San Diego (-4.5) over KANSAS CITY
We gotta have this one. We never play well @KC, they always seem to surprise us. That cannot happen this time. We need to prepare for a scrappy team that is going to keep it close. It is very possible that we might win, but not cover, but I refuse to pick the Chiefs. The thought of another loss is just too much right now.
Indianapolis (-13.5) over ST. LOUIS
If Peyton Manning doesn't score 50 points for me this week, I am going to be outraged. There is no reason he shouldn't throw at least 5 TDs against the Rams defense. I recommend starting any and all Colts offense players you have. This game should be decided by half time. And if I catch so much as a glimpse of Jim Sorgi, I am going to put my foot through the TV. The Patriots didn't slow down last week, why should the Colts?
Chicago (+1.5) over CINCINNATI
So I was listening to old Bill Simmons podcasts this week (when I say "old", I mean from like 2 months ago) and something I heard greatly surprised me. He was talking with some guy who works for the Sports Almanac online or something like that. Obviously, I wasn't paying attention to the details, so don't quote me on this. Anyways, they talked about how the Chargers, Colts, and Patriots were the big 3 in the AFC (2 out of 3 ain't bad). Yada yada, everyone knew that. But then they brought up the NFC. The guy said that not only were the Bears the number 1 projected team in the conference, they were the number 1 team in the whole league. Obviously they did not anticipate losing Urlacher for the entire season, which is a tremendous blow to that defense. However, I can see why the Bears are an appealing choice. A good hard-throwing QB (which they have not had in years), a top 5 ranked RB, and plenty of young talent at the WR position. I think they are better than people think.
Green Bay (-8.5) over CLEVELAND
I thought about this as a potential Ballsy pick of the Week candidate, but then I remembered that the Browns are awful. Despite the fact that the Packers have won convincingly against bad teams (STL, DET), won in a close a game against CHI, and lost only 2 close games to good opponents (CIN, MIN), they just don't seem to have that spark that everyone (including myself) anticipated. They came out hot after the bye week and destroyed the Lions sans Stafford and Johnson, and I think that will set them off on a little run here. Easy opponent in Cleveland to stoke the fire, they should head into a big home game against Minnesota week 8 firing on all cylinders.
Minnesota (+5) over PITTSBURGH
Best game of the week right here. I like the Vikings offense more than Pittsburgh's, but I think this might be the game where we see the turnover-prone side of Brett Favre emerge. I think the Steelers O-line is the difference in the game. If they dominate like they did 2 weeks ago against the Chargers, they can beat anyone. If Big Ben gets time (which you know he loooves) he can pick apart any defense. Mendenhall has stepped up to fill the void left by Slow Willie Parker, and it really looks like it's coming together. But... don't the Vikings look like the team of destiny right now? Who is going to beat them? They should have lost to San Francisco. You should not be able to score in that situation. They should have lost to Baltimore last week. The Ravens had every bit of momentum, the Vikings defense could do nothing against them, and they miss the game winning field goal as time expires. Oh Steven Hauschka, bless his heart, he must be the sickest man on the planet. But they didn't lose those games. They didn't lose any game. I think someone up there is a Brett Favre fan. That's all I'm gonna say.
New England (-14.5) over TAMPA BAY
I don't particularly like taking these gigantic 2 TD lines, but if the Patriots are going to win 59-0 against Tennessee in the snow, don't you think they could win 42-10 on a neutral field in London? This game should not be close, and I don't know if I would take Tampa Bay even if the spread was 30... I would have to think about it...
Buffalo (+7) over CAROLINA
Has anyone noticed that I have yet to pick to a home team? Anyways, you are probably expecting me to fill this space with justification for the Bills winning a game on the road. Well, I don't have any. The Panthers are a better team, but not by much, and the Bills did pull the upset last week. Look for T.O. to reemerge this week. Ballsy Pick - BUF 20, CAR 16.
HOUSTON (-3) over San Francisco
Ah, there's the home team. Thank goodness. I continue to be enthralled by the talent of the Houston Texans. I think they could easily be 5-1 at this point, if only they had some consistency in their play. The offense is high-powered and the defense has loads of potential, especially with Super Mario Williams and the pass rush. I think San Francisco is good, but got a little big-headed after beating up on their division. They were embarrassed by Atlanta and they had a lot to think about over the bye week.
New York Jets (-6.5) over OAKLAND
As long as Sanchez keeps the ball away from Nnamdi Asomugha, I see no reason we should see a repeat loss for the Jets or a repeat win for the Raiders. The Jets might be in trouble if they throw 6 interceptions again, but I feel like that is unlikely. Also, look for this Jets defense to return to early season form. They should have a field day against Jamarcus "Why am I still starting?" Russell.
New Orleans (-7) over MIAMI
I have heard murmurs, nothing substantial yet, but some people think this might be the week the Saints slip up. I completely disagree. They have given me no reason to think they would do such a thing. Had I picked a week for them to falter, it would have been last week. They didn't slow down at all. What is it about the Dolphins defense that makes people think they can stop Drew Brees? If someone has an answer to that, please enlighten me. I think the Dolphins offense is better than people realize, but that's just not enough against the Saints. Also, the argument that the Saints might lose because they are being taken out of the dome is ridiculous. It's Miami. It's not Foxborough or Pittsburgh, ok? It's Miami.
Atlanta (+4) over DALLAS
If you haven't noticed by now, I usually pick the Chargers (because they are my team), the Texans (because they make up most of my fantasy rosters), and the Falcons (just beacuse I think they have the potential to be very good). The Falcons have sort of flown under the radar this year. They have quietly gotten off to a 4-1 start (their only loss @ the Patriots) and just like the Texans, I can't stay away from them. I think they have a decent chance to win every week. I really like that team.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) over Arizona
Last week, the Giants looked dreadful and the Cardinals looked unstoppable, on both sides of the ball. I think that gets switched this week. The Giants are at home, and they are pissed that the Saints embarrassed them in the biggest game of their season so far. Eli comes out and shreds the Cardinals D (throwing to Hakeem Nicks, not Mario Manningham). And the defense has a point to prove. They want us to know that the Saints got the best of the them but it's not going to happen again. That's not who they are. Big win for the Giants, by more than 14 points.
Philadelphia (-7) over WASHINGTON
Same principle applies for Philly here. Even though they only lost by 4, they way they played last week was embarrassing. It would have been embarrassing even if they had won it in the end. They just played so poorly, so uncaringly, that they HAVE to come out in this game and crush the Redskins. They are in a tough division and they need to show us that they can win the games they are supposed to win, along with the tough ones.
Before I wrap up this post, I thought I would start listing my starting fantasy rosters here, just so you can get a taste of how much my teams have been underperforming. On paper, my teams are AWESOME. And yet I am 2-4 in both leagues. Go figure
WeLikeSportz - QB Tom Brady, RB1 Steven Jackson, RB2 Steve Slaton, WR1 Vincent Jackson, WR2 Hakeem Nicks, RB/WR Cedric Benson, TE Chris Cooley, K David Akers, DEF Green Bay.
League of Imported Spirits - QB Peyton Manning, RB1 Michael Turner, RB2 Pierre Thomas, WR1 Andre Johnson, WR2 Anquan Boldin, RB/WR1 Hines Ward, RB/WR2 Steve Breaston, TE Owen Daniels, K Kris Brown, DEF New York Jets.
I need to win both match ups. This is a huge week. There is one team in each league who is 6-0 and I need to start making my comebacks now.
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