I would just like to point out that I never claimed to be a prophet (except for that one time with the Patrick Willis thing, still tentative, btw). But if you don't know already, you will soon learn that I am exceptionally bad at picking NFL games, mainly because I pick the Chargers every week and they very rarely make me feel good about myself. So you probably shouldn't take my advice when it comes to the actual games, but hopefully my wit and charm make up for my glaring lack of picking success.
I also incorrectly stated that we would see a definitive confirmation of the good teams, emerging with strong victories, but alas several highly ranked teams fell to lowlier foes this weekend. Let's get down to the action.
The number in parenthesis indicates my pick.
CHI 24, TB 18 (Loss)
What must London think of the NFL? Why don't we send the Patriots and Packers to play over there, or are we purposefully trying to avoid London viewership? What an ugly game. Cutler barely completed 50% of his passes (17/32) for 226 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INTs, but was not to be outdone by Joshy Boy Sporty Spice Tuna Melt Hillshire Farms Jelly Belly Freeman. Twinkle Toes managed to put the ball up 51 times (far more than he should be throwing), completing 29 for 264 yards, 2 (garbage time) TDs, and FOUR interceptions. I think maybe it's time to be a little worried if you're a Buccs fan (or Bill Simmons) because Josh is struggling to get it done against mediocre defenses (Bears are 27th in passing defense). But despite logic, both teams are 4-3. Matt Forte continues to be the only bright spot on that offense, rushing for 145 and 1 TD, and adding 28 yards receiving. Talk about carrying a team. On the other hand, the Buccs have issues at the RB spot. With Blount and Graham both down with injuries, they have turned to Kregg Lumpkin who has 54 career rushing yards and the worst name for an athlete ever.
Redskins @ Panthers (-2.5)
WAS 20, CAR 33 (Win)
This was not a huge statistical game for Cam, as were his first few. He threw only 23 times, completing 18 for 256 yards and 2 TDs (1 rushing). But these are the performances that will win him games. He played safe, mistake free football. He didn't turn the ball over. He didn't panic when the Panthers were unable to convert in the red zone early in the game. Olindo Mare put up 4 field goals (including the first 9 points Carolina scored), and Cam didn't get it into the end zone until the 3rd quarter. But 3 points is 3 points. Those points add up. Good job by Cam keeping his head up and putting up his second NFL win. Oh and by the way, John Beck was decent, I may owe him a bit of an apology. But decent isn't going to win the Redskins any games. Bring back Sexy Rexy.
Chargers (-2) @ Jets
SD 21, NYJ 27 (Loss)
I debated about whether or not I should even bother providing analysis for this game. But this is my blog and you are gonna listen to my complaining. Firstly, I was so pleased with the Chargers first half performance. You have to understand that when we blow games, it usually happens in the first half. We waste red zone possessions. We get punts blocked. We get two consecutive punts blocked. And when we finally get it going, we are down by 24 and it's too late. Not this time. We had the big defensive TD right off the bat. Then after one three-and-out, we had two long and grinding TD drives in the second quarter and we took a beautiful 21-10 lead into the half. At this point my 31-10 prediction was looking mighty fine. We came out a little flat in the 3rd quarter, that's ok, it happens. The Jets took away some of our passing game, that's ok, that's what they do. They cut the lead to 21-17 as we entered the 4th. Not so confident now, but still leading. As the Chargers moved the ball into Jets territory, I was sure we were gonna score and go up 28-17. I was positive. 3rd and 5 at the NYJ 25. Rivers threw an admittedly bad pass a little behind Vincent Jackson, but it took a wholly unlucky bounce off his shoulder into the waiting arms of Darelle Revis, who scampered all the way back to the Chargers 19. And the game was over. From 100% to 0% in one play. I knew we had lost. If that ball was an inch in either direction, it would have been a catch or an incompletion. At the very worst, we get a field goal to go up 24-17. That pick crushed us. We folded like Phil Ivey with a 3,7 offsuit. Sanchez found Burress for a third time in the end zone, and I almost turned the game off. Rivers went on to throw a 2nd interception, this one undoubtedly his fault. And then led the most pathetic 2-minute drill you will ever see in your life. I guess worse meltdowns have happened (see 2011 MLB Wild Card Races) but the entire team was demoralized and you could tell. I understand that bad games happen. I understand you can't win every week. But I have no faith left that this current Chargers team can get it done. I have no faith in Norv Turner. Zero. I have no faith that Rivers and our offense can respond to adversity (which is something I never thought I would say, but is sadly true). I have no faith that we can beat teams who are better than us, because we always seem to find ways to lose to the ones that aren't. That 4-2 next to our name means very little right now. Even though we are in first place, we are on the brink. We have a HUGE game against the Chiefs on Monday Night next week, and if we blow it, this whole season unravels. I have no doubt. Lastly, Rex Ryan is a stinky a-hole.
Seahawks (+3) @ Browns
SEA 3, CLE 6 (Push)
Nailed it!
Texans (+3) @ Titans
HOU 41, TEN 7 (Win)
HA! I was finally on the right side with these pesky Texans. It just seemed so improbable for them to let this year, of all years, get away from them. If they ever make a playoff run, its got to be now. The Texans are the much more talented team here, and they finally played like it. Arian Foster had a field day, with 234 all purpose yards and 3 TDs. And with the way the Texans defense showed up, Schaub could've gone 0/23 with 3 INTs and it wouldn't have made a difference. Matt Hasselbeck was benched in favor of Jake Locker late in the game (which we all knew was coming) and Chris Johnson had just 18 yards on 10 attempts (which is only ok if you're Tim Tebow, but OH HO HO we will get to him). This division is Houston's for the takings, and I am 100% on the Texans 2011 division champion bandwagon.
Broncos (+1.5) @ Dolphins
DEN 18, MIA 15 (Win)
And we have arrived. Before anything else, I would like to retell a quick story for you all. As I watched and waited for my beloved Chargers to implode, I kept an eager eye on the Broncos-Dolphins game. Unfortunately, I couldn't find a good stream, so I was resigned to tracking stats online. I believe we were in the 3rd quarter, with the score sitting at 6-0 Miami. I was on the phone with my girlfriend Jessica, who thinks it's funny to root for Tebow simply because it irks me to no end. I brought up the fact that Timmy had only thrown for 24 passing yards (which was true for most of the game) and was making a complete fool of himself out there. She replied "God will not shit on Tim Tebow," which will probably turn out to be the quote of our lifetimes as he goes on to win every Superbowl for the next 36 years. And as the fates would have it, she was right. God simply refused to shit on Tim Tebow on that day. That being said, oh my lord he was awful. Let me break down his performance for you. In the first quarter, he completed a 7 yard pass to Eddie Royal... on a 3rd and 10 (punting the next play). Then approximately 5 minutes later, he completed a 1 yard pass to Knowshon Moreno on a 2nd and 12 (ultimately resulting in a missed field goal). Fast-forwarding to the 2nd quarter, around the 14-minute mark, he completed a 16 yard pass to full back Spencer Larsen, which marked their first passing first down of the game. And for those who know the ancient art of addition, that puts us at 24 passing yards. His next completion came with about 7:30 minutes left IN THE FOURTH QUARTER. He went an astonishing 36:30 of game time without a completion. After his fourth completion of the game, he threw 2 more incompletions and took, what I believe at the time, was his fifth sack of the game. But when he got the ball back with 5 minutes left and a 15-point deficit, he was unstoppable. The weird thing is that his passes weren't any prettier and he didn't look at all more comfortable, but for some reason, his receivers were finding their way under his throws. We all know the rest of the story. The Broncos score 15 points in 5 minutes, aided by an unlikely onside kick recovery. And get extremely lucky in OT (in which, I would like to point out, Tebow did not complete a single pass) when the Dolphins fumbled in their own territory to set up the winning field goal. Despite their 2-4 record, the Broncos must be the luckiest team in the NFL, and they have stats for that now, so I'm gonna find out. I suppose we have just reached the point where stats like passing yards and completions don't matter for QBs anymore, as long as you keep fighting good things will happen. Oh is that so Tebow? Let's see you keep fighting when you have 24 passing yards next week and its 52-0 Detroit in the 4th quarter. Let's see your God save you then.
Falcons @ Lions (-3)
ATL 23, DET 16 (Loss)
The only thing the Lions did right in this game was winning the coin toss. Holy cow what happened to their offense? Stafford completed only 15 of 32 attempts and pulled in with only 183 yards and 1 TD. The Lions were 1-12 on third downs. And they struggled to establish a run game without Jahvid Best. Although Maurice Morris' average appears enticing (5.6 yards per rush) going for 50 yards on 9 carries, he broke 1 carry for 31 yards, meaning that he rammed himself into the offensive line 8 times for a total of 19 yards otherwise. As for the Falcons, Matt Ryan tried his best to lose the game, throwing 2 INTs and faking an injury for a little while. But the Lions weren't having it, putting up easily their worst offensive display of the season. Both teams are playing below expectations at this point in the season and you have to worry about the Lions who have struggled and lost their past 2.
Chiefs @ Raiders (-4)
KC 28, OAK 0 (Loss)
Ummm, I don't know what to say. I guess my only defense is that Darren McFadden missed almost the entire game with a foot injury, and clearly neither Kyle Boller nor Carson Palmer were ready to start this game, which makes me and my Rich Gannon joke look a little foolish... I really don't know what happened. Maybe the AFC just won't have a 6 seed this year. With the way Baltimore played, maybe they just won't have wild cards at all. Honestly, it is going to be hard enough to find teams willing to win the West and South, maybe just default the Patriots to the Superbowl. Last note: is it weird that I am now more scared of the Chiefs than the Raiders? Tell me we aren't gonna do the whole Chiefs thing again....
Steelers (-3.5) @ Cardinals
PIT 32, ARI 20 (Win)
I think the Steelers are going to win the AFC North. Finally started to put it together. Their offensive line certainly seems to be improved, as Big Ben seemed to have a lot of time back there, compiling 361 yards, 3 TDs and a 121.8 QB rating. He was sacked twice, but I think if you're Ben Roethlisberger you can deal with that. The most surprising thing about the Steelers is their lack of takeaways. Did anyone else see the stat during the Saints game? I thought it said the the Steelers were the worst team in the league with TWO takeaways through 7 games. Well that's not true... because they have 3. Regardless, I would not have guessed this Steelers defense (ranked 1st against the pass) to be in the cellar of the turnover department. That is just historically bad luck. That won't last.
Rams @ Cowboys (-12)
STL 7, DAL 34 (Win)
So, DeMarco Murray huh? Where has he been and why the hell should I care about Felix whats-his-face anymore? I know it was the Rams defense, but people don't just run for 253 yards in NFL games. That marks the 9th most rushing yards in a game in NFL history, which is absurd because this guy started the season on the bench. And most importantly, he didn't even give Romo the chance to sabotage the game, it was over before it began. My apologies to Felix Jones, but if that doesn't secure Murray the starting position, (at least for now) I don't know what does.
Packers (-9) @ Vikings
GB 33, MIN 27 (Loss)
Let's not get excited here. The headline on the game recap reads "Aaron Rodgers, Packers hold off Christian Ponder, Vikes to stay undefeated." The article then goes on to praise Ponder and his "fearless" performance. Oh is that right? The Packers had to hold off Ponder and his fearless 40.63% completion rate (13/32)? They had to escape from his gritty 2 INTs? Calm down ESPN. I think we all need to remember that Adrian Peterson is still the best RB in the league, and does still play for Minnesota. Maybe he and his 175 yards on 24 carries should earn the "fearless" moniker. This game was never really in doubt. The Packers came out and won, just like they always do. It was a little closer than we expected but we all know the Packers defense isn't world class, just good enough. And that's what they were on Sunday. Good enough.
Colts (+14) @ Saints
IND 7, NO 62 (Loss)
Umm...... whoops? I don't know what to say here. Just seems uncalled for. NFL teams don't score 62 points these days, and unless the other team has 55, I don't really see why they should. I guess the Saints had a point to prove and Brees just wouldn't stop throwing the ball. An apology is owed to the St. Louis Rams, whom last Saturday I called the worst team in football. Clearly that title belongs to the Indianapolis Colts. And it's not even close.
Ravens (-7.5) @ Jaguars
BAL 7, JAX 12 (Loss)
Do you guys remember what I said about the Ravens after last season? If you don't take a look here (scroll down to number 7). Nothing has changed. I guess the Jaguars defense isn't terrible, but the Ravens have no business being in a close game with the Jags, let alone LOSING to them. The Ravens are probably still a playoff team, by default, but that offense has to be a major concern. Maybe Flacco's not your guy. Maybe Ray Rice can only put you on his tiny back for so long. But you better figure it out John Harbaugh, because your schedule is only getting tougher and its gonna be an awkward Christmas dinner if Jim's team is better than yours.
Week Record: 5-7-1
Check back later this week for Week 8 predictions and commentary. And as always, thanks for reading.
No comments:
Post a Comment