There is nothing more deadly than a team that catches fire. Were the Cardinals the best team in baseball this year? Absolutely not. Were the San Francisco Giants the best team last year? No way. Were the Packers the best of the NFL last season? They went 10-6 and BARELY made the playoffs (remember the Buccs and Giants were also 10-6 and didn't make it). Seems more and more these days that the most important thing is just getting into the playoffs and hoping for a run (and hey, if you get HANDED home-field advantage because the MLB is stupid, well that's just gravy).
And that is why I traded Darren McFadden this week. It was a sad occasion. I had to ask him for his powder blue "Newton's Cradle" jersey back (get it? because this is called Newton's Cradle, and I have Cam Newton and he's real young, so he would sleep in a cradle?? I'm witty, dammit). Here's my rationale. I am 2-5. My fantasy team has been ravaged by injuries. If I am going to make a Cardinals-esque run, I need to start winning now. McFadden is on a bye week, and is injured, and by the time he's ready to go I could be 2-7 and that WILL NOT WORK. So I flipped him and Ben Rapethisberger (because I have the greatest rookie QB ever) for Darren Sproles and Steve Johnson. Look I wanted more, ok? I wanted Fred Jackson and Larry Fitzgerald but Edward is a weenie, so what are you gonna do? I gave away 2 players from my bench (this week) and got 2 players who can start for the rest of the year. And I personally like Sproles (but maybe that's because I'm bitter he doesn't play for the Chargers anymore). Anyways, I am guaranteeing a victory this week and I will see you all in the playoffs... hopefully.
But let's get back to the stuff everyone actually cares about. We've got a great slate of NFL games for you, if you just ignore like 11 of the games. The schedule makers spared no expense in making sure that you get to see exciting matchups like New Orleans @ St. Louis and Miami @ New York. As always, I will be giving you bad predictions on each and every NFL showdown. Let's get it on.
Lines courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton:
Colts @ Titans (-8.5)
Blake's Pick: Colts +8.5
As I have said, 62 point games don't happen in the NFL. The Colts let the game get away from them, and the Saints were merciless. But don't forget that the Titans were also embarrassed last week, in a game that actually meant something to them. If the Titans had beaten the Texans last week, they would have assumed first place in the division. I don't believe that they are any good, and Chris Johnson has been an absolute joke so far. Look for a relatively close, low-scoring game. Maybe 17-13 Titans.
Jaguars @ Texans (-9.5)
Blake's Pick: Texans -9.5
We may never see a bigger fluke than what transpired last Monday in Jacksonville. I do not buy it for one second. The Texans are the best team in the AFC South and they will play like it here. It may not be quite a show like their win over Tennessee, but I don't think it's going to be in contention in the 4th quarter. If Blaine Gabbert turns out to be the next Montana, then my apologies to him, but he's garbage. Can't complete 50% of his passes. Less than 6 yards per completion. And in his only NFL win (last week against Baltimore) he was 9 of 20 for 92 yards, like in the whole game, 4 quarters. Texans 28-10.
Vikings @ Panthers (-3.5)
Blake's Pick: Panthers -3.5
I just still think the Vikings stink. And I will continue to back Cam Newton until he gives me a reason not to. Real impressed with his play last week. Because the Panthers run defense is not the scariest bunch around, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Adrian Peterson puts up big numbers in the first half and we see the Vikings ahead. But ultimately little Cammie Wammie twinkle toes (I can make up nicknames too Cousin Sal) will lead Carolina's vaunted pass attack to a double digit victory. Panthers 34-24.
Saints @ Rams (+13)
Blake's Pick: Saints -13
There couldn't be a line high enough to make me pick the Rams. Not after what I said last week about the Saints giving up a backdoor cover. Unless you found a sportsbook somewhere offering the game at Indy +56, you were out of luck on that theory. Here's a trivia question for you (don't check espn.com or you're a cheater): which total is higher? The number of points St. Louis has scored all season or the number of points New Orleans scored last week? The correct answer is.... the Saints!! As we know, they dropped 62 last Sunday night. The Rams have put up 56 points during their 0-6 start. That is an abysmal 9.33 points per game. Also, they have marked just 5 TDs in their first 6 games. If the Rams were somehow able to keep up this pace for an entire horrible season, they would score 149 points, including 13 TDs. If my sources are correct, this would keep them out of the record books for points scored, saved only by the 1991 Indianapolis Colts and their 143 point season. However, they would edge out the same Colts team for lowest number of TDs in a season 13 to 14. These stats are all just a fancy way of saying the Rams may be the second worst team in the history of football. I'll take the Saints 34-7.
Cardinals @ Ravens (-12.5)
Blake's Pick: Ravens -12.5
How often do we see a good team blow a game, and then turn around and destroy some bottom-dweller by 31 points? The Ravens, besides needing to win to keep up with the Steelers, must be so ticked off right now. Especially the defense. If you were say... Ray Lewis, how mad are you that your offense lost you that game? And the last thing you want if you're Kevin Kolb is a pissed off Ravens defense. By the way, how's that Kolb trade working out for the Cardinals? He has found a strange middle ground. He is neither so bad that he warrants being benched nor is he good enough to win more than once every 6 games. He has been spectacularly mediocre. But what is Ken Whisenhunt to do? They have only been blown out in 1 game, Kolb is keeping them competitive. And is John Skelton really going to do anything better? You think this face should be the face of their franchise? I sure hope not because that face is frightening. We know the Ravens offense isn't great, but we also know they aren't THAT bad. They rebound and win 26-10.
Dolphins @ Giants (-10)
Blake's Pick: Dolphins +10
Well the Dolphins have really taken the Suck for Luck to a new level. What they did last week was so brilliantly terrible, so beautifully self-destructive that they must be considered frontrunners for the Stanford gunslinger. Let's look at what transpired. The Denver Broncos come in at 1-5 after purposefully trading away their best receiver and benching their best quarterback. Let's not fool around here, everyone but Tim Tebow was tanking that game (Tebow was trying, he's just bad at football). The Dolphins, however, would have none of it. After they realized that their "Celebration of all things Tebow" plan was not enough, they had to switch gears. After capturing a 15 point lead, they threw the game in the last few minutes, securing an 0-6 record and virtually eliminating the Broncos from the Luck Sweepstakes. The Broncos, now with 2 wins, which might be too many for the first pick anyways, are forced to pursue this whole Tebow ordeal because the fire has been fueled and the city of Denver would revolt if they were to go away from him now. Well played Miami, well played indeed. Oh, the line you ask? Yeah I'm trying out a theory that Eli Manning is physically incapable of covering a spread larger than 7. Giants 30-21.
Redskins @ Bills (-6)
Blake's Pick: Bills -6
It should be noted that this game will be played in Toronto, Canada, which despite popular belief is actually different than Buffalo. But I don't think it makes much of a difference. For some reason, I still kinda like the Bills a little bit. It feels like they are due for a good showing. And I am completely out on the Redskins. When your best players are Rex Grossman and Tim Hightower... and then you bench one and the other tears his ACL, it's probably not your season. Buffalo's defense steps up and Steve Johnson puts up 2 TDs (please) as the Bills roll 27-13.
Lions @ Broncos (+1.5)
Blake's Pick: Lions -1.5
This is absolutely ridiculous. I'm wondering if there is some sort of anti-teaser bet. Where instead of moving the line to Detroit +4.5 and getting a smaller payout, I could move the line to Detroit -7.5 and bet a gajillion dollars on THAT. Look, I may be being a tad harsh on Tebow. They did, after all, win a game in which they trailed 15-0 with 3 minutes left. But here's the problem. These are not the Miami Tankers. These are the 5-2 Lions, who have struggled their last 2 outings, but who are still immensely talented. If Tebow repeats his performance and puts up 24 passing yards through the first 57 minutes of the game, I can guarantee you that they will be losing by much more than 15. And give the Lions some credit for Tebow's sake! (See what I did there?) This line should be at least -3.5. I cannot think of a conceivable scenario in which the Lions don't win by at least a field goal. Detroit douses the Tebowmania flames 38-13.
Patriots @ Steelers (+3)
Blake's Pick: Patriots -3
Finally! This is what we've been waiting for. What's that, NFL? You don't want to make it a night game? ... Are you sure? What? You'd rather put the Chargers and Chiefs on Monday Night? ... Are you joking? ... No I wasn't trying to do your job, I was just thinking out loud. Anyways, there are just some games that you feel like will come down to the last possession and be decided by a field goal. For me, this is not one of them. I certainly think it could be close, and that it could come down to the last possession. But I think in any case, the Patriots win by 7. I think there is going to be a lot more offense than people expect (we know New England's defense isn't great, but Pittsburgh's hasn't been so hot either). I think the game is going to go back and forth. I expect good play from both QBs, as well as noteworthy appearances by Mendenhall and Green-Ellis. But ultimately, I just think the Patriots are better, and the Patriots just know how to get the job done. 38-31.
Browns @ 49ers (-8.5)
Blake's Pick: 49ers -8.5
What's the bigger joke? Peyton Hillis being voted onto the Madden 12 cover? Or.... you know what, I can't even come up with anything to rival that. Congrats Peyton. You know what's really interesting though? I never realized before that the Madden curse not only applies to the cover athlete, but to any athlete sharing their name as well. Weird. I could almost hear Peyton Manning's neck muscles screaming "NOOOOOOOO" when Hillis won the stupid fan vote. As for the 49ers, didn't they clinch the NFC West last week? Jim Harbaugh has that team in very good position. Based solely on the ease of their schedule, they could be looking at a first round bye in the playoffs. They have to play the Giants, Ravens, and Steelers, but that means they should, at the very worst, be 12-4. I don't see anyone else challenging them for the 2 seed (with the 1 seed obviously going to Green Bay at the moment). Also, the Browns just stink. They beat the 0-7 Colts by 8, the 0-6 Dolphins by 1, and the (surprisingly) 2-4 Seahawks by 3. This could be another 48-3 drubbing if the Browns aren't careful. 49ers win 33-14.
Bengals @ Seahawks (+2.5)
Blake's Pick: Seahawks +2.5
After passing entirely on any kind of Seahawks commentary last week, I feel like they deserved at least a little bit this week. Seattle is 2-4, including a 1-3 road record. The thing is that the Seahawks have the single greatest home field advantage in the NFL. They are a different team at home. In their 2 home games so far, they beat Arizona 13-10, and lost by just 2 to Atlanta (and they were within a 61 yard field goal of taking that game). I'm going to give the Seahawks and Clipboard Jesus the edge in this one only because the 12th man at Qwest field is so mighty.
Cowboys @ Eagles (-3.5)
Blake's Pick: Cowboys +3.5
Remember those games I was talking about? THIS is one of those games. If any game this week is going to come down to a last second winning field goal, this is it. The Cowboys are incapable of putting teams away (unless they are St. Louis) and are unwilling to be put away. I do indeed think the winner of this game will have a good shot to go on and take the NFC East, so there's a lot riding on this one. It comes down to the QBs (although that's a rather obvious statement). Both Vick and Romo have been terribly inconsistent. Vick has had up and down performances from game to game, whereas Romo just can't help himself from throwing interceptions at the worst possible time. Whoever screws up the least, leads his team to victory. I'm leaning towards Tony. Cowboys 31-28.
Chargers @ Chiefs (+3.5)
Blake's Pick: Chiefs +3.5
I will admit that I was riled up last week after the Chargers blew the Jets game. But it has been a week and I have had some time to cool off. I am unnervingly calm regarding this game at the present time. I'm sure by kickoff I'll be worked up into a fanatic fervor as always, but for now, I feel a lot better than I did last Sunday. I read an article about Philip Rivers' poor play this season. And strangely it made me feel so much better. Rivers kept saying things like "We aren't playing our best ball right now, but we keep moving forward" and "We lost. It's over. We just have to look forward." For some reason, I believe him. We haven't played well, but we are 4-2 and we will keep moving forward. I have to believe that he has it under control, that he'll figure it out. And as my cousin Noah likes to say: "No one will remember our early season struggles when we are lifting the Lombardi Trophy in February" (or something like that). I think the Chargers win this game, but the Chiefs always play us hard in Arrowhead, so I don't think they win by much. Bolts 27-24.
Bye Week Teams: Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, Oakland, NY Jets, Tampa Bay
Happy Halloween everyone.
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