Week 5 NFL Power Rankings

The Worst of the Worst

32. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4), No Move

The Jaguars are going to go 0-16.

The Winless and The Team that Only Beat the Jaguars (Which is Kind of Like Being Winless Anyways)

31. Tampa Buccaneers (0-4), No Move

30. Oakland Raiders (1-3), Down 1

29. New York Giants (0-4), Down 5

28. Pittsburgh Steelers (0-4), Down 2

This is a relatively surprising group of teams, isn’t it? Well, besides Oakland. Who would have thought that the Buccaneers, Giants, and Steelers would be three of the four winless teams a quarter of the way through the season? I imagine that there were people who predicted all three of them in the playoffs this year (not me, of course, I only picked two of them).

The Buccaneers blew another lead, this time against Arizona at home, which should never happen. The Giants were blown out for the third straight week, which should never happen unless you play Denver three times. And the Steelers were shredded by the potent receiving combination of Jerome Simpson and 58-year-old Greg Jennings. Did I mention that Matt Cassel was throwing to them? Starting 0-4 is more than enough for me to cross off these teams. And I was ready to cross off the Raiders in July.

The “I Can’t Really Think of Anything Witty but These Teams are Really Bad”

27. Minnesota Vikings (1-3), Up 3

26. Arizona Cardinals (2-2), Up 1

25. St. Louis Rams (1-3), Down 5

I don’t understand how a team with Adrian Peterson can be so putrid. Even in a winning effort against the lowly Steelers, the Vikings don’t exactly leave you feeling warm and fuzzy. The defense tried desperately to give the game away, but Ben Roethlisberger wouldn’t take it. Conversely, Arizona was more than willing to take the game Greg Schiano was trying to give them. Sorry to say it, but I don’t put much stock in beating a team whose coach should have been fired yesterday.

The Rams, unlike the other two, garnered some small amount of praise from me early on. I thought they were a decent team through the first few weeks, but their absolute stink bomb last Thursday has turned me off completely. Sam Bradford might be out of work soon, and so too might be much touted coach Jeff Fisher.

The Pleasant Early Season Surprises

24. New York Jets (2-2), Down 3

23. Cleveland Browns (2-2), Up 5

Now, I know the Jets were decimated by Tennessee last weekend, but they are still leaps and bounds ahead of where I thought they would be at this point.  The defense is still solid. I don’t know how Rex Ryan does it, but he has wrapped up a sure-fire defensive coordinator job when the Jets finally decide to jump ship. And we have to remember that Geno Smith is a rookie. He’s going to have days like this, where a good defense wraps him up and he inexplicably tries to switch hands with the football behind his back when he’s getting tackled inside his own five-yard line.

The Browns, though, I just don’t get it. What are we playing at here, Cleveland? Are you tanking? Two weeks ago it certainly seemed like you were tanking. I can understand beating the Vikings, but now you go and beat the Bengals? The Bengals are a good team, a playoff team. The Browns are now tied for the division lead and might be right in the thick of things. Although I doubt anyone is going to be surprised if Cleveland loses six straight and Jordan Cameron goes on IR with a stubbed toe.

The Unpleasant Early Season Surprises

22. Washington Redskins (1-3), Up 3

21. Philadelphia Eagles (1-3), Down 2

With the good comes the bad. The Redskins really lucked out playing the Raiders, because at least 25 NFL teams would have made them 0-4 on Sunday. Matt Flynn was unsurprisingly awful (it’s unsurprising because he couldn’t beat out Terrelle Pryor), and I’m going to assume that it wasn’t due to the Redskins defense, which has been proven to be inept.

The Eagles defense is just as bad, and the offense has seemingly gone cold. I did predict that the league would quickly figure out Chip Kelly’s offense, once more tape became available. And that is certainly a factor. But maybe they don’t really have the right pieces (read: Michael Vick). Maybe the Redskins defense played as poorly as any defense has ever played in the first half of that first game. Either way, the Eagles are moving in a decidedly poor direction.

The Roller Coaster

20. Buffalo Bills (2-2), Up 3

So, two weeks ago I was high on the Bills. I liked what I had seen against New England and Carolina, and I picked them to beat the Jets in New York. They didn’t, and they looked bad doing it. Then I swung the other way and gave them no chance against Baltimore at home. Of course, they won and forced Joe Flacco into five interceptions even though their defensive secondary is rife with injuries. So I really don’t know what to do with the Bills right now. Potentially, they are a decent home team and a push over on the road.

The Sneaking Suspicion

19. Carolina Panthers (1-2), Up 3

The sneaking suspicion here is that the Panthers might be pretty good. Look at what they have done so far. They lost a close game to a consensus top five team, Seattle. They were going in for the winning score when DeAngelo Williams fumbled the game away. Then they lost a fluky game at Buffalo, fueled by a poor decision by the coaching staff on a 4th-and-1 and a pass interference penalty. In Week 3, they decimated the Giants. I know I wrote off New York and they are undeniably bad, but you don’t often see teams shut out. The Jaguars haven’t even been shut out. Out of their Week 4 bye, the Panthers play Arizona, Minnesota, St. Louis, and Tampa Bay. They could be 5-2 after that stretch and pushing for a wild card in the NFC.

The Dashed Dream

18. Tennessee Titans (3-1), Down 2

Remember that the power rankings are based on the team that would take the field right now. And for the Titans, that team includes Ryan Fitzpatrick. With Jake Locker, the Titans undeniably deserve to be higher, probably in the top 12. But you have to think that Fitzpatrick is a major downgrade. Locker isn’t the greatest QB ever, but he seems to have made progress and built a nice rapport with his receivers. I really liked the way the Titans were playing, and figured them to be a factor in the AFC South. However, without Locker for at least the next few games against Kansas City, Seattle, and San Francisco, and an especially packed AFC wild card picture, I’m afraid the Titans are going to drift back into obscurity.

The Major Uncertainties

17. Dallas Cowboys (2-2), Down 3

16. Houston Texans (2-2), Down 1

15. Baltimore Ravens (2-2), Down 2

These three were all losers in Week 4. Baltimore took the worst of it, losing to the Bills. Dallas and Houston lost to markedly better teams in San Diego and Seattle respectively, but choked away second half leads making huge mistakes down the stretch. The thing that separates these teams from the bottom half of the league is their talent. We know they have the ability.

The Cowboys have Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and DeMarcus Ware. The Texans have Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, and J.J. Watt. The Ravens have Ray Rice, Torrey Smith, and Terrell Suggs. These aren’t no-name rosters. But for some reason or another, they don’t play up to potential. That’s why they land in the middle of the ranks even though all three of them might still be the favorite to win their division. I don’t need to see breakout ability; I need to see consistency.

The Teams that Should be 4-0

14. Detroit Lions (3-1), Up 3

13. San Diego Chargers (2-2), Up 5

How nuts would everyone be going if the Lions and Chargers were 4-0? We are only a handful of plays away from that being reality.

The Lions lit up the Bears last week, and it was much more lopsided than the 40-32 final score indicates. Chicago racked up 16 points in the dying minutes of the fourth quarter to make it look competitive, but the Bears were never in it. Reggie Bush had a big day on the ground, and the Lions defense caused four Bears turnovers.

As for the Chargers, you can say whatever you want about the underwhelming run game, or the lackluster pass defense, or the banged up receiving corps. None of it matters, because Philip Rivers is in the zone. I don’t know how he got there or why he ever left, but he’s there. Look at his numbers: 105/142, 1,199 yards, 11 TDs, 2 INTs. He’s completing 73.9% of his passes, which is a humongous number. He has only been sacked six times in four games. I mean, he’s playing like a top five quarterback again, and I’ll take him over anyone not named Manning or Brees right now.

The Black and Blue

12. Atlanta Falcons (1-3), Down 2

The poor Falcons played a murderous schedule over the first four weeks, which happened to coincide with a rash of injuries to their squad. They had to go to New Orleans and Miami, and hosted New England. They lost each of those games by one score and they stalled in the red zone twice at the end of games with a chance to tie or go ahead. I don’t think the Falcons are as great as they have been in previous season, but I don’t think they are dead in the water either.

Their upcoming schedule is full of cream-puffs. In the next six, they get the Jets, Tampa Bay (twice), Arizona, Carolina, and Seattle at home. That should be at least 5-1 and I wouldn’t be shocked if they took all six. At this point, they aren’t going to catch the Saints in the NFC South, but 10-6 probably gets them to the playoffs. And I can still see them winning ten with their schedule.

The Initially Overrated

11. Chicago Bears (3-1), Down 3

10. Cincinnati Bengals (2-2), Down 5

I had the Bears and Bengals ranked too high last week. The Bears don’t deserve a top ten spot after their performance at Detroit. They were dominated in every facet of the game. They couldn’t get anything started until it was too late. And they couldn’t stop the Lions whatsoever. Jay Cutler threw up a stinker, but he does that every so often, so that doesn’t shock me. The defense is what shocked me. They are not a shutout defense. That much is obvious now. They are a takeaway defense. They rely on forcing turnovers, and when they don’t win that battle, they aren’t good enough to carry a poor offensive performance.

The Bengals came out absolutely flat against Cleveland. They could only muster 266 yards of offense and six measly points. Andy Dalton barely completed 50% of his passes and turned the ball over twice; A.J. Green was shut down by Joe Hayden; and up-and-coming RB Giovani Bernard could not get the ground game going, totaling only 37 yards. The Bengals had risen all the way to number five in my rankings, but take a tumble with this loss. If you want to be a playoff team, you cannot lose these division games.

The Weak Unbeaten

9. Kansas City Chiefs (4-0), Up 3

Look, I know it seems like I’m picking on the Chiefs. Yes, they have looked very sharp. Their defense is great. Andy Reid is a masterful coach. Here’s my only counterargument: The Chiefs have played the Jaguars (No. 32), the Cowboys (No. 17), the Eagles (No. 21), and the Giants (No. 29).

Kansas City is a top ten team, I give them that much.  But I don’t know that I allow them to rise much higher until they play Denver.

The Unforeseen Risers

8. Indianapolis Colts (3-1), Up 1

7. Miami Dolphins (3-1), No Move

Not much change here. The Colts blasted the Jaguars, but what else is new? And the Dolphins got blasted by the Saints, but I think the Saints are really, really good. The game got away from Miami and New Orleans never stepped off the gas. Plus, the Saints don’t lose at home.

We have good tests for these teams in Week 5, as Indy welcomes Seattle, and Miami hosts Baltimore. I still like both teams a lot and I expect both to win against formidable opponents.

The Still Really Good Despite Their Records

6. San Francisco 49ers (2-2), Up 5

5. Green Bay Packers (1-2), Up 1

Well, the 49ers rebounded well after their bad losses to Seattle and Indy. They really took it to the Rams. While the 49ers didn’t look unbelievably strong themselves, just the fact that they made the Rams look so bad instills confidence. I expect them to be solid going forward.

The Packers had a bye, which probably came at a good time for them. They had extra time for what looks like a great match up with division rival Detroit. This is about the time when Green Bay rips off nine straight wins and we forget they were ever 1-2.

The Unblemished

4. New England Patriots (4-0), No Move

3. Seattle Seahawks (4-0), Down 1

2. New Orleans Saints (4-0), Up 1

I still love the Patriots. I don’t know how they keep winning, but they do. I’m going to keep riding the Patriots until they give me a reason not to.

But, we do have some movement near the top here. The Saints leap frog the Seahawks in this week’s rankings, and I have a very simple explanation as to why. My power rankings are based on a neutral site contest between any two given teams. If these two played in Seattle, the Seahawks would win. If they played in New Orleans, the Saints would win. We can probably agree on that.

But who would win on a neutral field? I argue that the Saints would squeak it out. Seattle just turned in their second lackluster road performance. They easily could have lost at Carolina, and they should have lost at Houston. Yes, they are 2-0 on the road so far, but they have been less than impressive. I think the Saints are a slightly better team away from the Superdome than the Seahawks are away from Century Link.

The Broncos

1. Denver Broncos (4-0), No Move

The Broncos have not moved a single spot in these rankings, and I don’t know that they will. At all.