As promised, I will be offering you all an apology for my abysmal performance in last week's selections, as well as offering up more terrible suggestions for week 11. Let's take a look-see.
Week 10 Picks:
Raiders @ Chargers (-7)
OAK 24, SD 17 (Loss)
I already lamented this very poor choice at the beginning of the week 10 post. Don't wanna talk about it ever again.
Steelers @ Bengals (+3)
PIT 24, CIN 17 (Loss)
I stand by this pick. The Bengals played them hard, and it is clear that their defense is a lot better than we thought. After falling behind 14-0 in the first quarter the Bengals fought back and gave the Red Rifle a chance to lead a game-tying drive in the closing minutes. Unfortunately, Dalton threw a pick from the Steelers 25 yard line that sealed the defeat. We have to remember he's a rookie and that he'll fix those mistakes as he progresses. Also, don't discount how big of a win this is for the Steelers. It is a division road game victory (don't forget they lost both games to Baltimore already) and division record could play a factor in the coming weeks.
Broncos (+3) @ Chiefs
DEN 17, KC 10 (Win)
Well we knew the Chiefs were bad, but did we know they were "give up two completions all game and still lose" bad? I think you can write the Chiefs out, with Cassel out indefinitely now. As for Timmy Timmy Cocoa Puffs, 2 of 8, really? It's like you're taunting us. Are you actually trying? Are you really left-handed? Clue me in, Tim. The only time we should see a 2/8 QB stat line is if the game is being played in a tornado, or if Tyler Palko is on the field. No exceptions. Amid all the Tebowmania (or lack thereof) the Broncos have a silently fantastic run game. I don't know what makes Willis McGahee and Lance Ball a winning combination, but its working in Denver. And we all knew Tebow could run. Light bulb: Why can't Orton play QB and Tebow play FB? Just putting it out there.
Jaguars @ Colts (+3)
JAC 17, IND 3 (Loss)
I'm just not going to pick the Colts any more.
Bills (+5) @ Cowboys
DAL 44, BUF 7 (Loss)
Well fine Buffalo, it only took you 8 weeks to gain my trust, and in just two games you have managed to completely destroy it. The Bills, at one time 5-2, have dropped to 5-4 and I only see it getting worse from here. They don't have a particularly difficult schedule but their glaring problems have been exposed (pretty much their entire defense and Ryan Fitzpatrick getting paid WAY too much WAY too early). On the other hand, the Cowboys are on the upswing. DeMarco Murray is absolutely enthralling (guy wasn't drafted til round 3, 71st overall) and the way they are going right now, Tony Romo won't have a chance to screw anything up until he's asked to hold for a field goal in the playoffs. Dallas still plays New York twice and Dallas might need to win both to make up ground on the Giants.
Texans @ Buccaneers (+3)
HOU 37, TB 9 (Loss)
I don't care who is playing QB, my Houston Texans are going all the way this year. Honestly, is Matt Schaub that big of a deal? If I had to pick three current NFL QBs who I wouldn't want playing for me in a pressure situation, they would be John Beck, Curtis Painter, and Matt Schaub. All the Texans need for their last 6 games is a game manager who can hand the ball off and throw screens and slants. And let's give Leinart a chance, maybe he's not so bad. Oh and I'm done with Tampa Bay, i think they just suck. No more Joshy Woshy, its over.
Titans @ Panthers (-3)
TEN 30, CAR 3 (Loss)
I think I'm done picking the Panthers too. As much as I like Cam Newton, the fact remains that they are 2-7 and clearly need help in every position that isn't QB. And when Cam doesn't have a great game (this was by far his worst) that's when you get 30-3 losses. I don't know what to make of Tennessee. Somehow they are 5-4, which makes me sick to my stomach. Chris Johnson finally came alive in this game but Carolina's defense is downright awful, so I wouldn't get too excited.
Redskins @ Dolphins (-3.5)
MIA 20, WAS 9 (Win)
Washington has reached the "Indianapolis" level for me, I will bet against them every week until they prove that they have even the slightest bit of competency. I didn't even realize that Beck had lost the starting job and gave it back to Grossman, who played just as poorly in Miami. It may have been Beck wearing Grossman's jersey by mistake. Who cares? It is a crime that the Redskins have 3 wins, because they are the 2nd worst team in football right now and I don't know how much I favor them over the Indianapolis TAINTers. And don't get too excited about Miami. They beat the Chiefs and Redskins, two of the worst five teams in the league. They may be able to take care of a Bills team in free fall, but they stand no chance against Dallas, New England, and New York Jets still left on the schedule.
Saints (PK) @ Falcons
NO 26, ATL 23 (Win)
I don't care what the statistics say, you punt the ball on 4th down in overtime inside your own 30. I don't care if it's 4th and inches or 4th and 56, you punt the ball. Do you decrease your chances of losing by punting? Sure. But the reward is not worth the risk. Even if you convert, you now have 1st and 10 on your 30, what if you go 3 and out from there? And it really is a crap shoot on converting that 4th down. Everyone knows you're gonna run it up the middle and it comes down to which line gets the better push on one particular play. Not worth it. Way to go Mike Smith, kiss your season goodbye.
Lions (+2.5) @ Bears
CHI 37, DET 13 (Loss)
Hmmm, it is possible that I was wrong about Chicago. It seems to me that in this moment they are really really good. Like ten times better than last year (and that team went to the NFC Championship game). They are 6-3 (although I don't remember them winning six games) with their only loses @ NO, @ DET, and vs GB. They haven't faced a very difficult schedule otherwise, but I think as long as they get past the Chargers this weekend (which I fully expect them to do) it is smooth sailing. This Sunday's game marks the first of four consecutive games against AFC West teams for Chicago. If you can do basic math, you'll realize that's all the AFC West teams. The Bears are going to rip through the terrible division like a California wildfire. And then they play Seattle. Who made this schedule? It is very likely that the Bears are 11-3 heading into a week 16 matchup against the Packers in Green Bay, who will either be chasing perfection or trying to lock up the 1 seed with one loss (I can only imagine them losing to the Giants in week 13). Now that is a Sunday Night game. Well done, NBC.
Rams (+2.5) @ Browns
STL 13, CLE 12 (Win)
Still wondering if anyone in the world cares...
Cardinals (+13.5) @ Eagles
ARI 21, PHI 17 (Win)
Well Eagles fans, if you were waiting for rock bottom, I think we're there. If its any consolation, Michael Vick played most of that game with like 14 dislocated ribs, DeSean Jackson was benched because he missed 15 minutes of a special teams practice, and LeSean McCoy is the best RB in the league playing for a 3-6 team. Does that make you feel any better? No?... Good.
Ravens (-6.5) @ Seahawks
SEA 22, BAL 17 (Loss)
What the hell is wrong with Baltimore? One week they look like Superbowl contenders, the next week they look like they the Washington Redskins (which I have decided is the polar opposite a Superbowl contender). I don't trust Joe Flacco. I never have and until he gives me a reason to, I never will. Their receivers are no good, Ray Rice and the running game disappears for hours at a time (5 carries for 27 yards against SEA), and their kick returner fumbled twice. Those are demoralizing turnovers. You know what that sounds like to me? The 2010 San Diego Chargers. You better get it together Baltimore. And I still refuse to give the Seahawks any analysis time.
Giants (+3.5) @ 49ers
SF 27, NYG 20 (Loss)
I stand by this pick too. The Giants drove down the field in the closing minutes but stalled on the SF 10 yard line. The game could have easily gone to OT and I still like the Giants to win the East. This game was probably a preview of the 2 and 4 seeds in the NFC playoffs.
Patriots @ Jets (-1.5)
NE 37, NYJ 16 (Loss)
In my defense, at around 5:25 on Sunday I was overcome with an extreme confidence that New England would win. My cousin can confirm this, as I texted him "new england WILL win this game" just before the game started. So I really should've had this game and a 7-9 week but oh well. Big win on the road for the Pats. However, that defense will not hold up throughout the playoffs.
Vikings @ Packers (-13)
GB 45, MIN 7 (Win)
16-0.
Weekly Record: 6-10
Overall Record: 27-29-1
Moving right along. After that enticing full-16 game slate last week, we return to 14 games as the Colts, Steelers, Texans, and Saints have byes. Why do you taunt me like that NFL? And make up your mind about how many teams have byes each week. Sometimes its 4, sometimes its 6. What was wrong with having 8 bye weeks with 4 teams each? Let me be commissioner, it seems so simple. Here are the week 11 matchups:
Jets @ Broncos (+6)
Blake's Pick: NYJ -6
Already covered it in the last post...... And I hate my life.
Titans @ Falcons (-6)
Blake's Pick: TEN +6
This is really more of a pick against Atlanta, than a pick for the Titans. I'm still waiting for the chance to write them off, cuz they suck. I think Tennessee might be the better team, as weird as that seems. They don't have that many tough games left so don't be surprised to see them in the playoff chase. TEN 23, ATL 20.
Bills @ Dolphins (-2)
Blake's Pick: BUF +2
I know that the Bills are starting to fall apart but I just don't like the Dolphins being favorites. I think the Bills might put in one more strong showing (especially with Fred Jackson on the ground) before eventually fading into a 7-9 finsh. BUF 28, MIA 9.
Bengals @ Ravens (-7)
Blake's Pick: CIN +7
I refuse to go away from the Bengals. I have absolutely no faith in the Ravens and I think even if they win, it won't be by much. The Bengals defense is good enough to stop Flacco (a la Jacksonville) and I wouldn't be surprised if Cincy pulled it out. I have to give the slight edge however to Baltimore's veteran defense against Cincinnati's inexperienced offense. BAL 20, CIN 16.
Jaguars @ Browns (Pick)
Blake's Pick: JAC to win
Haven't these 2 teams played like 4 times this season? Why does it seem like these teams are always playing other crappy teams? I'm taking the Jags because Colt McCoy sucks and hopefully they'll just give MJD the ball 40 times. JAC 14, CLE 6
Raiders @ Vikings (+1)
Blake's Pick: OAK -1
I realize that the Raiders aren't the most consistent team ever, but I think their running game is strong enough (with or without McFadden) to put away teams like Minnesota. I also realize that Green Bay is by far the best team in football, but what a pathetic showing from the Vikings in that game. This line should be higher, especially after the way these teams played last week. OAK 24, MIN 10.
Panthers @ Lions (-7)
Blake's Pick: DET -7
I have been scorned by Carolina too many times. The Lions desperately need a win here at home and it will only be so long before the 2-7 Panthers team just gives up entirely. Look for Matt Stafford to get back on track against a porous Panthers defense. DET 31, CAR 14.
Buccaneers @ Packers (-14)
Blake's Pick: GB -14
I won't pick against the 16-0 Packers until they fail to cover one of these gigantic spreads.
Cowboys @ Redskins (+7)
Blake's Pick: DAL -7
By the same token, I will pick against the Redskins until they cover a spread.
Cardinals @ 49ers (-9.5)
Blake's Pick: ARI +9.5
The 49ers don't blow people out. Only 3 of their 8 wins have been by more than 10 points, and those were against Seattle, Tampa Bay, and Cleveland. Likewise, the Cardinals have only lost 2 games by 10 points or more, coming against Minnesota and Pittsburgh. And clearly the Cardinals have some fight in them, playing the Ravens and Giants very close and outright beating the Eagles. I don't expect a Cardinals victory, but a touchdown or less should separate these teams. SF 20, ARI 16.
Seahawks @ Rams (-2)
Blake's Pick: STL -2
Seahawks can't play on the road.
Chargers @ Bears (-3.5)
Blake's Pick: CHI -3.5
This line should probably be a little bit higher. The Chargers haven't done anything in the past month that makes me think we can keep up in this game. Meanwhile, in the past month the Bears are 4-0, outscoring their opponents 130-65. The game won't get out of hand, only because the Chargers don't do that. I can't remember the last time we were legitimately blown out in a game. But with the ways the Bears are playing on defense, and with the ever-threatening Devin Hester, you have to think the Bears should win by a TD. CHI 28, SD 21.
Eagles @ Giants (-6.5)
Blake's Pick: NYG -6.5
This feels like a classic letdown game for Eli and the Giants. They are riding high, leading the division. The Eagles come in beat up, fully in the midst of a downward spiral, simply unable to bring things together. Not to mention, the Eagles HAVE to win out at this point. The 7th loss will be the one that puts them out of the playoffs. 9-7 does not make the playoffs in the NFC this year. The Bears are too good and someone else (Dallas? Detroit?) will make it to 10-6. It feels like it could be the Dallas Sunday night game all over. HOWEVER... However.... The Eagles just announced that Vince Young will be starting so I'll take the Giants. NYG 35, PHI 17.
Chiefs @ Patriots (-14.5)
Blake's Pick: NE -14.5
Without Cassel and Charles, Kansas City has to be one of the 3 worst teams in the NFL. Indy has that number 1 spot locked up this year, but maybe they compete with Washington for the number 2. Even with the makeshift defense New England is gonna send out there, you would have to give me 25 points to take the Chiefs. At least. NE 38, KC 10.
I wanted to throw in a few extra attraction in this post, but as it is now 12:54 AM Sunday morning, it appears I have run out of time. Look for my playoff picture post coming out in the next few weeks, as well as my Top 42 NFL Right Tackles post in the near future. Ask and ye shall receive. Sports Guy out (screw copyrights).
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