 14 when they come to Cincy). I'm just saying that Andy Dalton is good, and A.J. Green is good, and the Bengals defense is good. If they can win their home games against Pittsburgh and Baltimore, they have a shot at that division.

Rams (+3.5) @ Cardinals

ARI 19, STL 13 (Loss)

God I hate the NFC West. The Rams had a 42 yard field goal blocked as time expired in regulation, which would have given them a 16-13 victory. The Rams also got the ball to start overtime, but punted after 5 plays. Their punter, who had twice pinned the Cardinals inside the 10, put the ball on the one yard line, but then the Rams special teams happened. Should have been tackled at the 16. Should have been tackled at the 30. Should have been tackled at the 35 (nice effort by punter Donnie Jones, by the way). There was no reason I should have lost with the Rams +3.5. Bradford said later that he felt they had dominated most of the game and it was tough loss to take. Oh is that right? Your offense scored 9 points all game. That thing the Cardinals call a quarterback gave you 4 points on back to back safeties. First team ever to score a total of 4 points in a quarter. And you blow it. Well done Rams.

Giants (+8.5) @ Patriots

NYG 24, NE 20 (Win)

Oh hey Patriots fans... Welcome to the rest of the NFL fanbase. Don't worry, you'll get used to the whole consecutive losses thing. This is by far the worst team Tom Brady has had to play with during his Patriots tenure. The RBs are all hurt (and terrible). The defense as a whole is awful. And they may have the worst starting secondary ever. And when Brady has average games, like he did last week, the Patriots have no chance. For a coaching genius, Belichick has blown A LOT of draft picks in the last decade. They are giving Brady very little to work with. And all of sudden, Eli Manning is an above average QB, who knew?

Packers (-5.5) @ Chargers

GB 45, SD 38 (Win)

Are we surprised at all by this score? I said (in my analysis that blogspot decided to delete) that I thought the Chargers would play up to the Packers and keep it close. My only question was if it would be field goal close or touchdown close. I went with TD and I was proven correct. I didn't feel as bad as you might think after the game. I was very calm (going in assuming that we would probably lose). Apart from the glaring problem that is Philip Rivers throwing pick sixes, I felt the Chargers played a pretty good game. And after those first quarter miscues, Rivers put up 300+ yards and 4 TDs (and 1 INT in desperation time that I do not blame him for). The Packers offense is simply unstoppable. And while they have obvious problems on defense, they just get the job done. Still not worried about the Chargers, there's a 5 game win streak coming up here real soon.

Ravens @ Steelers (-3)

BAL 23, PIT 20 (Loss)

Sigh, I broke the cardinal rule for Steelers-Ravens matchups: You always take the points. Always. I got a little caught up in the Ravens last few games, where they struggled against Jacksonville and Arizona. But they are just too close to give one an advantage. And don't count out the Bengals. It's gonna be a good race for the AFC North.

Bears @ Eagles (-8)

CHI 30, CHI 24 (Loss)

And the Dream Team is back! Every week it's "Will they? Won't they?" They are the like Ross and Rachel of the NFL. And Matt Forte may be the best player in the league who you never here referred to as a candidate for best player in the league. I mean, we know Jay Cutler isn't the one leading that team. The Bears are quietly 5-3, but I don't buy it. I like the Packers and Lions too much to let the Bears into that discussion. You beat Green Bay, then we'll talk.

Weekly Record: 9-5

Overall Record: 21-19-1

I am picking the Chargers (-7) against the Raiders tonight. Like I said 5 game win streak starts here. Also, Carson Palmer on a short week doesn't exactly put the fear of god in me (now watch him throw 4 TDs). Look for the rest of the week 10 picks this weekend.

Week 9: F You Blogspot

So I actually wrote a nice introduction for this post, and went on to break down the NFL matchups as usual. I spent about 7 hours in total working on. I went to publish it just now and Blogspot told me I wasn't logged in (which is a lie). So I logged in, and an error message popped up saying it couldn't find the page. So I closed the window, opened up a new one, logged on to Blogspot, and clicked on the list of posts (which includes drafts). And even though I had been periodically clicking the "Save Now" button to record my progress, NONE OF IT WAS SAVED. So I'm not at all happy, and it is very late. So unfortunately, all I can do for you is quick picks this week. Thanks a lot Blogspot.

ATL (-7) @ IND

TB (+8) @ NO

CLE @ HOU (-11)

NYJ (+1.5) @ BUF

MIA (+4) @ KC

SF (-3.5) @ WAS

SEA @ DAL (-11.5)

DEN (+8) @ OAK

CIN (+3) @ TEN

STL (+3.5) @ ARZ

NYG (+8.5) @ NE

GB (+5.5) @ SD

BAL @ PIT (-3)

CHI @ PHI (-8)

Week 8 Recap: WCTD: What CAN Tebow Do?

I have a couple of midterms coming up so I'm gonna have to keep it short and sweet here with the recap. I'll be able to put more time into next week's picks. Although I have had 2 different people tell me they are going to pick the opposite of all my predictions, which really makes me feel good inside. I'm trying my best ok?

[Insert witty banter here]

Let's get to the games (My pick is in parenthesis):

Colts (+8.5) @ Titans

TEN 27, IND 10 (Loss)

So clearly Chris Johnson isn't having a great year. I can see statistics. I'm tired of Johnson fantasy owners complaining about him, when I am guaranteed to get no more than 17 points from my first round pick this entire season. But hey, Javon Ringer has a little fight in him and it was announced this week that the Titans are going to move towards a system "where the hot back is rewarded." Just means CJ2K sucks and everyone knows it. But alas, the Colts can't cover against anyone. Once they realized that they are going nowhere with Painter, they just threw it into number 1 draft pick mode. You either get Andrew Luck to apprentice Manning, or you trade it to someone for all their 2012 draft picks. Colts got a lot of holes to fill.

Jaguars @ Texans (-9.5)

HOU 24, JAC 14 (Win)

After the 49ers, the Texans have the easiest road to their division title. Nice to see them actually winning these games. AND they are winning them without Andre Johnson (who will be back) and Mario Williams (who won't be, unfortunately). As for Blaine Gabbert, looks like I was right about goldilocks out there. Nice 10/30 showing Blaine.

Vikings @ Panthers (-3.5)

MIN 24, CAR 21 (Loss)

Ugh... I watched this whole game, and I don't know how the Vikings won. I guess they played pretty mistake free but I didn't see them do anything well. Cam was magical again, and AGAIN his defense let him down (against Christian Ponder no less). And 62 year old Olindo Mare missed a 30 yard field goal in the final seconds. It is unlikely that you cover 3.5 in overtime, usually you'll get a 3 point result, but I still felt bad for Cam. He deserves more wins. Could easily be 4-4 or better. Vikings still stink by the way.

Saints (-13) @ Rams

STL 31, NO 21 (Loss)

I do all this research, just to show you how historically bad the Rams have been this season and then the Jekyl and Hyde Saints come in. They were like the stupid house who leaves a bowl of candy outside with a sign asking that people only take one. Hahaha, good joke. You come back 10 minutes later, that candy is gone. The Saints just left the bowl there and were like "Hey A.J. Feeley, just take a few points ok?" Stupid Saints. Stupid NFL. I hate it all.

Cardinals @ Ravens (-12.5)

BAL 30, ARZ 27 (Loss)

Well chalk up another wild card for the Ravens. It's unbelievable that after the beatdown they put on Pittsburgh in week 1, the Steelers would already have passed them up by November. And not just in record, I think the Steelers beat the Ravens 9 out of 10 times if they play right now. But I guess we'll find out next week. And maybe I should have taken my own advice about Kevin Kolb. Just good enough to keep his job, but just bad enough to be 1-6. All I can say is that the Ravens were lucky to come back in this game. Losing to Arizona at home does not leave a good taste in your mouth.

Dolphins (+10) @ Giants

NYG 20, MIA 17 (Win)

Take some notes Indy, this is how you tank with respect. You don't see the Dolphins going out and losing by 55 points do you? No, they are sneaky tankers, and they are damn good at it. I have no doubt in my mind that the Dolphins are going to lead every game for the rest of the season at halftime and find a way to lose by 3 points. Miami seems like the right fit for Luck anyways, doesn't it? And Eli Manning made me proud, coming nowhere near covering that 10 point line. Way to go Eli.

Redskins @ Bills (-6)

BUF 23, WAS 0 (Win)

So I did say that I liked the Bills a little bit, but I would attribute this to the pure incompetence that is the 2011 Washington Redskins. John Beck was sacked NINE times (the Bills had 4 sacks in their first 6 games). John Beck also stunk, being behind the whole game, throwing 33 times and only amassing 208 yards and 2 INTs but at least he's not Blaine Gabbert. I still don't think the Bills will make the playoffs, although they really have just one competitor for the 6 spot and that's the Jets (I'm not counting the Raiders or Chiefs, but we'll get to them). We'll see next week when the Jets come into Buffalo for a big division matchup.

Lions (-1.5) @ Broncos

DET 45, DEN 10 (Win)

Where is your Tebow now, Denver? Where is your Tebow now? I mean, do you keep starting him? How long does it go on for? If you are out on Orton, you still have Brady Quinn on the bench, and I am unwilling to believe that (based on talent and technical abilities) Tebow is a better QB than Brady Quinn. Maybe they are setting up for a Drew Bledsoe/Tom Brady type deal. Wait til Tebow gets hurt (because benching him would cause mass hysteria) and then bring in Brady Quinn and BOOM, super bowl champs.... Or maybe not. Oh hey, nice game there Lions. Big fan. Love the defense.

Patriots (-3) @ Steelers

PIT 25, NE 17 (Loss)

Well, I don't know about all of you, but I was surprised. I was surprised that the Steelers so effectively slowed down the Pats offense (I don't want to say "stopped" or "shut down" because Brady was still 24/35 with 2 TDs). They had absolutely no deep threat, but that may just be their own fault. I was REALLY surprised by the Steelers coming out and throwing FIFTY times. That is not Steelers football. Big Ben was 36/50 (which is his second highest performance for both completions and attempts in his career) for 365, 2 TDs, and 1 INT. He completed passes to 9 different receivers (did you know that Jerricho Cotchery was on the Steelers??? Me neither!). Mendenhall did put up 70 yards on 13 carries (a luscious 5.4 average) but the Steelers were intent on attacking the Patriots glaring weakness, their secondary. Let me throw out some names for you: Devin McCourty, James Ihedigbo, Patrick Chung, Kyle Arrington. Although this may sound like the components of a boy band, it is actually the Patriots starting secondary. Not a good sign. You have to think the Steelers are the class of the AFC at this point, but don't count out the Patriots, they always bounce back.

Browns @ 49ers (-8.5)

SF 20, CLE 10 (Win)

I was forced to watch this game in HD and had to resort to crappy online streams to catch a glimpse of the Patriots-Steelers game. What a boring affair. The Browns are secretly not so bad and secretly really bad at the same time. If you look at the stats, they are not all that different. Surely the 49ers have the better running game with Gore (and Kendall Hunter is nothing to sneeze at). But the reason this game was decided by 10 points is because the Browns turned the ball over twice, while the 49ers did not. The most surprising thing, however, is that Colt McCoy somehow managed to recover three of his FOUR fumbles. You wanna guess how many times he was sacked? Yep, four. I don't like your prospects, Colt, if you are going to fumble every time a defensive lineman looks at you.

Bengals @ Seahawks (+2.5)

CIN 34, SEA 12 (Loss)

And that is the last time I waste 109 words on a Seahawks prediction. I was wrong, they deserve nothing. You never bet against the Red Rifle (who, by the way, will be leading my fantasy team this week while Cammie Wammie Twinkle Toes Frosted Flakes Gummy Bear Sugar Snaps rests on his bye week). I hesitate to say that Andy Dalton is in the running for rookie of the year, because I just feel like Newton has been so transcendent. But Andy has led his team to a 5-2 start (where Cam is 2-6). Let's see where the Red Rifle stands after his 4 games against Pittsburgh and Baltimore.

Cowboys (+3.5) @ Eagles

PHI 34, DAL 7 (Loss)

So I was at the Gaia Penthouse (sounds super fancy dunnit?) for Monday night's game. And as I am sitting there, waiting with eager anticipation for the Chargers to punch me in the gut, I asked my Eagles fan friend Anjan, "Well you must feel pretty good about that Eagles-Cowboys game, huh?" He replied "Ehhhh, the fourth quarter was so typical Eagles, letting them drive down the field... BLAH BLAH BLAH." Here am I, a fan of a team about to lose control of the second worst division in football to the Kansas City Queefs, willing to give my left nut for a 34-7 victory over ANYONE, and he has the audacity to say that he wasn't pleased with his team's performance in a MEANINGLESS 4th quarter in a game they won by 5,000 points over their BIGGEST division rival... What an a-hole. I hope LeSean McCoy gets hit by a bus (and lives... I'm not a monster) and that Tony Romo finally realizes he's left handed.

Chargers @ Chiefs (+3.5)

KC 23, SD 20 (Win)

Sigh. Say what you want about the Chargers. We win that game 99 times out of 100. Any other team wins this game 100 times out of 100 in our position. There was some cosmic "higher power" stuff going on here. How many times will you see a QB (especially one of Rivers caliber - still top 10, everyone relax) make such an egregious mistake on a play where the only important thing is NOT FUMBLING? And by the way, two offensive pass interference penalties on the Chargers in one quarter? One of which overturned an Antonio Gates TD catch? That simply does not happen. A team could go all season without an offensive PI call. And if what Gates did on that play was PI, then every pass play in the NFL is offensive PI, that's all I have to say on that. The Chargers did not play to their fullest ability (4 turnovers, never good) but it's not like the Chiefs played a great game. What more can you want if you're the Chargers? After being down 13-3 at halftime, to be in a 20-20 tie with the ball on your opponent's 15 yard line with under a minute left an no time outs to be found. Then to BLOW that and win the overtime coin toss... How much more do you need Chargers? How much more do you need?

Weekly Record: 6-7

Overall: 12-14-1

If anyone is wondering, I did in fact come through on my guarantee, riding the Detroit Lions defense and their 42 points to a much-needed fantasy victory. And I will issue a second guarantee to win again this week to improve to 4-5.

Check back very soon (like tomorrow) for week 9.