NFL Week 4

You have probably become accustomed to me ranting for a few paragraphs about the current state of the NFL before moving on to my predictions for the upcoming week. Well, too bad.

Home team in CAPS. And as always, red font indicates that I think the underdog will beat the spread.

Favorite Spread Underdog
HOUSTON -9 Oakland
Tennessee -3 JACKSONVILLE
NEW ENGLAND -2 Baltimore
Cincinnati -6 CLEVELAND
New York Giants -8.5 KANSAS CITY
CHICAGO -10 Detroit
WASHINGTON -7.5 Tampa Bay
INDIANAPOLIS -10 Seattle
NEW ORLEANS -7 New York Jets
Buffalo -1 MIAMI
SAN FRANCISCO -9.5 St. Louis
Dallas -3 DENVER
PITTSBURGH -6.5 San Diego
MINNESOTA -3.5 Green Bay

This week has possibly the highest number of terrible match ups in the history of professional football. And when I say terrible match ups, I mean either one team is downright awful and they should lose by 50, or both teams are awful and they would be lucky to score 10 combined. Take a look:

1) Houston's offense should go nuts against the Raiders
2) The Titans are the most disappointing team in the NFL and the Jaguars are just plain boring
3) The Browns are playing...
4) The Giants (who some have ranked as the number 1 team in the league) go against the hapless Chiefs (who have thus far given up 14,524 points)
5) The Redskins lost to the Rams and the Bucs are starting Josh Johnson (who is umm... who is he?)
6) The Bills have decided not to throw to their best receiver and apparently think NFL games last 45-55 minutes and the Dolphins have announced that the Wildcat will be used for 100% of their playcalling and they'll just have Ronnie Brown play QB
7) The Rams are playing...

That's half of the games right there!! And I was tempted to put Seattle at Indianapolis in there too because even though Seattle should be a decent team, you know the Colts are gonna win by at least 21. You know what? I am going to add that game. Now it's 8 out of 14. Not good.

And because these games are going to be so bad, I refuse to validate them with formal explanations to my picks for them:

HOUSTON (-9) over Oakland 35-10
Tennessee (-3) over JACKSONVILLE 16-13
Cincinnati (-6) over CLEVELAND 27-3
New York Giants (-8.5) over KANSAS CITY 30-9
Tampa Bay (+7.5) over WASHINGTON 14-9 (Redskins win the game, but don't cover)
INDIANAPOLIS (-10) over Seattle 44-17
MIAMI (+1) over Buffalo 16-14
SAN FRANCISCO (-9.5) over St. Louis 28-6

Good that's over.

Now for the remaining 6 games on the docket, I am expecting fairly good match ups from all of them.

NEW ENGLAND (-2) over Baltimore
Sigh... this one is tough. Toughest one so far this year. I can completely understand why it is only a 2 point spread. And I could see both team being the favorite. I believe New England gets the nod because they are at home. If I was choosing this game purely based on the level of talent of the individual players on the field, I would have to go with Baltimore. But there's more to it. There's Bill Belichick. There's the city of New England. There's that inexplicable... something about Tom Brady, and I just can't pick against him at home. I can't do it. This game is going to be close, I'm 99.9% sure. It should come down to one possession. And if you only had one possession, would you rather have Brady or Flacco under center? Yeah, that's what I thought.

Detroit (+10) over CHICAGO
I don't think people are giving Detroit enough credit. Matthew Stafford has played much better than we could have expected, and I know the Redskins aren't the greatest competition ever, but they are an NFL team, and we have to recognize that Detroit bested them last week. The 10 point spread here seems a little to high for me. The Bears do not have an offense that is going to score more than 30 points, not even against the Lions defense. They pound the run game and chew up the clock and leave the rest to the defense. So let's say the Bears score 28 points, I certainly believe the Lions offense can score 18. There's no escaping the fact that this is a much improved offense. Calvin Johnson and Kevin Jones lead a group of young up-and-comers who can move the ball. I don't think the Lions will win the game, I would put there chances at about 20-1. The Bears D is just too good. But I think they keep it within 10 points.


New York Jets (+7) over NEW ORLEANS
I don't think people are giving the Jets enough credit either. When you have a 3-0 team listed as more of an underdog than the Cleveland Browns... something isn't right. This is a very good defense, and if they can get a consistent run game going with Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, Mark Sanchez definitely looks up to the task of managing games. They beat the Patriots, and in this decade, that has to be recognized as a quality win. The Saints had some problems throwing the ball last week against Buffalo and if they don't get those sorted out, this Jets pass rush could present a lot of problems for Brees. So, in conclusion, I am making my Ballsy Pick of the Week and choosing the Jets to WIN. That's right. Straight up WIN. You play to win the game.

Dallas (-3) over DENVER
I'm not buying the Broncos. No sir, I am selling them hard. Yeah yeah, their defense has given up a total of 16 points in 3 games. Even considering their competition, that's impressive. But still, come on people, this is not going to last. They get a real test with Dallas coming tomorrow and I will give them some credit if they win. However, I do not think they will. The game will be close in the second half, but eventually Dallas will pull away and win by double digits.

San Diego (-6.5) over PITTSBURGH
This is absolutely outrageous. The Steelers are 1-2, they have lost to 2 teams that they definitely should have beaten, and they are still expected to beat us by a touchdown! We should be the favorites. We are one 4th and 2 conversion against the best team in the NFL away from being 3-0 right now and we don't get any respect. The Steelers just don't have it without Polamalu and the running game, ok? Stop trying to make excuses, they just aren't as good anymore. LT is coming back for SD and our passing game has been near unstoppable thus far. We win this game. No doubt in my mind.

MINNESOTA (-3.5) over Green Bay
This game was almost as tough as the the Patriots-Ravens, but not quite. I have much more faith in Minnesota in big games right now than I do in Green Bay. That win last week had to have been a huge boost for the Vikings. The 49ers look like a very good team this year and Favre seems just as magical as ever. Even though the play was complete luck, it doesn't happen if it's Tavaris Jackson out there. Again, I think this game will be close, but ultimately, the Vikings have the better defense and the better running game. They win by 7.