Thursday, October 17, 2013

Week 7 NFL Power Rankings


The Most Awful

32. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6), No Move

We saw some signs of life from the Jaguars this week. They played their best game of the season against the best team in the NFL. Yes, they lost by 16, and it wasn’t all that close after halftime. But they put up a tougher first half fight than I ever thought they were capable of. Chad Henne is much better than Blaine Gabbert and is not that much worse than any other replacement level QB would be. Justin Blackmon is a major asset and gives this team at least a chance to be competitive the rest of the season. Looking at their schedule, I’m not willing to redact my 0-16 prediction just yet. But with the current roster, they should be in position to win one or two games in 2013.

The Pretty Awful

31. Minnesota Vikings (1-4), Down 4
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5), No Move
29. New York Giants (0-6), Up 2
28. Oakland Raiders (2-4), Down 2

The Vikings have an absolutely dreadful defense. And the offense isn’t much better. They bring in Josh Freeman this week to see if he can get things going. If he can’t, then yes, they are this bad.

The Buccaneers, and all their talent, continue to astound me. I wasn’t completely on their bandwagon at the start of the year, but I didn’t expect this. To be fair, their schedule looks tougher and tougher as time goes on. The Jets and Cardinals aren’t actually as bad as we think they are (which you’ll see later). The Patriots and Saints are obviously really good. And the Eagles are starting to heat up. I’m not excusing the 0-5 record, but it isn’t the worst 0-5 ever.

The Giants get a slight bump for looking relatively competent against Chicago last Thursday. They didn’t win, of course, because Eli Manning will not stop throwing picks, but they only lost by six on the road to a solid team. Plus, can’t we see them reeling off seven straight wins and finishing 8-8? I can.

The Raiders looked like their old stinky selves against the Chiefs. The demotion comes mostly from Terrelle Pryor’s utter lack of effort to tackle Husain Abdullah after he threw a terrible interception. Shame on you.

The Rough Start

27. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4), Up 2

I’m not convinced that the Steelers are this bad. They won a stereotypically Steelers-y game over the Jets to finally get them in the win column. They picked off Geno Smith twice, accounting for their first turnovers of the season. Ben Roethlisberger was efficient through the air, and avoided turning the ball over for the first time this year. It wasn’t a pretty win, but that’s the Steelers for you. If the defense steps up, and the Steelers figure out their offensive line situation (BIG if), they would be an average team. With a solid offensive line unit, they would probably be a playoff team.

The Jekyll and Hyde

26. Carolina Panthers (2-3), Up 2

Make up your mind, Carolina!!! Either you’re good or you’re bad! You cannot be both!

The Sinkers

25. Washington Redskins (1-4), Down 2
24. St. Louis Rams (3-3), Up 1
23. Buffalo Bills (2-4), Up 1
22. Cleveland Browns (3-3), Down 3

The Redskins are sinking in the sense that they went to the playoffs last year and now look totally incompetent. They are sinkers overall in 2013.

I predict the other three teams here to sink from this point forward. With a seemingly solid combined record of 8-10, you might be fooled into thinking that the Rams, Bills, and Browns might stick around in the playoff chase. Well, they won’t. I don’t know how the Rams have three wins. It makes no sense. They aren’t good at football. The Bills have zero quarterbacks, which is a problem. And the Browns have Brandon Weeden, which is worse than having zero quarterbacks. All pretenders, all of them.

The Fallen Stars

21. Atlanta Falcons (1-4), No Move
20. Houston Texans (2-4), Down 5

In my Week 1 Power Rankings, these teams were both in the top 10. The Falcons were number three, and the Texans, number eight. The Falcons I don’t feel so terrible about because they have had an apocalyptical run of injury. It doesn’t matter how good you are, you can’t win when that happens. As for Houston, they just aren’t the team we thought they were. I don’t know exactly what changed for them (nothing happened personnel wise), but they are stinking it up. I’m ready to cross off both teams for the year. The only consolation for both of them in light of their precipitous declines is that they have each other.

The Frisky Teams

19. Arizona Cardinals (3-3), Up 1
18. New York Jets (3-3), No Move

Like I said, the Cardinals and Jets aren’t that bad. The Cardinals defense continues to impress. They were on the field all day against San Francisco. The offense continually put them in tough positions. They held the 49ers to field goals on three drives that went inside their 30 yard-line. The score was 22-20 in the fourth quarter. Without the major defensive lapses that allowed Vernon Davis free reign of the end zone, they probably win the game.

The Jets didn’t look great against Pittsburgh, but there are going to be growing pains with Geno Smith. The team has a lot of raw talent, especially on the defensive side of the ball. If Smith plays smart, mistake-free ball they are going to be right in it in a lot of contests. Many people thought they might be the worst team in the NFL coming into the year. From what I’ve seen, they are far from it.

The Upward Trend

17. Philadelphia Eagles (3-3), Up 5

I like Nick Foles. I liked him at Arizona. I liked him in various relief efforts last year. And I liked him a lot last week. He has a sparkling stat line so far in 2013 – 41/61 for 542 yards, 6 TDs, 0 INTs. But the most important stat: He is 2-0 against Michael Vick’s 1-3. The question with Foles was whether or not he could operate Chip Kelly’s offense. I’m going to say yes.

The Downward Trend

16. Tennessee Titans (3-3), No Move

I don’t like Ryan Fitzpatrick. I didn’t like him at Harvard. I didn’t like him in various relief efforts in Buffalo. And I didn’t like him at all last week. He has an underwhelming stat line so far in 2013 – 41/78, 526 yards, 2 TDs, 4 INTs. But the most important stat: He is 0-2 against Jake Locker’s 3-1 .The question with Fitzpatrick was whether or not he should still be in the National Football League. I’m going to say no. See what I did there?

The Hodgepodge

15. Detroit Lions (4-2), Down 1
14. San Diego Chargers (3-3), Up 3
13. Baltimore Ravens (3-3), Down 1
12. Dallas Cowboys (3-3), Up 1

This is just a big lump of teams I don’t really know what to do with. They have all shown at times that they can be veritable contenders. But they have all also shown inconsistency and a propensity to choke in big moments. They could all make the playoffs, and they could all miss the playoffs. More likely, two of them make it and two of them fall short. Don’t ask me who though, because I still need more time to figure this group out.

The Rocks

11. Chicago Bears (4-2), No Move
10. Miami Dolphins (3-2), No Move

You’re going to love this analogy. The Bears and Dolphins aren’t the most exciting teams ever. They don’t really have explosive offenses. They don’t blow people out like the Saints and Broncos. But they play consistent football, take the ball away on defense, and win close games. They are solid and boring. Like rocks. Get it?

The Overachievers

9. Indianapolis Colts (4-2), Down 2
8. Cincinnati Bengals (4-2), Up 1
7. Kansas City Chiefs (6-0), Up 1

The Colts played a secretly terrible game at San Diego on Monday. Drops don’t really jump out at you from the box score. If we counted all the drops the Colts had that ended drives as turnovers, then everyone would notice. Now, the Chargers aren’t a terrible team, but they are a team the Colts should be able to beat. If these two teams played again on Sunday in San Diego, by some massive oversight by the NFL schedule makers, I’m not so sure that the Colts wouldn’t take that one.

The Bengals won on Sunday, which is what we really care about. But their inability to put away a Bills team led by Thaddeus Lewis is worrisome. They led by 14 in the fourth quarter, and ended up having to go eight minutes deep into overtime to grab the W. Maybe this is just the Bengals style, though. Remember when they were the cardiac cats? For a team that I, and many others, believe is going to the playoffs, they might not win a game by more than 10 all year.

You already know how I feel about the Chiefs. They have now beaten six teams with a combined 11-25 record.  Play a real team.

The Contenders

6. San Francisco 49ers (4-2), Down 1
5. New England Patriots (5-1), Up 1
4. Green Bay Packers (3-2), No Move
3. Seattle Seahawks (5-1), No Move
2. New Orleans Saints (5-1), No Move

I chose not to move too much around here, although I had more than enough opportunity to do so. The 49ers, Packers, and Seahawks all won, but looked less than stellar. The Patriots get a slight move up because they did win a hard-fought game. However, the Saints did not drop because I fully believe they lost that game, the Patriots did not win it. The Saints did everything wrong down the stretch. Every single thing. If you replayed those last three minutes 100 times, the Saints win 99 times. The Saints should still be undefeated and I still believe that they are the second best team in football.

The Leader of Men

1. Broncos (6-0), No Move

The final score didn’t look great, but the Broncos never broke a sweat against the Jaguars. They didn’t play anywhere near their ability and they scored 35 points and beat an NFL team by 16. They face better competition this week when they travel to Indianapolis.

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