Week 8: WWTD - What Would Tebow Do?

If there is anything to be learned from the St. Louis Cardinals World Series Championship, it is that nothing in sports is for certain. A team that shouldn't even have been in the playoffs. A team that was 1 strike away from losing the World Series... twice. A team that every one counted out, even after their improbable run through the National League playoffs. Despite the fact that they knocked off title contender after title contender, it felt as though they were not themselves considered contenders until they recorded that final out on Friday, clinching their 11th championship title in franchise history.

There is nothing more deadly than a team that catches fire. Were the Cardinals the best team in baseball this year? Absolutely not. Were the San Francisco Giants the best team last year? No way. Were the Packers the best of the NFL last season? They went 10-6 and BARELY made the playoffs (remember the Buccs and Giants were also 10-6 and didn't make it). Seems more and more these days that the most important thing is just getting into the playoffs and hoping for a run (and hey, if you get HANDED home-field advantage because the MLB is stupid, well that's just gravy).

And that is why I traded Darren McFadden this week. It was a sad occasion. I had to ask him for his powder blue "Newton's Cradle" jersey back (get it? because this is called Newton's Cradle, and I have Cam Newton and he's real young, so he would sleep in a cradle?? I'm witty, dammit). Here's my rationale. I am 2-5. My fantasy team has been ravaged by injuries. If I am going to make a Cardinals-esque run, I need to start winning now. McFadden is on a bye week, and is injured, and by the time he's ready to go I could be 2-7 and that WILL NOT WORK. So I flipped him and Ben Rapethisberger (because I have the greatest rookie QB ever) for Darren Sproles and Steve Johnson. Look I wanted more, ok? I wanted Fred Jackson and Larry Fitzgerald but Edward is a weenie, so what are you gonna do? I gave away 2 players from my bench (this week) and got 2 players who can start for the rest of the year. And I personally like Sproles (but maybe that's because I'm bitter he doesn't play for the Chargers anymore). Anyways, I am guaranteeing a victory this week and I will see you all in the playoffs... hopefully.

But let's get back to the stuff everyone actually cares about. We've got a great slate of NFL games for you, if you just ignore like 11 of the games. The schedule makers spared no expense in making sure that you get to see exciting matchups like New Orleans @ St. Louis and Miami @ New York. As always, I will be giving you bad predictions on each and every NFL showdown. Let's get it on.

Lines courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton:

Colts @ Titans (-8.5)

Blake's Pick: Colts +8.5

As I have said, 62 point games don't happen in the NFL. The Colts let the game get away from them, and the Saints were merciless. But don't forget that the Titans were also embarrassed last week, in a game that actually meant something to them. If the Titans had beaten the Texans last week, they would have assumed first place in the division. I don't believe that they are any good, and Chris Johnson has been an absolute joke so far. Look for a relatively close, low-scoring game. Maybe 17-13 Titans.

Jaguars @ Texans (-9.5)

Blake's Pick: Texans -9.5

We may never see a bigger fluke than what transpired last Monday in Jacksonville. I do not buy it for one second. The Texans are the best team in the AFC South and they will play like it here. It may not be quite a show like their win over Tennessee, but I don't think it's going to be in contention in the 4th quarter. If Blaine Gabbert turns out to be the next Montana, then my apologies to him, but he's garbage. Can't complete 50% of his passes. Less than 6 yards per completion. And in his only NFL win (last week against Baltimore) he was 9 of 20 for 92 yards, like in the whole game, 4 quarters. Texans 28-10.

Vikings @ Panthers (-3.5)

Blake's Pick: Panthers -3.5

I just still think the Vikings stink. And I will continue to back Cam Newton until he gives me a reason not to. Real impressed with his play last week. Because the Panthers run defense is not the scariest bunch around, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Adrian Peterson puts up big numbers in the first half and we see the Vikings ahead. But ultimately little Cammie Wammie twinkle toes (I can make up nicknames too Cousin Sal) will lead Carolina's vaunted pass attack to a double digit victory. Panthers 34-24.

Saints @ Rams (+13)

Blake's Pick: Saints -13

There couldn't be a line high enough to make me pick the Rams. Not after what I said last week about the Saints giving up a backdoor cover. Unless you found a sportsbook somewhere offering the game at Indy +56, you were out of luck on that theory. Here's a trivia question for you (don't check espn.com or you're a cheater): which total is higher? The number of points St. Louis has scored all season or the number of points New Orleans scored last week? The correct answer is.... the Saints!! As we know, they dropped 62 last Sunday night. The Rams have put up 56 points during their 0-6 start. That is an abysmal 9.33 points per game. Also, they have marked just 5 TDs in their first 6 games. If the Rams were somehow able to keep up this pace for an entire horrible season, they would score 149 points, including 13 TDs. If my sources are correct, this would keep them out of the record books for points scored, saved only by the 1991 Indianapolis Colts and their 143 point season. However, they would edge out the same Colts team for lowest number of TDs in a season 13 to 14. These stats are all just a fancy way of saying the Rams may be the second worst team in the history of football. I'll take the Saints 34-7.

Cardinals @ Ravens (-12.5)

Blake's Pick: Ravens -12.5

How often do we see a good team blow a game, and then turn around and destroy some bottom-dweller by 31 points? The Ravens, besides needing to win to keep up with the Steelers, must be so ticked off right now. Especially the defense. If you were say... Ray Lewis, how mad are you that your offense lost you that game? And the last thing you want if you're Kevin Kolb is a pissed off Ravens defense. By the way, how's that Kolb trade working out for the Cardinals? He has found a strange middle ground. He is neither so bad that he warrants being benched nor is he good enough to win more than once every 6 games. He has been spectacularly mediocre. But what is Ken Whisenhunt to do? They have only been blown out in 1 game, Kolb is keeping them competitive. And is John Skelton really going to do anything better? You think this face should be the face of their franchise? I sure hope not because that face is frightening. We know the Ravens offense isn't great, but we also know they aren't THAT bad. They rebound and win 26-10.

Dolphins @ Giants (-10)

Blake's Pick: Dolphins +10

Well the Dolphins have really taken the Suck for Luck to a new level. What they did last week was so brilliantly terrible, so beautifully self-destructive that they must be considered frontrunners for the Stanford gunslinger. Let's look at what transpired. The Denver Broncos come in at 1-5 after purposefully trading away their best receiver and benching their best quarterback. Let's not fool around here, everyone but Tim Tebow was tanking that game (Tebow was trying, he's just bad at football). The Dolphins, however, would have none of it. After they realized that their "Celebration of all things Tebow" plan was not enough, they had to switch gears. After capturing a 15 point lead, they threw the game in the last few minutes, securing an 0-6 record and virtually eliminating the Broncos from the Luck Sweepstakes. The Broncos, now with 2 wins, which might be too many for the first pick anyways, are forced to pursue this whole Tebow ordeal because the fire has been fueled and the city of Denver would revolt if they were to go away from him now. Well played Miami, well played indeed. Oh, the line you ask? Yeah I'm trying out a theory that Eli Manning is physically incapable of covering a spread larger than 7. Giants 30-21.

Redskins @ Bills (-6)

Blake's Pick: Bills -6

It should be noted that this game will be played in Toronto, Canada, which despite popular belief is actually different than Buffalo. But I don't think it makes much of a difference. For some reason, I still kinda like the Bills a little bit. It feels like they are due for a good showing. And I am completely out on the Redskins. When your best players are Rex Grossman and Tim Hightower... and then you bench one and the other tears his ACL, it's probably not your season. Buffalo's defense steps up and Steve Johnson puts up 2 TDs (please) as the Bills roll 27-13.

Lions @ Broncos (+1.5)

Blake's Pick: Lions -1.5

This is absolutely ridiculous. I'm wondering if there is some sort of anti-teaser bet. Where instead of moving the line to Detroit +4.5 and getting a smaller payout, I could move the line to Detroit -7.5 and bet a gajillion dollars on THAT. Look, I may be being a tad harsh on Tebow. They did, after all, win a game in which they trailed 15-0 with 3 minutes left. But here's the problem. These are not the Miami Tankers. These are the 5-2 Lions, who have struggled their last 2 outings, but who are still immensely talented. If Tebow repeats his performance and puts up 24 passing yards through the first 57 minutes of the game, I can guarantee you that they will be losing by much more than 15. And give the Lions some credit for Tebow's sake! (See what I did there?) This line should be at least -3.5. I cannot think of a conceivable scenario in which the Lions don't win by at least a field goal. Detroit douses the Tebowmania flames 38-13.

Patriots @ Steelers (+3)

Blake's Pick: Patriots -3

Finally! This is what we've been waiting for. What's that, NFL? You don't want to make it a night game? ... Are you sure? What? You'd rather put the Chargers and Chiefs on Monday Night? ... Are you joking? ... No I wasn't trying to do your job, I was just thinking out loud. Anyways, there are just some games that you feel like will come down to the last possession and be decided by a field goal. For me, this is not one of them. I certainly think it could be close, and that it could come down to the last possession. But I think in any case, the Patriots win by 7. I think there is going to be a lot more offense than people expect (we know New England's defense isn't great, but Pittsburgh's hasn't been so hot either). I think the game is going to go back and forth. I expect good play from both QBs, as well as noteworthy appearances by Mendenhall and Green-Ellis. But ultimately, I just think the Patriots are better, and the Patriots just know how to get the job done. 38-31.

Browns @ 49ers (-8.5)

Blake's Pick: 49ers -8.5

What's the bigger joke? Peyton Hillis being voted onto the Madden 12 cover? Or.... you know what, I can't even come up with anything to rival that. Congrats Peyton. You know what's really interesting though? I never realized before that the Madden curse not only applies to the cover athlete, but to any athlete sharing their name as well. Weird. I could almost hear Peyton Manning's neck muscles screaming "NOOOOOOOO" when Hillis won the stupid fan vote. As for the 49ers, didn't they clinch the NFC West last week? Jim Harbaugh has that team in very good position. Based solely on the ease of their schedule, they could be looking at a first round bye in the playoffs. They have to play the Giants, Ravens, and Steelers, but that means they should, at the very worst, be 12-4. I don't see anyone else challenging them for the 2 seed (with the 1 seed obviously going to Green Bay at the moment). Also, the Browns just stink. They beat the 0-7 Colts by 8, the 0-6 Dolphins by 1, and the (surprisingly) 2-4 Seahawks by 3. This could be another 48-3 drubbing if the Browns aren't careful. 49ers win 33-14.

Bengals @ Seahawks (+2.5)

Blake's Pick: Seahawks +2.5

After passing entirely on any kind of Seahawks commentary last week, I feel like they deserved at least a little bit this week. Seattle is 2-4, including a 1-3 road record. The thing is that the Seahawks have the single greatest home field advantage in the NFL. They are a different team at home. In their 2 home games so far, they beat Arizona 13-10, and lost by just 2 to Atlanta (and they were within a 61 yard field goal of taking that game). I'm going to give the Seahawks and Clipboard Jesus the edge in this one only because the 12th man at Qwest field is so mighty.

Cowboys @ Eagles (-3.5)

Blake's Pick: Cowboys +3.5

Remember those games I was talking about? THIS is one of those games. If any game this week is going to come down to a last second winning field goal, this is it. The Cowboys are incapable of putting teams away (unless they are St. Louis) and are unwilling to be put away. I do indeed think the winner of this game will have a good shot to go on and take the NFC East, so there's a lot riding on this one. It comes down to the QBs (although that's a rather obvious statement). Both Vick and Romo have been terribly inconsistent. Vick has had up and down performances from game to game, whereas Romo just can't help himself from throwing interceptions at the worst possible time. Whoever screws up the least, leads his team to victory. I'm leaning towards Tony. Cowboys 31-28.

Chargers @ Chiefs (+3.5)

Blake's Pick: Chiefs +3.5

I will admit that I was riled up last week after the Chargers blew the Jets game. But it has been a week and I have had some time to cool off. I am unnervingly calm regarding this game at the present time. I'm sure by kickoff I'll be worked up into a fanatic fervor as always, but for now, I feel a lot better than I did last Sunday. I read an article about Philip Rivers' poor play this season. And strangely it made me feel so much better. Rivers kept saying things like "We aren't playing our best ball right now, but we keep moving forward" and "We lost. It's over. We just have to look forward." For some reason, I believe him. We haven't played well, but we are 4-2 and we will keep moving forward. I have to believe that he has it under control, that he'll figure it out. And as my cousin Noah likes to say: "No one will remember our early season struggles when we are lifting the Lombardi Trophy in February" (or something like that). I think the Chargers win this game, but the Chiefs always play us hard in Arrowhead, so I don't think they win by much. Bolts 27-24.

Bye Week Teams: Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, Oakland, NY Jets, Tampa Bay

Happy Halloween everyone.

NFL Week 7 Recap: Keep Fighting and Good Things Will Happen

I would just like to point out that I never claimed to be a prophet (except for that one time with the Patrick Willis thing, still tentative, btw). But if you don't know already, you will soon learn that I am exceptionally bad at picking NFL games, mainly because I pick the Chargers every week and they very rarely make me feel good about myself. So you probably shouldn't take my advice when it comes to the actual games, but hopefully my wit and charm make up for my glaring lack of picking success.

I also incorrectly stated that we would see a definitive confirmation of the good teams, emerging with strong victories, but alas several highly ranked teams fell to lowlier foes this weekend. Let's get down to the action.

The number in parenthesis indicates my pick.

Bears @ Buccaneers (+1)

CHI 24, TB 18 (Loss)

What must London think of the NFL? Why don't we send the Patriots and Packers to play over there, or are we purposefully trying to avoid London viewership? What an ugly game. Cutler barely completed 50% of his passes (17/32) for 226 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INTs, but was not to be outdone by Joshy Boy Sporty Spice Tuna Melt Hillshire Farms Jelly Belly Freeman. Twinkle Toes managed to put the ball up 51 times (far more than he should be throwing), completing 29 for 264 yards, 2 (garbage time) TDs, and FOUR interceptions. I think maybe it's time to be a little worried if you're a Buccs fan (or Bill Simmons) because Josh is struggling to get it done against mediocre defenses (Bears are 27th in passing defense). But despite logic, both teams are 4-3. Matt Forte continues to be the only bright spot on that offense, rushing for 145 and 1 TD, and adding 28 yards receiving. Talk about carrying a team. On the other hand, the Buccs have issues at the RB spot. With Blount and Graham both down with injuries, they have turned to Kregg Lumpkin who has 54 career rushing yards and the worst name for an athlete ever.

Redskins @ Panthers (-2.5)

WAS 20, CAR 33 (Win)

This was not a huge statistical game for Cam, as were his first few. He threw only 23 times, completing 18 for 256 yards and 2 TDs (1 rushing). But these are the performances that will win him games. He played safe, mistake free football. He didn't turn the ball over. He didn't panic when the Panthers were unable to convert in the red zone early in the game. Olindo Mare put up 4 field goals (including the first 9 points Carolina scored), and Cam didn't get it into the end zone until the 3rd quarter. But 3 points is 3 points. Those points add up. Good job by Cam keeping his head up and putting up his second NFL win. Oh and by the way, John Beck was decent, I may owe him a bit of an apology. But decent isn't going to win the Redskins any games. Bring back Sexy Rexy.

Chargers (-2) @ Jets

SD 21, NYJ 27 (Loss)

I debated about whether or not I should even bother providing analysis for this game. But this is my blog and you are gonna listen to my complaining. Firstly, I was so pleased with the Chargers first half performance. You have to understand that when we blow games, it usually happens in the first half. We waste red zone possessions. We get punts blocked. We get two consecutive punts blocked. And when we finally get it going, we are down by 24 and it's too late. Not this time. We had the big defensive TD right off the bat. Then after one three-and-out, we had two long and grinding TD drives in the second quarter and we took a beautiful 21-10 lead into the half. At this point my 31-10 prediction was looking mighty fine. We came out a little flat in the 3rd quarter, that's ok, it happens. The Jets took away some of our passing game, that's ok, that's what they do. They cut the lead to 21-17 as we entered the 4th. Not so confident now, but still leading. As the Chargers moved the ball into Jets territory, I was sure we were gonna score and go up 28-17. I was positive. 3rd and 5 at the NYJ 25. Rivers threw an admittedly bad pass a little behind Vincent Jackson, but it took a wholly unlucky bounce off his shoulder into the waiting arms of Darelle Revis, who scampered all the way back to the Chargers 19. And the game was over. From 100% to 0% in one play. I knew we had lost. If that ball was an inch in either direction, it would have been a catch or an incompletion. At the very worst, we get a field goal to go up 24-17. That pick crushed us. We folded like Phil Ivey with a 3,7 offsuit. Sanchez found Burress for a third time in the end zone, and I almost turned the game off. Rivers went on to throw a 2nd interception, this one undoubtedly his fault. And then led the most pathetic 2-minute drill you will ever see in your life. I guess worse meltdowns have happened (see 2011 MLB Wild Card Races) but the entire team was demoralized and you could tell. I understand that bad games happen. I understand you can't win every week. But I have no faith left that this current Chargers team can get it done. I have no faith in Norv Turner. Zero. I have no faith that Rivers and our offense can respond to adversity (which is something I never thought I would say, but is sadly true). I have no faith that we can beat teams who are better than us, because we always seem to find ways to lose to the ones that aren't. That 4-2 next to our name means very little right now. Even though we are in first place, we are on the brink. We have a HUGE game against the Chiefs on Monday Night next week, and if we blow it, this whole season unravels. I have no doubt. Lastly, Rex Ryan is a stinky a-hole.

Seahawks (+3) @ Browns

SEA 3, CLE 6 (Push)

Nailed it!

Texans (+3) @ Titans

HOU 41, TEN 7 (Win)

HA! I was finally on the right side with these pesky Texans. It just seemed so improbable for them to let this year, of all years, get away from them. If they ever make a playoff run, its got to be now. The Texans are the much more talented team here, and they finally played like it. Arian Foster had a field day, with 234 all purpose yards and 3 TDs. And with the way the Texans defense showed up, Schaub could've gone 0/23 with 3 INTs and it wouldn't have made a difference. Matt Hasselbeck was benched in favor of Jake Locker late in the game (which we all knew was coming) and Chris Johnson had just 18 yards on 10 attempts (which is only ok if you're Tim Tebow, but OH HO HO we will get to him). This division is Houston's for the takings, and I am 100% on the Texans 2011 division champion bandwagon.

Broncos (+1.5) @ Dolphins

DEN 18, MIA 15 (Win)

And we have arrived. Before anything else, I would like to retell a quick story for you all. As I watched and waited for my beloved Chargers to implode, I kept an eager eye on the Broncos-Dolphins game. Unfortunately, I couldn't find a good stream, so I was resigned to tracking stats online. I believe we were in the 3rd quarter, with the score sitting at 6-0 Miami. I was on the phone with my girlfriend Jessica, who thinks it's funny to root for Tebow simply because it irks me to no end. I brought up the fact that Timmy had only thrown for 24 passing yards (which was true for most of the game) and was making a complete fool of himself out there. She replied "God will not shit on Tim Tebow," which will probably turn out to be the quote of our lifetimes as he goes on to win every Superbowl for the next 36 years. And as the fates would have it, she was right. God simply refused to shit on Tim Tebow on that day. That being said, oh my lord he was awful. Let me break down his performance for you. In the first quarter, he completed a 7 yard pass to Eddie Royal... on a 3rd and 10 (punting the next play). Then approximately 5 minutes later, he completed a 1 yard pass to Knowshon Moreno on a 2nd and 12 (ultimately resulting in a missed field goal). Fast-forwarding to the 2nd quarter, around the 14-minute mark, he completed a 16 yard pass to full back Spencer Larsen, which marked their first passing first down of the game. And for those who know the ancient art of addition, that puts us at 24 passing yards. His next completion came with about 7:30 minutes left IN THE FOURTH QUARTER. He went an astonishing 36:30 of game time without a completion. After his fourth completion of the game, he threw 2 more incompletions and took, what I believe at the time, was his fifth sack of the game. But when he got the ball back with 5 minutes left and a 15-point deficit, he was unstoppable. The weird thing is that his passes weren't any prettier and he didn't look at all more comfortable, but for some reason, his receivers were finding their way under his throws. We all know the rest of the story. The Broncos score 15 points in 5 minutes, aided by an unlikely onside kick recovery. And get extremely lucky in OT (in which, I would like to point out, Tebow did not complete a single pass) when the Dolphins fumbled in their own territory to set up the winning field goal. Despite their 2-4 record, the Broncos must be the luckiest team in the NFL, and they have stats for that now, so I'm gonna find out. I suppose we have just reached the point where stats like passing yards and completions don't matter for QBs anymore, as long as you keep fighting good things will happen. Oh is that so Tebow? Let's see you keep fighting when you have 24 passing yards next week and its 52-0 Detroit in the 4th quarter. Let's see your God save you then.

Falcons @ Lions (-3)

ATL 23, DET 16 (Loss)

The only thing the Lions did right in this game was winning the coin toss. Holy cow what happened to their offense? Stafford completed only 15 of 32 attempts and pulled in with only 183 yards and 1 TD. The Lions were 1-12 on third downs. And they struggled to establish a run game without Jahvid Best. Although Maurice Morris' average appears enticing (5.6 yards per rush) going for 50 yards on 9 carries, he broke 1 carry for 31 yards, meaning that he rammed himself into the offensive line 8 times for a total of 19 yards otherwise. As for the Falcons, Matt Ryan tried his best to lose the game, throwing 2 INTs and faking an injury for a little while. But the Lions weren't having it, putting up easily their worst offensive display of the season. Both teams are playing below expectations at this point in the season and you have to worry about the Lions who have struggled and lost their past 2.

Chiefs @ Raiders (-4)

KC 28, OAK 0 (Loss)

Ummm, I don't know what to say. I guess my only defense is that Darren McFadden missed almost the entire game with a foot injury, and clearly neither Kyle Boller nor Carson Palmer were ready to start this game, which makes me and my Rich Gannon joke look a little foolish... I really don't know what happened. Maybe the AFC just won't have a 6 seed this year. With the way Baltimore played, maybe they just won't have wild cards at all. Honestly, it is going to be hard enough to find teams willing to win the West and South, maybe just default the Patriots to the Superbowl. Last note: is it weird that I am now more scared of the Chiefs than the Raiders? Tell me we aren't gonna do the whole Chiefs thing again....

Steelers (-3.5) @ Cardinals

PIT 32, ARI 20 (Win)

I think the Steelers are going to win the AFC North. Finally started to put it together. Their offensive line certainly seems to be improved, as Big Ben seemed to have a lot of time back there, compiling 361 yards, 3 TDs and a 121.8 QB rating. He was sacked twice, but I think if you're Ben Roethlisberger you can deal with that. The most surprising thing about the Steelers is their lack of takeaways. Did anyone else see the stat during the Saints game? I thought it said the the Steelers were the worst team in the league with TWO takeaways through 7 games. Well that's not true... because they have 3. Regardless, I would not have guessed this Steelers defense (ranked 1st against the pass) to be in the cellar of the turnover department. That is just historically bad luck. That won't last.

Rams @ Cowboys (-12)

STL 7, DAL 34 (Win)

So, DeMarco Murray huh? Where has he been and why the hell should I care about Felix whats-his-face anymore? I know it was the Rams defense, but people don't just run for 253 yards in NFL games. That marks the 9th most rushing yards in a game in NFL history, which is absurd because this guy started the season on the bench. And most importantly, he didn't even give Romo the chance to sabotage the game, it was over before it began. My apologies to Felix Jones, but if that doesn't secure Murray the starting position, (at least for now) I don't know what does.

Packers (-9) @ Vikings

GB 33, MIN 27 (Loss)

Let's not get excited here. The headline on the game recap reads "Aaron Rodgers, Packers hold off Christian Ponder, Vikes to stay undefeated." The article then goes on to praise Ponder and his "fearless" performance. Oh is that right? The Packers had to hold off Ponder and his fearless 40.63% completion rate (13/32)? They had to escape from his gritty 2 INTs? Calm down ESPN. I think we all need to remember that Adrian Peterson is still the best RB in the league, and does still play for Minnesota. Maybe he and his 175 yards on 24 carries should earn the "fearless" moniker. This game was never really in doubt. The Packers came out and won, just like they always do. It was a little closer than we expected but we all know the Packers defense isn't world class, just good enough. And that's what they were on Sunday. Good enough.

Colts (+14) @ Saints

IND 7, NO 62 (Loss)

Umm...... whoops? I don't know what to say here. Just seems uncalled for. NFL teams don't score 62 points these days, and unless the other team has 55, I don't really see why they should. I guess the Saints had a point to prove and Brees just wouldn't stop throwing the ball. An apology is owed to the St. Louis Rams, whom last Saturday I called the worst team in football. Clearly that title belongs to the Indianapolis Colts. And it's not even close.

Ravens (-7.5) @ Jaguars

BAL 7, JAX 12 (Loss)

Do you guys remember what I said about the Ravens after last season? If you don't take a look here (scroll down to number 7). Nothing has changed. I guess the Jaguars defense isn't terrible, but the Ravens have no business being in a close game with the Jags, let alone LOSING to them. The Ravens are probably still a playoff team, by default, but that offense has to be a major concern. Maybe Flacco's not your guy. Maybe Ray Rice can only put you on his tiny back for so long. But you better figure it out John Harbaugh, because your schedule is only getting tougher and its gonna be an awkward Christmas dinner if Jim's team is better than yours.

Week Record: 5-7-1

Check back later this week for Week 8 predictions and commentary. And as always, thanks for reading.

NFL Week 7: Avenues of Desire

Look. At. This. No posts for 7 months and now you get 2 in 3 days? Sometimes I worry that I spoil you guys too much.

Week 7 already huh? Seems like the season just started... Then again, it has been awhile since I've seen Antonio Gates without a little red Q next to his name on my fantasy bench, but I'm not bitter. It's not like any of my other high draft picks got injured (See: Jamaal Charles). Hey, at the very least, I have derived a sure-fire blueprint on how to start 2-4. Also I'm not Matt Millen. Always thankful for that one.

Anyways, getting down to brass tacks, it's just about that time in the NFL season where teams start to figure each other out. Teams that have been overperforming will fall back to the pack (sorry Buffalo) and likewise teams that have been underperforming will start to put things together (unless you play for Andy Reid, in which case the only thing you'll be putting together is a baker's dozen of donuts). We can usually tell by week 7 or 8 who the truly good teams are, and which ones are coached by Josh McDaniels.

Quick side note: If you google "Josh McDaniels," the first result is his Wikipedia page, the second is "Images of Josh McDaniels," and the third is joshmcdanielssucks.com. Who is the lucky SOB who was able to get his hands on that domain name? Must have bought it the day the Broncos hired him.

But the point is, we should, at this point in the season, be able to separate the wheat from the chaff. I would like to put a heavy emphasis on the word "should" because I'm about to guess the winners of these games and if I get like 11 of them wrong, I can hide behind semantics.

Here we go (Lines courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton):

Bears @ Buccaneers (+1)

Blake's Pick: Buccs +1

This game is being played in London (because 30,000 people will be dumb enough to confuse "football" with "futbol") but I guess the Buccs are technically the home team. I'm not completely sure why the Bears are getting so much credit. Whoop-di-doo you beat Christian Ponder. Good for you. I am just supposed to forget about the way your offensive line played against Green Bay? I'm just supposed to forget that Jay Cutler is capable of throwing 26 picks in a season if he really puts his mind to it? I can't help but be skeptical of the Bears. And while I am not so hot on Joshy Woshy Twinkle Toes Pudding Pop Bit O' Honey Tootsie Roll Cinnamon Toast Crunch Freeman either, I am much more impressed by their bounce back victory over New Orleans than by anything the Bears have done. Look for the Buccs to squeak out a close one 27-24.

Redskins @ Panthers (-2.5)

Blake's Pick: Panthers -2.5

I mean, let's be real. The Panthers aren't gonna go 1-15. This has to be a win for Cam Newton. They are at home. The Redskins come in after a disastrous game against the Eagles. Rex Grossman has been benched indefinitely in favor of John "Doe" Beck. Seriously, nobody knows who this guy is! Quick! Where did John Beck go to college? If you said BYU and you didn't google it, you deserve a cookie. Go get one from your pantry. He played 5 games (all losses) for the Dolphins in 2007 (in which he managed to turn the ball over 8 times) and did not record another stat until last week... Where has he been for 4 years??? You're telling me this is the best the Redskins could find? A guy who has NEVER won an NFL game? Cam Newton may not be Randall Cunningham... yet. But at least he has a win under his belt. Panthers win this one 30-16.

Chargers @ Jets (+2)

Blake's Pick: Chargers -2

How dare you Rex Ryan? How dare you say that you could have won 2 superbowls with the Chargers? How dare you say that and put it in my mind and make me wish so badly that you were my coach and that I never had to see Norv Turner's stupid face after an inexplicable playoff loss again. Sigh. At least Norval Redenbacher (nickname credit goes to TJ Sriv) had the balls to respond by asking Rex Ryan where his rings that he promised to win with the Jets were. Maybe you can have half a respect point back Norv, but don't make me regret it! I see two foreseeable outcomes here. First, the Chargers get the pressure on Dirty Sanchez and Ryan Mathews runs all over the suddenly porous Jets run defense, SD wins easy 31-10. OR, a jacked up LT runs for 362 yards and 7 TDs as Rex Ryan shakes with evil mirth on the sidelines and celebrates with a bucket of turkey legs. Really hoping its the first one.

Seahawks @ Browns (-3)

Blake's Pick: Seahawks +3

You know what's interesting about this game? Nothing.

Texans @ Titans (-3)

Blake's Pick: Texans +3

Strangely intriguing game here. I am not off the Texans bandwagon, per se. I don't think they are going anywhere without Andre Johnson and Mario Williams, but they might have to win the division by default. Are the Titans any good? Chris Johnson has been uncharacteristically quiet, just one 100 yard game (and that was just 101 yards). Kenny Britt is lost for the season and I bet you can't name two other Titans receivers. Maybe their D is really strong. I don't know how they beat Baltimore. I need to see Schaub step up in this game. Little Arian Foster too. 34-24 Houston.

Broncos @ Dolphins (-1.5)

Blake's Pick: Broncos +1.5

And we're here. Let me lay out the circumstances of this game for you. The Denver Broncos last played 2 weeks ago against my Chargers. The game seemed won when the Bolts took a 26-10 lead into the 4th quarter. But who should rise from the ashes of Kyle Orton? The Golden Child Timothy Richard Tebow. And little Timmy Tebow led the Broncos on a roaring comeback, in true Tebow fashion (meaning he completed only 4 of 10 passes). Now look, Tebow was less than impressive with his arm, let's be honest. His first completion was a short out to Decker for no gain. Then he did not complete another until the screen pass to Moreno that went for a TD. Come on, its a screen pass, not the highest degree of difficulty. His remaining 2 completions were on the game's final drive where the Chargers were in a DEEP prevent defense giving him anything short of 30 yards. However, you cannot deny the energy and drive he brought to that offense. So that's circumstance number 1. Secondly, the Dolphins are just shit. Sorry to be so blunt. And lastly, this Sunday, of all days, Miami is celebrating the Florida Gators 2008 National Championship... led by Tim Tebow. Are you out of your mind Miami??? IT'S TIM TEBOW DAY! You have created a day celebrating nothing but the opposing quarterback, and he is going to come in and crush you. Miami Dolphins 3, Denver Fightin' Tim Tebows 28

Falcons @ Lions (-3)

Blake's Pick: Lions -3

I'm done with the Falcons. I don't think they're any good. Lions are coming in hot after that villainous handshake/back slap thing Jim Harbaugh pulled, and also after giving away that game at home. But mostly about that handshake. How dare he? You know what Gym Shorts? You need to calm down a little bit. Take a step back. You lost. You're fault. Don't go getting upset because he shook your little hand too hard. Don't make excuses. You wanted a fight, because you were pissy, but thank god for you that Harbaugh has some restraint because we all know he would have LAID. YOU. OUT. Anyways, Lions turn it around, win 30-20.

Chiefs @ Raiders (-4)

Blake's Pick: Raiders -4

Too low. 4 points is too low. Look the Raiders are going to be the 6 seed this year, we need to start giving them a little credit. I don't care who is starting at QB (probably Kyle Boller until Carson Palmer gets comfortable) but the Raiders could beat the Chiefs with Rich Gannon at QB, neck brace and all. You really just need to get the ball into McFadden's hands, and honestly Matt Cassel will do the rest for you, Oakland wins 24-7. Quick note on Carson Palmer. Do I think it's a good move? Probably not, but what was Oakland gonna do with all those draft picks anyways? At least he's an arm, but isn't Oakland where all great sports figures go to die? Maybe he'll change things.

Steelers @ Cardinals (+3.5)

Blake's Pick: Steelers -3.5

I hate the Cardinals. Steelers are one of those "good" teams I was talking. Good teams don't lose to Arizona. 24-10.

Rams @ Cowboys (-12)

Blake's Pick: Cowboys -12

So I was a little worried by expecting the Cowboys to be involved in a game decided by more than 4 points, because they just don't do that. But the Rams are the worst team in football. Dead last. 32 of 32. Worse than the Dolphins. Worse than the Colts. If they weren't in the NFC West, I would say they had a pretty solid shot at 0-16, but they'll probably get one against the Cardinals or Seahawks. The point is, if not now Cowboys, when? Dallas 27-13.

Packers @ Vikings (+9)

Blake's Pick: Packers -9

Hmmmm, when do we give Christian Ponder his first NFL start? I know, the Green Bay game! Where we'll have a 0% chance of winning but the home crowd will be going nuts anyways and expect things from him. Solid planning there. Here's what it comes down to. If the Packers want to be 16-0, they will be 16-0. Plain and simple. GB wins 34-14.

Colts @ Saints (-14)

Blake's Pick: Colts +14

Well this game looked a lot better when the Colts weren't awful huh? The Saints aren't going to lose this game but they have one of those defenses that let's teams back in when they have the big lead. Expect a relaxed New Orleans defense to give up a few scores to Curtis Painter when the game is already out of reach. Saints 31-21.

Ravens @ Jaguars (+7.5)

Blake's Pick: Ravens -7.5

And this game NEVER looked good on paper. I don't know who put this game on primetime. This game will only carry fantasy implications, as someone, somewhere, will need a TD from Maurice Jones-Drew. But that is all they will get from the Jags as the frightening Ravens D shows up to ruin the party. Ravens 24-7.

And here are the teams that couldn't be bothered to play this week:

Bills, Bengals, Patriots, Giants, Eagles, 49ers

The Noble and Most Ancient House of Blake

Don't read into that title too much, I was just kinda feeling it. But if you have a burning desire to call me that when you see me around town, I will not object.

Misleading titles that make you forget that I haven't written a blog post in nearly 7 months aside..... how are you guys? Feels like a long time since these magic fingers have tickled the plastic. Meaning you've been stuck reading smucks on ESPN or FoxSports who have huge databases and editors/publishers/coworkers at their disposal, in order to create the most succinct and enjoyable sports journalism experience. And nobody wants that. No! I know what the people want. A 20 year old college student with nothing more than a MacBook and his prodigious skill, sitting on his twin-sized bed in only his boxers, addressing the most important needs of the sports world. And who am I to deny the American public what they want?

Without further ado, let's dive right into the murky waters of the National Football League.

For a surprisingly upset-heavy start to the football season, we have a completely unsurprising trio of teams at the top of the latest power rankings. Of course, the top spot is held by the Green Bay Packers (6-0) who are so good that they played the second half last week blindfolded and still beat the Rams by 21. Did anyone else notice that Aaron Rodgers was throwing left-handed? No? Oh well. Then you have the New England Patriots (5-1) who should be undefeated, if not for a 4 Int game from Tom Brady, who probably won't throw 4 total the rest of his career. And we round out the top 3 with the Baltimore Ravens (4-1) who have some sort of Benjamin Button shit going on with that defense, because I swear to god they all must be 50 by now but they keep... getting... better. The Saints, Chargers, and Steelers sit at spots 5,7, and 8 respectively, which means that 6 of the top 8 ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE.

But here's the surprise. The 4 spot belongs to the NFC West Leading San Francisco 49ers (5-1) fresh off a victory against the 6th ranked Detroit Lions (5-1). How pleasant. How quaint. How nice to see the teams that Barry Sanders and Jerry Rice played for finally picking themselves up out of the mud. Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. Firstly, that game last week was uggggly. Lots of field goals, lots of mistakes. The Lions, up 10-0 very quickly really should have won. Give kudos to the Niners, but I'm still not entirely convinced. Secondly, neither team has really beaten a good opponent. The closest thing would be the 49ers 48-3 destruction of Tampa Bay, but I definitely wouldn't put the Buccaneers in my upper echelon of teams. As for the Lions, the only game they won handily was against the lowly Chiefs, who have more problems right now than a math book (GET IT?). If you look at week 3, we see the 49ers in a high-excitement 13-8 game against Cincy, and the Lions needing overtime to beat the Vikings by 3. Maybe I just need to see a little more from them before they can be in my top 8.

Interesting side note here. Look at this post from May 4, 2009. See that part where I threw in off-hand that Patrick Willis would be the MVP of Superbowl XLVI? Yeah, that was 900 days ago. And yeah that's this upcoming superbowl. And I'm not saying the 49ers are going.... but hey, they ARE 5-1. That kind of prediction only comes true once in a lifetime, unless you're me. In that case it happens all the time. One day you are predicting the super bowl MVP almost 3 years in advance and the next you're calling a 9-run inning (EXACTLY 9 runs) before it happens. For confirmation, email Joe at blakestradamus@gmail.com (not an actual email address, but Joe was there, it happened).

After that top 8, it gets a little dicey. You have the Raiders, who I actually think are good. They have finally discovered the Trent Dilfer corollary and have assembled a machine that works regardless of who is taking the snaps (Read: Darren McFadden is really good). Then the Bills, who I do NOT think are good, probably heading towards a mid to late season collapse and an 8-8 finish. And then you have a mish-mosh of teams with 4-2, 3-2, or 3-3 records who look like the real deal one week and then get spanked by 35 the next. You have the Giants, Buccs, Titans, Bears, Redskins, Jets, Texans, Bengals, and Falcons who all fit into this weird middle ground territory. I mean, would you bet on any of these teams to make the superbowl this year? To win a playoff game? To win their DIVISION??? It just seems to me like the divide between contenders and pretenders, between the haves and have-nots, between the upper 1% and the lower 99% has widened significantly so far this year. Maybe that's what the Occupy Wall Streeters are all up in a fuss about... probably all Jets fans.

And then we reach the bottom feeders. Started off surprisingly by the Eagles and Cowboys (who we'll get to in a second). But then encompassing all to familiar faces in the Seahawks, Browns, Chiefs, Panthers, Cardinals, Broncos, Vikings, Jaguars, Dolphins, and Rams. With the exception of the Panthers, not much light at the end of these tunnels. Unless you believe in Charlie Whitehurst. Unless you believe in trading your best receivers away so your new starting QB has no one to throw to. Unless you believe Brett Favre and his tiny dick are gonna make a comeback, you may be out of luck for the next 5-10 years. Or you might be sucking for Luck.

Side note: Cam Newton is an exceptional talent and just so freaking exciting to watch. That team's just not there yet. It's too bad he's not getting more wins, he deserves them. That defense can't give him any help.

Now we have "America's Team" and "The Dream Team," currently 2-3 and 2-4, sitting at the bottom of the NFC East. If you're a Cowboys fan, I have nothing for you. Maybe Tony Romo's cursed? The way they lose football games is so gut-wrenchingly terrible, it really is hard to watch. Maybe your fortunes will turn around? I don't know. Hang in there. As for the Eagles, if anyone told you the ship has been righted by that win over Washington, you have been egregiously lied to. Look at the stats. Michael Vick had a wholly mediocre game - 18/31, 237 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT (+ 54 yards rushing). LeSean McCoy, who continues to play at a high level went for 126 and 1 TD. And Jeremy Maclin notched a 101 yard performance on 5 catches. But there was no... BURSTING OUT. They should have won this game by 40 points. Rex Grossman had 9 completions to his own team, and 4 to the Eagles defense. The Redskins, as a team, rushed for 42 total yards. The Redskins were 1-10 on 3rd down. The Eagles had the ball for over 38 minutes. Should I keep going? I saw highlight after highlight of "The Eagles big win," and I was the only one who seemed to notice that the final score was 20-13. Do you think the Patriots win that game 20-13. No, the Patriots win that game 56-3. The Eagles cannot put anyone away. They tried so hard to give that game away but Rex Grossman said "No thanks, I'm good" as he threw another ball into Kurt Coleman's stomach. I think something is still terribly wrong in Philly. And we are going to find out with big games against the Giants, Cowboys, and Patriots coming up on the docket.

For those of you keeping score at home, I have placed 31 NFL teams into their proper cubby hole, but one remains glaringly absent. The team at the very bottom of the list, the single 0-6 team in the NFL; the Indianapolis Colts. OHHHHHHHHHH boy. What. A. Story. Has one player ever meant more to his team than Peyton Manning? Probably not. He calls the plays, he reads the defense, he makes the decisions. He IS the Colts offense. Is there any doubt that a healthy Manning would have this team at AT LEAST 4-2? And now they have no offense, which is a problem because they also have no defense. When the Colts go 0-16, I want the MVP award given to Peyton Manning. No joke. We have never realized just how good Peyton Manning was. This will cement his legacy, possibly as the greatest QB of all time (certainly up for debate in my mind).

Welcome back aboard Blake Airlines, make yourselves comfortable. I'll be back shortly to take your complimentary drink orders.