NFL Week 5

In my opinion, 4 weeks is enough to get a feel for the season. Of course, I am not so near-sighted that I believe the current standings are going to hold until January, but I can tell which teams are in contention and which teams are just not going to cut it. I'm just gonna give you a quick run down of what I have seen so far:

AFC
1. Patriots
2. Ravens
3. Colts
4. Chargers
Wild Card Contenders: Jets, Steelers, Broncos, Bengals (in that order)
In Between Teams: Texans, Jaguars (these teams are here because I can't bring myself to put them in playoff contention at this point, but I'm not ready to write them off entirely)
Stinky Teams: Browns, Dolphins, Bills, Titans, Chiefs, Raiders (not necessarily in that order, but it really doesn't matter)

NFC
1. Giants
2. Vikings
3. Saints
4. 49ers
Wild Card Contenders: Eagles, Falcons, Bears, Packers, Cowboys
In Between Team: Cardinals, Seahawks
Stinky Teams: Redskins, Lions, Panthers, Buccaneers, Rams

Just to clarify, this is my playoff projection based on the first quarter of the year. I am anticipating changes come week 17. These are not, in any way, set in stone... although I have completely written off the 11 stinky teams, sorry.

Anyways, let's get started with the week 5 games:

Minnesota (-10) over ST. LOUIS
The Rams could play 16 home games and I'm not sure they could win any. I have no incentive to choose them to cover against the Vikings, especially if Favre is still alive... He is, right?.. Use the mirror, see if he's breathing... Ok good. Yeah I'm not going to pick them against anyone with a 4-0 record. Not even Denver.

KANSAS CITY (+8) over Dallas
Following the Cowboys-Broncos game last week, my buddy Kyle texted me and said something real snarky about how his fantasy defense (Denver) had come up big again. I had previously made fun of him for picking them up... but that's not important. I responded with this: "Yada, yada. They got lucky. Dallas has lost all signs of offensive competency". Just to clarify, I only used "yada, yada" because he puts it in texts all the time. I was mocking him. Anyways, if I'm being honest, I only said that because I hate Denver. Did I really believe it at the time? No. I wanted an excuse for why the Broncos are 4-0. But now that I think about it, it's true. The Cowboys offense looks lost without T.O. Injuries have slowed down the run game, and Romo's touch seems to be gone. Can they beat the Chiefs? Probably. By more than a TD? I think not.

CAROLINA (-3.5) over Washington
Just shoot me now. This game is going to be awful. Why did I pick the Panthers? I don't know. They have better uniforms, how about that?

Tampa Bay (+15) over PHILADELPHIA
The Eagles are still a little banged up, and Josh Johnson (hey, at least it isn't John Johnson) did well enough to keep the Buccs in the game. He didn't win but he was better than Byron "how poorly do I have to play before I get benched?" Leftwich. I just think the 15 point spread is kind of ridiculous. I think the Buccs could easily lose by only 14 points. Eagles win though, no questions there.

Oakland (+15) over NEW YORK GIANTS
Jamarcus Russell (or as I like to call him, "Alex Smith 2.0") continues to impress as he completed a miraculous 36% of his passes last week, for a mind-boggling 128 yards. If I asked you what you thought his rank was in terms of completion percentage and QB rating, you would say 32nd right? Well you would be wrong. He is 33rd. Go ahead look it up. He is sooo bad, that despite the fact there are only 31 OTHER TEAMS in the NFL, he still can't secure the spot of 32nd. Sad. Oh wait... I chose them to cover... crap... um... (searching for justification...). Oh that's right, Eli is questionable and the spread is -15. That is enough for me. Do you know who his backup is? David Carr. Yeah... let that sink in for a while.

Cleveland (+6) over BUFFALO
The Browns have to win a game sometime, right? We aren't going to have another 0-16 season. So why not now? The Bills looked equally crappy last week as they took a pounding from Chad Henne and the Dolphins. The Browns barely lost to a much improved Bengals team and I still believe the game should have been a tie. Derek Anderson has much more experience than Brady Quinn and he did lead the Browns to a 10-6 record just a few years ago. I think he is the man to start in Cleveland. So, in conclusion, my Ballsy Pick of The Week goes to the Browns, upsetting the Bills 20-17!!!

BALTIMORE (-6) over Cincinnati
Despite their impressive start, the Bengals just aren't as good as the Ravens. There is a huge discrepancy in defensive talent and I would give a pretty decent offensive edge to Baltimore as well. Add in the fact that it is a Ravens home game and they are coming in pissed after losing to New England, Cincy doesn't have much of a chance. I don't think it's gonna be close.

Pittsburgh (-10.5) over DETROIT
I picked the Lions to cover a +10 spread last week and they let me down. That defense just isn't ready for NFL offenses. Stafford and the offense pleasantly surprised me again, but he went down in the 2nd half and they lost by 24. He might not play and I don't think they'll be able to stick with the Steelers.

Atlanta (+2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO
This should be a good game. Atlanta comes in fresh after a bye week and they HAVE to be thinking up ways to get Tony Gonzalez and Michael Turner going. The 49ers are coming in hot after an absolute destruction of the Rams. Their defense is fast and physical, and they roughed up poor Kyle Boller. Matt Ryan better be ready. Shaun Hill still needs to prove he can be a starting NFL QB, and the Atlanta D is a good challenge. I think the Falcons win a close one.

New England (-3) over DENVER
At this point, I am begging for a Broncos loss. Please, Tom Brady. Please shred their defense into little tiny pieces. If they beat the Patriots, it's all over. I will have to admit that they are as good as their record. I am hoping the Patriots win by 30 but I don't think that's going to happen. Denver's defense IS good and they will be able to keep it close. Patriots by 7.

Houston (+5.5) over ARIZONA
I think it's time to give up on the Cardinals. We all enjoyed their Cinderella story last year, but that's over now. This is 2009 and the Cardinals have turned back into a pumpkin. Maybe a squash... which vegetable is most depressing? Anyways, I also think it's about time for the Texans offense to wake up and get going. The way I see it, as of right now, there are only 2 or 3 teams separating them from a wild card. They need to get it in gear. Texans win by 10.

SEATTLE (-1.5) over Jacksonville
If Hasselbeck plays, the Seahawks have a good chance in this one. They always play better when he is in the lineup. He is the heart and sole of the team. The defense is definitely capable of stopping Garrard, but they need to focus on Jones-Drew. If they can't stop him early, it's going to be a long day. Now, I'm not saying Seneca Wallace is a bad QB, but this team needs Hasselbeck. I say he plays and they win.

Indianapolis (-4) over TENNESSEE
I saw an article this week that was entitled "Are the Titans the best 0-4 team ever?" I thought to myself, "They very well could be. Has a team ever started so poorly after finishing with the league's best record the year before?" I did some research, and here's what I found: The 1955 Detroit Lions started 0-6, one year after going 9-2-1 and appearing in the NFL Championship game. Also the 1987 Giants, 1999 Broncos, and 2002 Rams all started 0-4 following 14-2 seasons. The Titans play the Colts and Patriots next so I would not be at all surprised to see them tie the Lions for that record. Oh as for the Colts... Peyton Manning is real good.

New York Jets (-2) over MIAMI
Don't get too excited Dolphins fans. It's only a 2 point spread because you rolled over a terrible Bills team last week, and you are at home. That's it. Don't get tricked into thinking the game is going to be decided by a field goal. Because it is. The Jets are the better team and you can't just run the Wildcat, their defense is too good. Also, make sure you can protect Henne because the Jets are gonna blitz all over the place. If he starts getting knocked down and sacked, it's not going to turn out well.