Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Week 11 Mistakes

8-8.

I am starting to lose my picking mojo. I have been waiting for a breakout week, maybe 12-4 or 11-5, but it never comes. I always end up somewhere around .500. I think my problem is that I get too wrapped up in the favorites, and I don't consider the line so much. It is hard to blow teams out in the NFL and most of the time, games come down to just a few possessions one way or the other. So basically, I need to stop picking these huge lines when I know full-well that a team could be up 17 in the 4th quarter and just turn off the burners. They could end up winning by 3. They might pull their starters, or stop throwing the ball. That's how the NFL works.
Anyways, I did get half the games right:

Indianapolis (-1) over BALTIMORE 17-15
San Francisco (+6.5) over GREEN BAY 24-30
MINNESOTA (-11) over Seattle 35-9
Washington (+11) over DALLAS 6-7 (Ballsy Pick of the Week SUCCESSFUL)
New Orleans (-11.5) over TAMPA BAY 38-7
NEW ENGLAND (-10) over New York Jets 31-14
San Diego (-3) over DENVER 32-3
Philadelphia (-3) over CHICAGO 24-20

On the other hand, I got half the games wrong too:

CAROLINA (-3) over Miami
Score: MIA 24, CAR 17
I already kind of explained this one. I knew the Panthers were awful. I should have stuck with my gut feeling.

DETROIT (-3.5) over Cleveland
Score: DET 38, CLE 37
I don't even care that I missed this one, what a game it was. Two of the worst teams in the NFL, both 1-8, playing theirs hearts out in Detroit. The outcome of this game was practically meaningless. No one was watching. No one really cared. But boy did Matthew Stafford show us something. All of a sudden, his future looks much, much brighter.

JACKSONVILLE (-8.5) over Buffalo
Score: JAC 18, BUF 15
Just a lousy game. But Jacksonville continues to win. Don't look now but they are 6-4 and deeply entrenched in the playoff race. They could be the Miami Dolphins of 2009.

Pittsburgh (-10) over KANSAS CITY
Score: KC 27, PIT 24
.... Oops? You have to cut Pittsburgh a little slack because both Roethlisberger and Batch were injured in the game, but they shouldn't even have been in that situation late in the game.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-6.5) over Atlanta
Score: NYG 34, ATL 31
I still don't know what to think about these teams. The Giants won so I do have to give them the slight advantage here. But I still don't know if either of these teams makes the playoffs at this point. Right now they are both looking in from the outside (sitting at the 7th and 8th spots in the NFC) and does Eli have enough to make a late run? Will Michael Turner be healthy enough? We will have to wait and see.

Cincinnati (-9) over OAKLAND
Score: OAK 20, CIN 17
I feel like I owe Edward an apology for calling him out over this pick... However, he's not going to get one. This was a freak game. The Bengals were missing Cedric Benson, and they should have won the game regardless. They played down to Oakland's level, not the other way around. I don't know if they were looking ahead, past the Raiders, or if they were just flying too high after sweeping both Pittsburgh and Baltimore, but come on! These are the games that Superbowl contenders win. Period.

Arizona (-9) over ST. LOUIS
Score: ARZ 21, STL 13
If Warner hadn't gone down, the Cardinals wold have covered. That's all there is to it.

HOUSTON (-4.5) over Tennessee
Score: TEN 20, HOU 17
I think the Texans are done. They show no heart out there on the field. They find ways to lose every close game they play. They have so much talent on the team, and yet it never comes together in the clutch. I don't see them in the playoffs this year. As for the Titans, they are still written off in my mind. I know they have righted the ship and are only a few games out of contention, but they haven't really beaten anyone, and I think they just dug too big of a hole to climb out of.

Overall Record: 84-74-2
Ballsy Pick of the Week Record: 8-2


Fantasy Update:

League: WeLikeSportz
Defeated Team Eric Peck 131.49 - 123.88
Tom Brady 23.4
Steven Jackson 20.6
Steve Slaton 15.9
Vincent Jackson 7.73
Calvin Johnson 25.73
Hakeem Nicks 9.33
Fred Davis 3.7
David Akers 6.1
Vikings D 19

Record: 6-5 (5th place)

League: League of Imported Spirits
Lost to Team Unicorns 135.76 - 88.81
Peyton Manning 13.86
Anquan Boldin 16.3
Andre Johnson 13.8
Pierre Thomas 10.3
Fred Jackson 8.65
Brent Celek 3.5
Johnny Knox 6.45
Steve Breaston 0.95
John Carney 8
Ravens D 7

Record: 4-7 (7th place)

Don't worry, I'm gonna make the playoffs no matter what.



I am picking the Packers (-11), Cowboys (-13.5), and Giants (-6.5) on Thanksgiving, and I will explain why during the regular post on Saturday. Happy Thanksgiving everyone!






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