I have been away from my blog for a spell. I don't think anyone can blame me seeing as all I had to work with was the Padres, whom I have NOT been keeping up with, incidentally. I'm proud to say I've been Friar free for nearly 2 months. Anyways, I have returned because of one thing and one thing only: NFL football.
It is, undoubtedly, the greatest thing on the face of the earth (besides Megan Fox) and it begins TONIGHT. In celebration of the 2009 season, I will be laying out the entire NFL for you in my next few posts (today will be the AFC North and South because those are the divisions represented in tonight's opening game). I'll cover all 31 NFL teams, and I'll throw in a bit about the Detroit Lions, too. I will go division by division and walk you through each squad, touching on impact players and giving you my two cents worth about their chances. Let's get started, shall we?
AFC North:
I see this division as a two-horse race that will remain extremely close right down to the wire. But I believe Pittsburgh will, once again, edge out Baltimore. The Bengals and Browns will not have enough to compete.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
Predicted Finish: (12-4)
There aren't many teams in the league that are better than the Pittsburgh Steelers. It's just a fact. They don't face a difficult schedule, seeing as they get Cincinnati and Cleveland two times each, as well as the floundering AFC West for another 4 games. That 12-4 record I predicted even allows room for some offensive stagnation that may occur. But I think Big Ben can produce enough, coupled with that monstrous defense, to win the division again.
Impact Player: Willie Parker
We know the defense is fantastic. We have seen enough of Roethlisberger to know that he can get the job done. Hines Ward is still going strong and Santonio Holmes is emerging as a go-to guy down the field. The only thing I see as unsure about the 09 Steelers is Willie Parker. Parker will be turning 29 this season and it seems as though he is not quite as fast as he used to be. Due to injuries, he only managed 791 yards and 5 TDs in 2008. The Steelers have always been a heavily run-oriented team, and they will need more out of Parker this season. If he cannot produce, the torch is passed to Rashard Mendenhall, who possesses only 19 carries of NFL experience. Without Parker, the Steelers may find themselves turning more to the pass than ever before, and that is not the type of game Pittsburgh wants to play.
Chances of Winning Division: Very Good
Unless they are unable to take either of their games against Baltimore, they should take first place once again. The only way they don't win is if they drop both games to Baltimore or lose to a team or two who they should beat handily (Oakland, Cleveland, etc.), and I really can't see either of those happening.
2. Baltimore Ravens (Wild Card)
Predicted Finish (11-5)
Despite being in the same division as the Steelers, the Ravens schedule looks considerably more difficult. Yes they have Cincy (2), Cleveland (2), and the AFC West for 8 games, but they drew New England and Indy as the two extra teams on their schedule (meaning that they don't play the AFC East or South, just those 2 teams). That's just terrible luck right there. Just like the Steelers, the Ravens may face offensive struggles, what with their young starting QB and RB. And of course, they have to take on the world champions twice, so I have them coming in second with 11 wins, and a very good shot at a wild card.
Impact Player: Joe Flacco
If this team wants to contend, it cannot be the defense's team, if you catch my drift. For the past decade or so, the Ravens have put most of their chances in the hands of their defense. They need more offense to keep up with Pittsburgh. This needs to be Flacco's team and he needs to command respect from NFL defenses. If Flacco can't get the passing game going, the run game will stall too, and the defense will not be able to score enough for them. I won't say Flacco will have a sophomore slump, but I don't see him playing well enough to beat the Steelers.
Chances of Winning Division: Decent at Best
The Ravens are a very good, hard-working team. They will have success this year, due mainly to their defense. However, they would need, for all intents and purposes, to go 6-0 in the division to take the crown. I just don't feel like they are on the same level as the Steelers. They would need a little more offensive firepower to overcome the Black and Gold defense. Look for the Ravens as a solid Wild Card team.
3. Cincinnati Bengals
Predicted Finish: (7-9)
The only reason I didn't put the Bengals in last is pure offensive talent. A few years ago, we saw fireworks as a healthy Palmer fired the ball all over the place. Chad... *sigh* Ochocinco and T.J. Houshmandzadeh were arguably the best WR tandem in football. Then lightning struck as Palmer went down in the playoffs. They haven't been the same since. Housh has moved on to Seattle, no doubt having run out of tolerance for Chad's tomfoolery. And the defense, which was decent at best, has fallen to pieces. But now, Palmer is back, and even though he appears idiotic, and possesses only a rudimentary knowledge of the Spanish language (Ochocinco = eight five, not eighty-five), Chad is still a good wideout.
Impact Player: Carson Palmer
We have seen what happens to this team when Palmer is out. Utter chaos. People running around without a clue as to what they are doing. Like the WNBA. The entire fate of the team rests on Palmer's shoulder. The defense is not going to win any games for them, and I just checked with my Magic 8 Ball as to the competence of the running game. It told me the outlook is bleak.
Chances of Winning Division: Terrible
The Bengals will improve their performance this year, simply with the reinstatement of Carson Palmer. If he stays healthy, I'll give them a 2% chance to shock the world and take down Pittsburgh. Without him, the chances are less than 0%, can I do a negative percentage? Is that possible?
4. Cleveland Browns
Predicted Finish: (6-10)
In previous Off-seasons, people have called the Browns the "sexy pick" in the AFC North. What the hell is that supposed to mean? I can't find anything remotely sexy about the Cleveland Browns (unless you count the cheerleaders, and even they have a somewhat defeated air about them). Jamal Lewis is approaching the end of his career and the defense is simply dreadful. Quinn may be able to find some success throwing to Braylon Edwards, but besides that, the offense is very limited.
Impact Player: Brady Quinn
We just found out, despite Eric Mangini's best efforts, that Brady Quinn will be starting at quarterback for the Browns. I have nothing against Quinn, he seems like a very charming young man. But is he ready? I went back to my Magic 8 Ball and asked. It told me to ask again later... which I am going to take as a "no". Nevertheless, the Browns are seriously lacking in team leadership and maybe Brady Quinn can be that leader they so desperately need (this year, however, I would just let him get his feet underneath him before piling on that kind of pressure. Perhaps in the near future).
Chances of Winning Division: Little to None
The Browns are not going to win the AFC North
AFC South
This division is giving me some grief. I was highly impressed by the Titans last year, but I do not see another 13-3 season in them. Also, I believe greatly in the power of Peyton. Houston will be competetive, but I think they just need one more year to really hit their stride. Jacksonville continues its downward spiral with another last-place finish.
1. Indianapolis Colts
Predicted Finish: (12-4)
I feel like the Colts have the talent and ability to win every division game (perhaps with the exception of the @TEN game). They get to beat up on the weak NFC North, and they should beat 3 out of the 4 AFC East teams (New England being the challenge). The offense should be back on track, and the defense, lead by Dwight Freeney, should create enough pressure to knock off an offensively weak Tennessee team.
Impact Player: Joseph Addai
The Joseph Addai situation is not unlike that of Willie Parker. Although not quite as far into his career as Parker, Addai seemed to slow considerably last year. It was clear to me that the Colts just didn't have the confidence last year. Their roster has not changed noticeably over the past few years and yet, they seemed like a different team than we are used to seeing with horseshoes on their heads. Peyton Manning is a top class quarterback and he has dangerous weapons in both Reggie Wayne and an emerging Anthony Gonzalez. The Colts will need a stable running game to take on a smash mouth Tennessee defense.
Chances of Winning Division: Pretty Good
If the Colts can take one game from the Titans, they should be able to hold them off altogether. I don't see them having problems with the Texans or Jaguars, both of whom match up better against Tennessee. They also have a key match up with New England, which could determine the direction of their season. That game is shaping up to be one of those classic NE-IND, Brady-Manning games. I would give the slight edge to the Pats in that game, but to the Colts in the division.
2. Tennessee Titans (Wild Card)
Predicted Finish: (11-5)
I'm not saying that last year was a fluke, but the Titans won't go 13-3 again in 2009. They shot out of the gate and ran all over the opposition. However, their schedule wasn't easy like Sunday morning... It was easier. Teams will be better prepared for the Smash and Dash run attack. Also, Albert Haynesworth, the best defensive player in the division, if not the league, is gone. So the front 7 will be a little less scary this time around. The defense is still top 5, but the offense will not experience such success on the ground and Collins will be forced to throw more, leading to more pressure on the shoulders of a weak receiving core.
Impact Player: Justin Gage
Justin Gage is really the closest thing to a number 1 receiver on the Titans roster. They acquired Nate Washington to aid a lackluster air attack, but he is not much of a deep threat. Like I said, the Titans will most likely be forced to throw more often than not, and Gage will need to step up in order for the Titans to make a run at the Colts. I am not convinced that Gage has the ability to be a real number one, but he's really all they've got.
Chances of Winning Division: Not Too Shabby
It's not as though the Colts are so far ahead that the Titans have no chance at catching them no matter what they do. It's quite the opposite actually. The Titans have young talent all over the field (with the exception of 84-year-old Kerry Collins at QB) and they can set a precedent of dominance if they can put another good season together. However, they will need a lot of offense to overtake the Colts this season. Collins, Gage, and Johnson will all have to contribute largely. And they will need to take care of business in the division (especially the 2 games against Indianapolis). This race will be close, but I'm giving the slight edge to the Colts right now.
3. Houston Texans
Predicted Finish: (9-7)
The 2009 Houston Texans look like a very good team to me. Matt Schaub showed us he has the ability to be a winning QB in the league. Andre Johnson is a top 3 WR, perhaps behind only Larry Fitzgerald, and Steve Slaton had a great rookie season, leading all rookies in rushing yards. Mario Williams anchors a stable defense (and I believe its about time for those who berated the Texans for passing on Reggie Bush to shut their mouths). The Texans can compete with the Titans, but I feel the Colts are just a bit out of their reach.
Impact Player: Steve Slaton
No one is a bigger Steve Slaton fan than myself. Is it because I had him in my fantasy league last year? Not really. Is it because I have him in my fantasy league again this year? Probably. Anyways, Steve Slaton is going to be an integral part of the Texans offense. We know Schaub can throw and Andre Johnson can catch. But can Steve Slaton repeat his awesome rookie performance? I certainly hope so. He will need a monster year to lead that offense ahead of Indy and Tennessee.
Chances of Winning Division: Close, But No Cigar
I could write for hours about the trio of good teams in this division, and the possible scenarios of the final standings. So let me be quick and to the point about the Texans. If the Texans won the division, I would be surprised, but not shocked.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
Predicted Finish: (7-9)
I always think of the Jaguars as a team that is always kinda... just there. They are not terrible, they are not fantastic. The only flashy player they have is Maurice Jones-Drew at the RB position. They never have much in the way of a pass offense, although they did add Torry Holt this year. However, the Jaguars are not on the same level as the rest of this tough division. They will be able to compete against most teams, but I foresee them losing a handful of close games., simply because of a lack of big playmakers. Also, the defense is nothing special. The Jaguars just aren't special, let's face it.
Impact Player: Maurice Jones-Drew
We know what David Garrard is. He is someone who manages the game at QB. He doesn't take a lot of risks, but on the other hand, he throws very few interceptions. He reminds me of Brad Johnson of Tampa Bay Buccaneers fame, who rode his way to a Superbowl victory on the tailcoats of a fantastic defense. The only difference is that Garrard doesn't have a fantastic defense to rely on. Most of the workload is going to land on Maurice Jones-Drew, a great talent stuffed into a very small package. He has certainly shown that he has the ability to change games, but this year he is really alone at RB. Fred Taylor, future Hall of Famer, is gone and I don't even know who their backup RB is.
Chances of Winning Division: Saddening
If the Jaguars won the division, I would be shocked.
Coming Soon: AFC East and West
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